Friday, December 31, 2010

Iowa Men's Basketball: Comparing November and December

In November Iowa went 3-4 in it's first 7 games of the season. December was better to them, as they finished 4-2 including, winning two of three to instate rivals. But, besides the record, I want to look at the numbers and see how each player did in December compared to November.

First we'll look at playing time:

Nothing too surprising. The guys at the back of the bench have lost playing time as the schedule gets tougher. Also, Payne hasn't played due to injury, which has increased Cartwright's minutes. Gatens minutes have increased as he has gotten healthier, as have Cole's. The most interesting thing to me is that as the season has gone on, Fran seems to prefer Basabe, Cole, and Brommer over Archie.

Next, let's look at shooting:

Overall, the team shot pretty much the same in November and December. The team effective FG% (weights 3pt FG more than 2pt FG) was 48.93% in November and 48.66% in December. As you can see, Gatens getting healthy and heating up counteracted the negative effects of Eric May slumping all December. Cartwright's shooting slump in December was also counteracted by Cole getting healthier and Brommer shooting better.

Iowa vs Illinois Stats Recap

It was good to see Carver almost full again, even if there were some Illini fans responsible for that. This game marked the beginning of Big 10 conference play. Lets hope the Hawkeyes can pull off some upsets. Now, bullet points!
  • Iowa shot better than their season average. They made 52.5% of their 2pt FG (48.39% season average), 37.5% of their 3pt FG (33.19% season average), for a 53.91% effective FG% (48.81% season average). If you prefer FG% to eFG%, then they shot 46.88% (43.8% season average). 
  • Unfortunately the Illini also shot better than their season average, as they were unconscious all night. They hit 63.33% of their 2pt FG, a ridiculous 72.22% of their 3pt FG. Both of those made for an insane 80.21% (thanks to all those 3pt FG) effective FG%, or 66.67% FG%. They just simply did not miss from when the ball was tipped until the final buzzer sounded.
  • Iowa's one lone advantage coming into this game was their rebounding. Especially, offensive rebounding, as Illinois was 6% worse than NCAA D1 average at letting opponents grab offensive rebounds. As predicted, the offensive rebounding was good. Iowa grabbed 40.54% of all offensive rebounds available. They also grabbed 66.67% of all defensive rebounds available, which is a little low for Iowa, but still better than Illinois. It looks like rebounding is Iowa's strength this year.
  • Technically, Illinois got more rebounds, 28 to 27 (50.91% to 49.09%), than Iowa. But Illinois only pulled down 33.33% of offensive rebounds available and 59.46% of defensive rebounds available. Both totals were about 7% lower than Iowa's totals.
  • Illinois shared the ball really well on offense (it also helped that they rarely missed a shot), finishing 29.78% of their possessions with an assisted FG. Iowa only finished 18.81% of their possessions with an assisted FG.
  • Iowa's defense did do a good job of winning the turnover battle, forcing Illinois into a turnover on 25.32% of their possessions. On offense, Iowa had a 1 to 1 assist to turnover ratio, also turning the ball over on 18.81% of their possessions.
  • In the paint, Iowa scored 30 points or 71.43% of their 2pt FG. Illinois scored 28 points in the paint, good for 73.68% of their 2pt FG. 
  • Iowa's player of the game was Matt Gatens. He had 21 points (0.53 points per minute), hitting 50% of his 2pt FG attempts, and 50% of his 3pt FG attempts. That was good for a 67.86% effective FG% or a 50% FG%. 
  • Jarryd Cole also had a great game with 10 points and 9 rebounds (7 offensive rebounds). He had an insane 77.78 offensive rebounding rate vs Illinois. He also averaged 0.36 rebounds per minute on the court.
  • Overall, Illinois' shooting led to them averaging 1.3 points per possession. Iowa shot much better than their season average, coming up with 1.15 points per possession. In the end, though, it just wasn't enough.

Iowa's Running Game is Going to Be Just Fine

Well, since the mass exodus of Brandon Wegher, Jewel Hampton, and now most likely Adam Robinson, Iowa is pretty thin at running back. While, Coker gave us a glimpse of great things to come, Iowa only has him and DeAndre Johnson left as scholarship backs. The incoming recruits at running back will likely get a chance to log a lot of playing time next year. But, I want to show you guys something:

That is a comparison of all of A-Rob's runs this year and all of Coker's this year. Now, Robinson had almost 100 more carries, but Coker still had over 100 carries total this year. Running behind the same offensive line (Coker even ran behind Koeppel at RG for a majority of the season), Coker had less of his carries go for a loss and for 0-2 yards. Most of Coker's runs actually went for 3-5 yards, while a majority of A-Robs were good for 0-2 yards. They were pretty much even in the amount of 6-9 yard runs they ripped off. However, Coker had 3% more of his carries go for over 10 yards than A-Rob did. To put that last stat into perspective, Coker had 20 carries of over 10 yards in just 114 carries on the year. Robinson had 30 carries of over 10 yards in 203 carries.

Conclusions? Coker is going to be good. Everybody loved Robinson early in the year, and he was only averaging 4.64 YPC. Coker averaged 5.47 YPC this year as a true freshman. As long as he stays healthy there is a bright future ahead for him. Not to mention, that Iowa's offensive line remains virtually intact for the next few years.

Insight Bowl Random Stats Dump

Bullet points!
  • The man of the game was true freshman Marcus Coker. 221 Yards on 33 Carries for a 6.7 YPC and 2 TD. His 6.7 YPC is second this year to A-Rob's performance vs Iowa State (156 Yards 14 carries for 11.14 YPC). Coker averaged over 5 YPC in four of the seven games he carried the ball in this year. A-Rob only did that twice this year.
  • Here's a breakdown of Coker's Runs: 
    • Loss of Yards: 1 Rush (3.03%)
    • 0-2 Yards: 11 Rushes (33.3%)
    • 3-5 Yards: 11 Rushes (33.3%)
    • 6-9 Yards: 4 Rushes (12.12%)
    • 10+ Yards: 6 Rushes (18.18%)
  • Now a look at Stanzi's completions:
    • Less than 10 Yards: 4 Completions (36.36%)
    • 10-19 Yards: 4 Completions (36.36%)
    • 20+ Yards: 3 Completions (27.27%)
  •  Stanzi finished with a good 9.52 YPA because 7 of his 11 completions were for over 10 yards. Other than that Stanzi was inconsistent. This game was his season personified. Early in the game he looked like the Stanzi from the first eight games of the year, but after that he looked like the Stanzi from the last four games of the year. 
  • Stanzi finished with a QB Rating of 113.3, which is actually his worst of the year. In the first eight games of the year he never had a QB Rating worse than 152.9. In the last four games of the year he could never do better than 144.4. His completion percentage was not very good in this game either. He completed only 52.38% of his passes. But, Stanzi didn't have to be great to get the victory, and the win is all that matters.
  • McNutt had four passes directed his way, and caught two of them. His catches were for 14 and 49 yards. That's a 31.5 YPC average. McNutt continued to do what he did all season, he stretched the field. Even if he only caught two balls, they were big plays for Iowa. 
  • Coming into this game Missouri's red zone defense was vaunted, and known as the best in the country. As advertised, they were good.  They held Iowa to 2 FG and 1 TD in four trips. The only reason Iowa didn't score on their fourth trip though, was because they were busy taking a knee to win the game.
  • Missouri's vaunted defense, also held Iowa to 0 three and outs this game.
  • Now to Iowa's defense. Gabbert had a ridiculous day passing. He dinked and dunked the Tiger offense down the field (7.61 YPA), and though he only had 1 passing TD, he constantly had the Tigers in the red zone. 
  • Even though Gabbert completed 71.93% of his passes, it was the two passes he completed to Brett Greenwood and Micah Hyde that were his biggest. Of course Stanzi had 2 interceptions also, but Gabbert's had a bigger impact. Greenwood picked him off in the endzone before halftime, stopping Mizzou from getting any points. Then of course, Hyde's was the game winner. So, while Gabbert may have outplayed Stanzi, Gabbert also made the two biggest mistakes of the game. 
  • Iowa's defense continued to bottle up the run. Allowing only 2.7 YPC to the Tigers.
  • The Hawkeyes also forced Missouri into a three and out on 2 of 11 drives (18.18%). 
  • In the red zone, Iowa was only able to stop them once (Greenwood INT). Otherwise, Missouri scored 3 TD and 1 FG on 5 attempts. 
  • Overall, Iowa was more efficient on the day. They averaged 7.7 yards per play compared to 5.95 by Missouri. Iowa also averaged 0.34 offensive points per play (doesn't include Hyde INT), and Missouri averaged 0.28 offensive points per play (Missouri ran 86 offensive plays to the Hawkeyes' 58).
Finally, congrats to the Hawkeyes on the bowl victory. This team really needed to end the season on a positive note, and it did just that.