Sunday, February 27, 2011

Iowa vs Illinois Round II Recap: 68-81 L

Like so many other games this year, this game was okay, then the second half started.

Bullet Points!
  • Let's start with shooting. Iowa shot 19-42 (45.24%) from inside the three point arc, and 5-17 (29.41%) from outside it. That look's bad enough. What makes it worse, is when we break down the two point field goals a little bit further. Of those 42 two point field goal attempts, Iowa took 16 in the paint. They made 15 of them, or 93.75%. That means, Iowa went 4-26 (15.38%) on two point jump shots outside of the paint. That's terrible. Overall, Iowa shot a 44.9% effective FG%. About 4% lower than their season average.
  • Illinois shot much better than Iowa. They shot 25-38 (65.7%) from two point range, and 6-18 (33.3%) from three point range. They finished the day shooting a 60.7% effective FG%. 
  • This game was not like the last time Iowa and Illinois played. In this game, Iowa didn't beat the Illini any category (except turnovers, and not in the good way). Last time, they beat Illinois in rebounding pretty handily. This time, it was close, but Illinois grabbed 50.2% of all rebounds, while Iowa grabbed 49.8%. On the defensive boards, Illinois came down with 61.1% of Iowa's misses, while Iowa came down with 60.7% of Illinois' misses. On the offensive glass, Illinois grabbed 39.3% of their own misses, while Iowa grabbed 38.9% of their own misses. Hey, at least Iowa kept it closer than they did shooting-wise.
  • Last time they faced off, Iowa won the turnover battle, by forcing Illinois into a turnover on about 25% of their possessions. This time Illinois cut that down to 19.4% of their possessions. Iowa, on the other hand, turned the ball over on 20.9% of their possessions. 
  • Iowa ended 22.39% of their possessions with an assisted field goal. They finished the day with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.07. Illinois had an assist on 31.34% of their possessions yesterday. They finished with a 1.62 assist to turnover ratio.
  • Moving onto players. Melsahn Basabe was Iowa's best player last night. He was very efficient, scoring 17 points on 5-9 from the field (55.5% effective FG%) and 7-7 from the free throw line (1.38 points per scoring attempt). He was pretty quiet on the defensive glass, only grabbing 2 defensive rebounds (9.5% defensive rebounding rate). However, he was like a vacuum cleaner on the offensive glass, sucking up 5 Iowa missed shots (18.5% offensive rebounding rate). He continues to get his points, no matter how many times opposing teams try to double team him.
  • Speaking of double teams, Basabe needs to learn how to get rid of the ball. He had 5 turnovers last night. I'm not sure how many of them were related to him being double teamed, but I can think of at least a couple. When Basabe would catch the ball, he would try to back his man down, and then he either: 1) Would not see the double team coming, and dribble right into it, becoming trapped. 2) Would see the double team coming, try to spin baseline, and either put up a bad shot or get trapped by the baseline and the two defenders. He needs to recognize he's going to get this kind of attention from other teams. When he see's the double, he needs to decide whether he has a good shot or he needs to get rid of the ball to another teammate before he gets trapped. With as good as he is, sometimes it's hard to remember that he's just a freshman. His game is far from perfect, and he still makes mistakes. He'll get better.
  • Gatens continued his streak of meh shooting. Of course, he was in double-digits, scoring 14, but on 5-13 shooting (46.1% effective FG%). Inside that 5-13 performance, also lies a 2-8 (25%) performance from behind the three point line. Gatens has been in a slump shooting from downtown this month. He had improved every month since November (as his thumb injury seemed to get better and go away), until he hit February. Here is a graph to show you:
  •  Somewhere in there, is the Gatens who shot 40% from long range his freshman year. I hope that Gatens comes back for his farewell tour next year.
  • Jarryd Cole had a pretty nice game offensively. He scored 15 points on 6-10 shooting (60% effective FG%) and hitting all 3 free throw attempts (1.31 points per scoring attempt). He had an okay night rebounding, pulling down 4 rebounds (2 offensive and 2 defensive). But, his lack of rebounds, highlights a big problem from last night. Iowa was at a huge height disadvantage. I said in my preview, that Cole on Tisdale would be a big mismatch for Illinois to exploit, and Illinois exploited it. Lob attempts galore. Tisdale had three dunks in this game. Last night Iowa's height disadvantage was on show for the world to see (or however many people get the Big Ten Network, anyway). 
  • Bryce Cartwright, was apparently sick last night, battling "flu-like symptoms." The announcers kept saying they could tell he wasn't himself. I, on the other hand, thought he looked like vintage Cartwright. I mean, other than the fact that he didn't get to 10 points. But, Cartwright scored 8 points on 3-10 shooting (35% effective FG%) and making his only free throw attempt (0.76 points per scoring attempt). He also had 9 assists (55.5% assist rate!), and 4 turnovers (36.3% turnover rate). That is a pretty standard Cartwright game there. He took a lot of shots to get his points, looked good when pushing the ball, allowing his teammates to get open looks, and forcing some passes into guys who are covered well by the defense. It's not spectacular, but it's still damn good. That's what Cartwright is. He's not going to be the star point guard in the Big 10, but he's still a damn solid player. Better than I expected him to be this year.
  • I complain about Cartwright's inefficient scoring a lot. I know I probably do this more than I should. But, one thing I can give him credit for, is his consistency in how he scores. His average points per scoring attempt, has been very consistent for the last three months. Take a look:
  •  Ignore November, as Cartwright wasn't taking as many shots as he is now. But, hey, consistency!
  • Another Cartwright thought. Once again, before halftime, Cartwright knocked down a three pointer at the buzzer. Thanks to @thebstiles on Twitter, I know that's his sixth halftime buzzer beater of the year. Which, had me and every other Hawkeye fan on Twitter, wishing he could do that at the end of games too. 
  • Illinois' big men had fun yesterday. Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale, had 20 and 25 points, respectively. Davis also had 9 rebounds, while Tisdale only had 5. Either way, Tisdale was having a heyday with Cole down low. For some reason, I also remember Davis taking and making a lot of mid-range two point jumpers. Iowa's Jarryd Cole was trying to mimic him last night, and shot 20% (1-5) from out there. Stick to the inside Jarryd.
  • The announcers of this game kept urging Demetri McCamey not to shoot the three. While, I understand their sentiment, considering layups are higher percentage shots and Cartwright couldn't guard McCamey if he was glued to him, McCamey is a good three point shooter. After this game he is shooting 47.4% from behind the arc this year. He was only 2-6 last night, but if he would have taken another three pointer and made it, he would have been up 42.9% for the night. He makes almost 50% of them, that is a high percentage shot for a guy like McCamey. I don't get why they kept being so adamant that he not shoot the three.
  • There was also a WTF moment for Iowa last night. Somehow, while Iowa was trying to press, they let Tisdale (I think, too lazy to check DVR) sneak behind the defense, catch a full court pass, and get an easy dunk. I've got nothing. That sentence says it all.
  • I predicted this game would have about 67 possessions, and ding-ding-ding, it had 67 possessions. I also predicted Iowa would average 0.93 points per possession, and Illinois 1.10. I was on the very under side on both of those. Iowa averaged 1.01 points per possession and Illinois averaged 1.21 points per possession. I predicted a 62-74 loss, and Iowa lost 68-81. 12 point loss, 13 point loss, pretty much the same thing. Glad to see at least one of my predictions was pretty close this year. Too bad it was an Iowa loss.

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