Iowa vs Michigan Recap: 73-87 L

This game was going okay. Then they played the second half.

Bullet points!

• 58.8%. That is the effective FG% that Iowa's Big 10 opponents have averaged against them in 9 conference games this year, after Michigan shot a 71.4% yesterday (86.54% in the second half!). Michigan's average on the year coming into yesterday's game was 51%. They basically shot 20% better than their season average against Iowa.
• Iowa also shot above their season average yesterday. Their 53.5% effective FG% was about 5% better than their 48.42% average on the season. Too bad that wasn't even close to enough.
• Michigan likes to shoot three pointers. This game was no different. They took 56 shots, and exactly half of them were three's. Out of those 28 three's, the Wolverines made exactly half of those. Their 50% 3pt FG% was about 16% higher than their season average. Their 67.8% 2pt FG% against Iowa, was also about 16% higher than their season average. 
• I almost called the a Basabe double-double in the preview for this game. Michigan's best post defender is Horford, and he doesn't play as much as Morgan and Smotrycz. Neither of which, had a chance against Basabe. Basabe had 25 points on 9-11 shooting (81.8% effective FG%) and on 7-8 from the free throw line. He also grabbed 8 rebounds (4 offensive and 4 defensive). That was good for 15.6% of all offensive and 21.7% of all defensive rebounds available while he was in the game. If only Iowa had like 5 more Basabe's. 
• Cartwright had a nice game today. He actually had an effective FG% above 50%, shooting 55% (yay!). He scored 11 points on 5-10 shooting with 1-2 from three point range. He also had 9 assists (screw you Darius Morris) and 0 (!) turnovers. Michigan is not a good defensive team, so this is mostly a result of Michigan being bad defensively, and not Cartwright becoming amazing overnight. Still good to see, though. 
• Gatens had a meh kind of game. He had 11 points on 4-9 shooting and went 1-2 from behind the arc (50% effective FG%). That is pretty much all he did. Well, besides play some interesting defense. But, whatever.
• May continues to struggle. This really needs to be fixed in the final month of the season.
• I'll say it again without parenthesis this time. Screw you Darius Morris. How did he get stuck playing on a half-court offensive team like Michigan? I mean, this game was literally the "Darius Morris Show". He did his best Jason Kidd impression by putting together a triple-double. He was the only Michigan player that didn't just sit behind the three point line all day. He actually drove to the basket and scored 12 points and also found guys like Morgan and Horford down low for big dunks. He found his teammates 11 times total, and pulled down 10 rebounds. Yeah. He's a point guard.
• Iowa lost the overall rebounding battle, as Michigan grabbed 52.73% of all rebounds compared to Iowa's 47.27%. Iowa did grab 69.57% of all defensive rebounds available compared to Michigan's 68.75%, and 31.25% of all offensive rebounds compared to 30.43%. It should also be pointed out that Michigan is a horrible offensive rebounding team, and that their 30.43% today was about 10% above their season average. Oh, how I miss the days of Iowa being good at rebounding. 
• Iowa ended 23.44% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and only 15.6% of their possessions with a turnover. That was good for a 1.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. This is good.
• Michigan ended 39.29% (!) of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and 17.2% of their possessions with a turnover. That was good for an assist to turnover ratio of 2 to 1. This is not good. 
• Iowa averaged 1.14 points per possession. Michigan averaged 1.36 points per possession. Iowa is now averaging 0.99 points per possession in Big 10 play, while allowing 1.16 points per possession. Also, not good.

Looking at Iowa Compared to the Average Big 10 Team

When this season began, everyone was proclaiming the Big 10 as one of the toughest conferences in the nation. This was bad news for an Iowa team trying to rebuild. Iowa went 7-5 in non-conference play, but has gone just 1-7 in Big 10 play. We all knew that Iowa's stats from non-conference play wouldn't necessarily translate to Big 10 play. So, now that the Hawkeyes have 8 conference games under their belt, I wanted to look at why Iowa has looked so much worse. First, though, let's see how good the Big 10 actually is.

The Average Big 10 Offense vs The Average NCAA Offense

What you see above is the average of all 11 Big 10 teams plotted against the average of every NCAA Division I team. As you can see, the Big 10 is above average in everything except for getting to the free throw line. So, the average offense in the Big 10 is better than the average NCAA offense. Bad news for Iowa.

Iowa vs Michigan Men's Basketball Preview

Iowa is on the road for the second game in a row, taking on another slower paced offense in Michigan. Michigan is fresh off a big victory against Michigan State (what has happened to them?), but is only 2-6 in conference play. Michigan is a winnable game for the Hawkeyes, but they need to play much better than they have in other conference road games this year.

Iowa Offense vs Michigan Defense

Iowa should be able to shoot pretty well against Michigan, as they have been slightly below average at contesting opponents shots. Against Northwestern Iowa shot lights out, but against Penn State they were terrible. Both of those teams were below average in opponent shooting, but one game is a small sample size, so anything could happen.  

Visualizing the Big 10's Top 5 Quarterbacks from 2010

I've been trying to figure out how to do this for a while now. I've been able to use averages to create ratings, and show a team's strengths and weaknesses on a chart. However, I have yet to do it for players. I'm still working on other skill players because I'm having trouble coming up with what stats to rate them on. But, quarterbacks were easy. So here they are.

Methodology
 
For quarterbacks (with at least 80 pass attempts in 2010), I rated them on their propensity to throw interceptions (interceptions per pass attempt) and touchdowns (touchdown per pass attempt). I also rated them on how good they were at picking up chunks of yards through the air (yards per pass attempt). The final category I looked at, was completion percentage, to see how often they were completing their passes. I didn't include quarterback rating on the charts, because it essentially measures these four things by itself. I didn't want any categories that captured the same thing twice.

The ratings are the same as they always are. Only, this time the average is the Big 10 average, and not NCAA average (like my basketball ratings). 100= Big 10 average, 110= 10% better than Big 10 average, and 90= 10% below Big 10 average. Let's begin!

Iowa vs Penn State Recap: 51-65 L

Well, that sucked.

Bullet points!

• Iowa got beat in pretty much every facet of the game by Penn State. The only one of the Four Factors that Iowa won was the turnover battle. They turned the ball over on 19.3% of their possessions, while forcing Penn State into a turnover on 24.56% of their possessions. 
• Unfortunately turnovers wasn't enough to give Iowa the win, as they also got killed in shooting. Penn State shot a 58.5% effective FG%, which is 10% higher than their season average. Iowa, on the other hand, shot a 44.1% effective FG%, which is 4% lower than their season average. It's all the more disappointing because Penn State's opponents had been shooting well on them all season. So, it's not like Penn State was known for their defense. 
• Let's stay on shooting. Iowa shot a better percentage from downtown, making 38.9% of their three pointers compared to Penn State's 31.3%. However, the problem came once Iowa got inside the three point line. They only made 36.3% of their two point field goals (!), compared to Penn State's 64.5%. Ummm, yeah. I think that speaks for itself. 
• It's not like Iowa was bad all game. For most of the first half they had the lead over Penn State. They were even up by double digits at one point. Of course, the lead dwindled and the Nittany Lions took the lead right before halftime. A real momentum shift, I felt, took place when the refs called that charge on McCabe. The defender was all the way under the basket, and it should have been a blocking foul. Of course, Fran also disagreed with the referee, and got himself another technical to add to his mantle this year. But, that took at least two points off the board for Iowa, and gave Penn State two as they made their technical free throws. I'm not saying that is where Iowa lost the game, just that it seemed to be a momentum changer in the first half.
• Once again in Big 10 play, Iowa got throttled on the boards. I've already mentioned how rebounding has taken a turn for the worse during Big 10 play for Iowa, and tonight was no different. Penn State grabbed 56.5% of all rebounds to Iowa's 43.5%. On the offensive glass, the Nittany Lions outrebounded Iowa 42.9% to 30%. Defensively, they grabbed 70% to Iowa's 57.1%. I mean, Iowa only grabbed 12 defensive rebounds out of Penn State's 22 misses all night. Let me repeat that. 12 defensive rebounds. All night. That's it. That sucks.
• Gatens reached double digits tonight, scoring 10 on 4-10 shooting (50% effective FG%). He went 2-5 from two point range and 2-5 from three point range. That is what I find the most interesting because it shows his Big 10 performance in a nut shell. Three pointers have been the easier shot for Gatens since Big 10 play kicked off. In eight conference games, Gatens has shot 44% from three point range and 38.10% from two point range. One of those things is good, and one of those things is not. In November he shot 35% from two point range, but he was coming off a hand injury. In December, he was hot, shooting 70% from inside the arc. So, he's gone from ridiculously cold to ridiculously hot to ridiculously cold again. Let's hope for Gatens to regress to his mean in January.
• Cole was the leading scorer for the Hawkeyes last night. He put up 11 on 4 of 7 shooting (57.1% effective FG%) and by hitting three of four free throws. Cole had a better defensive rebounding game, grabbing 17.8% of all defensive rebounds while he was on the court. However, he didn't do a whole lot on the offensive rebounding side, grabbing only 4.1%. Still had a pretty good game though.
• Cartwright was interesting last night. On the one hand, he had 8 assists and only 3 turnovers. On the other hand, he had 9 points on 4-13 shooting (34.6% effective FG%). Early in the game he took some questionable shots, but they were falling so you couldn't really question him. Late in the game those shots were no longer falling. There really isn't much to say about it anymore, it would be great if he could get 9 points on about half as many shots but, Cartwright is what he is. 
• On the Penn State side, Talor Battle and Jeff Brooks put up more points, together, than every player on Iowa did. Battle had 23 points on 8-13 shooting (65.3% effective FG%), while Brooks had 22 on 9-17 shooting. His 64.7% effective FG% looks better than his 9-17 shooting, and that's because of 4 of his 9 made baskets were three pointers.
• Penn State's Andrew Jones also put in 9 points. But, his shooting wasn't the important part. Jones was Iowa's worst nightmare on the glass, as he came up just one point shy of a double double. He grabbed 4 offensive rebounds (21.7%) and 6 defensive rebounds (22.8%). He's the main reason Iowa lost the rebounding battle.
• Overall, Iowa ended 22.8% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, finishing with a 1.18 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. Penn State ended 24.56% of their possessions with an assist, which gave them an assist to turnover ratio of 1.
• Iowa's miserable shooting led to an average of 0.90 points per possession. Meanwhile, Penn State averaged 1.14 points per possession.
• Ugh.