Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Iowa vs Ohio State Men's Basketball Preview: Round 2

Short on time and sleep. So, let's get to it.

Iowa's Offense vs Ohio State's Defense:

Iowa is a pretty mediocre offense overall. They excel at offensive rebounding (9% above NCAA average), and they did win that battle against Ohio State last game. Iowa struggles to shoot the ball though, coming in slightly under the NCAA average in effective FG%. Last time, Iowa shot a 48.3% effective FG%, which is right around their season average.

Ohio State's defense is very good. They have held opponents to 3% below average in shooting this year. Iowa probably won't get to the free throw line very often, considering Ohio State is 81% above average at keeping opponents off of it, and Iowa is 4% below average at getting there. Ohio State has been good at limiting their opponents second chances, but last time Iowa grabbed 45.7% of their misses. So, who knows? Expect Iowa to turn the ball over early and often, as the Buckeyes are 25% better than average at forcing teams to cough it up. On paper, Iowa doesn't match up real well here.

Iowa's Defense vs Ohio State's Offense:

Last time they faced off, Iowa forced a lot of turnovers, won the rebounding battle, and kept Ohio State off the free throw line. All things they are good at. They also allowed the Buckeyes to put up a 61.6% effective FG% and finish 31.25% of their possessions with an assisted field goal. Both things that Iowa has been not so good at, and also things that Ohio State has been very good at. This also looks like bad news for the Hawkeyes.

  •  Iowa player shot tendencies:
  •  Iowa player scoring breakdown:

  • Ohio State player shot tendencies:
  •  Diebler loves the three.
  • Ohio State players scoring breakdown:
  •  Sullinger (17.61 points per game) gets the bulk of his points from down low, and also from the free throw line. Diebler (11.95 points per game, 49.5% 3pt FG%), unsurprisingly, gets his points almost always from downtown. Craft (6.50 points per game, 43.6% 3pt FG%), Lighty (12.72 points per game, 44.6% 3pt FG%), and Buford (13.65 points per game, 41% 3pt FG%)are all pretty balanced in how they get their points.
  • Iowa has taken 70.65% of their shots from two point range and 29.35% of their shot attempts from behind the arc. The Hawkeyes have scored 55.40% of their points from two point field goals, 24.98% from three pointers, and 19.63% from free throws.
  • Ohio State has attempted 66.32% of their shots from inside the three point line and 33.68% from outside it. They have scored 53.06% of their points from two point field goals, 29.87% from three point field goals, and 17.06% from free throws.
Opposing Players to Watch:

 Not much has changed since last time, so check it out here. Numbers may have changed slightly, but not enough to matter.


Hopefully Iowa can keep it as close as last time, but I doubt it. Basabe had a great game, and actually outplayed Sullinger. Basabe has been good in Big 10 play so far averaging around 12 points and 8 rebounds per game. I'm sure Ohio State will have something different for him this time, so it'll be interesting to see how Basabe plays. If Gatens continues to shoot the ball well (the Purdue and Minnesota games not included) and May can build off the good game he had on Sunday, Iowa could keep it close again. But, Cole has struggled recently, and he was big last time the Hawkeyes played the Buckeyes.

Honestly, Ohio State has too much firepower. Iowa has no answer for Sullinger down low, and Ohio State has too many good players out on the wing. If Sullinger gets going and Iowa goes with a double team, that will leave guys  like Diebler open out on the wing. Also, I'm a little worried about Lauderdale (blocking12.7% of opponents shots this year) blocking every shot in the paint after seeing the Minnesota game. Expect Iowa to turn the ball over tonight too, which always makes winning hard. On the road, I expect Iowa to get blown out. But, with a young team I'm not really looking for a win, I am just looking for progress. But, an upset would be nice.

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