What is Wrong With Eric May?

Coming into the season, a lot of people thought that, by the end of the year, Eric May could be the best player on the team. In November, he clearly looked the part. Now, though, he has become a role player, who doesn't seem to know his role. So, what the hell happened? Let's look at some numbers.

First, lets look at his points per minute and points per scoring attempt.

Clearly, Eric May shot out of his mind in November. He put up 1.20 points per scoring attempt that month, which helped him score 0.47 points per minute. Since then, however, he has pretty much dropped off the map. His points per minute have declined every month, and February is currently his worst scoring month this year.

Last year, May averaged exactly 1 point per scoring attempt. He is at 1.01 for the season thanks to his monstrous November. But, it's pretty clear to see over the last three months, that he is not putting the ball in the basket as efficiently as he is capable of.

So, what has led to the dip in shooting efficiency? Well, let's look at his shooting percentages.

Iowa vs Purdue Round II Preview

Hopefully, every single Hawkeye fan at Carver today will give Jarryd Cole a standing ovation. He has been through the darkest period in Iowa basketball history, and he's been nothing short of classy about the whole situation. He has been a solid guy on the court, and a quality character guy off of it. I for one, am going to miss Jarryd Cole. It's too bad he never got a chance to be a part of a winning Iowa Hawkeye team. He deserved better. Thank you, Jarryd.

Now, the preview.

Last time:
Iowa vs Purdue Preview 
Iowa vs Purdue Recap: 55-72 L

Iowa Offense vs Purdue Defense

Iowa's offense is in for a fun one today! Purdue's defense is really damn good. After the Michigan State debacle, Iowa is still 1% below the NCAA average in effective FG%. Purdue, on the other hand, is 8% better than the NCAA average at contesting shots. Their 45.6% opponent effective FG%, is number one in the Big 10. Last time, Purdue held Iowa to a 38.5% effective FG%. While I wouldn't expect Iowa to shoot that horrible again, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they do either.

Iowa vs Michigan State Round II Recap: 66-85 Loss

For the record, I didn't actually watch this game, as life got in the way of me enjoying this 19 point ass-kicking at the hand of the Spartans. That means that this post will be straight from the box score, since I didn't see what actually happened on the court, and it'll probably be pretty truncated too. I do, however, have this game on DVR. But, after looking over the box score, I'm not so sure I want to sit down and put myself through that kind of pain.

Anyhow, Bullet Points!

• Let's start with shooting. Iowa shot a lowly 41.07% effective FG%. They made 52.27% of their two point shots (good), 60.61% of their free throws (bad), and 0% of their three pointers (ugly). Michigan State, on the other hand, put up a 60.91% effective FG%. They converted on 54.55% of their two pointers, 50% of their three's, and 66.67% of their free throw's. You aren't going to win many games when you get out shot by that margin.
• Looking at rebounding, Michigan State grabbed 53.62% of all rebounds, compared to Iowa's 46.38%. The Spartans also beat the Hawkeyes on the offensive glass, 30% to 28.21%, and on the defensive glass, 71.79% to 70%. After they grabbed 40% of their own misses in the last game against Iowa, I'm surprised they only came down with 30% this time. 
• Iowa ended 16.74% of their possessions with an assisted field goal. They also ended 15.35% of their possessions with a turnover. Those two totals were good for a 1.07 assist to turnover ratio. Michigan State finished 27.87% of their possessions with an assist, while only giving the ball up on 18.12% of them. Good for a 1.54 assist to turnover ratio. If you haven't noticed, there wasn't much that Iowa won this game. 

Iowa vs Michigan State Round II Preview

Iowa Offense vs Michigan State Defense

Shooting-wise, Iowa is still a slightly below NCAA average shooting team. However, Michigan State is only slightly above average at contesting opponent's shots. This was seen in the first game between these two teams, when Iowa shot a 60.6% effective FG%, about 12% above their season average. That's probably way higher than I would expect Iowa to shoot this time. But, I could see Iowa shooting somewhere in the 52-54% range.

The battle between Iowa going for offensive rebounds and Michigan State going for defensive rebounds, should be pretty interesting. Iowa has been 7% above NCAA average at grabbing offensive boards this year. While, Michigan State is 9% above NCAA average at pulling down defensive rebounds. In the last game, Michigan State outrebounded Iowa, both offensively and defensively. However, Iowa did grab 34.8% of all of their misses, which is basically their season average of 34.82%. So, it's not like Iowa underperformed on the offensive boards last time.

Iowa probably won't see the free throw line all that much. They are 11% below NCAA average in free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goals attempted), and Michigan State is 7% above average at not letting opponents get there. Last time, Michigan State held Iowa to a 0.21 free throw rate, which is way below Iowa's season average of 0.34. Iowa shot 11 free throws that game, with Basabe taking none of them and Cole taking two of them. I expect Basabe to have a better game, so I also expect Iowa's free throws to go up a little bit. I would say Iowa get's to the line about 16 times, with Basabe and Cole getting about 8 of those attempts.

Basabe's Future

Part 1 of this series is here

In the first post on Basabe, I looked at the kind of freshman year he is having. With this post, I want to look at what he could develop into. To do that, I want to compare his freshman year, with the senior year's of Greg Brunner and Reggie Evans. This should be able to give us an idea of where his development could go.

Let's start with playing time:

Unsurprisingly, Brunner and Evans got more playing time their senior campaigns, than Basabe has in his freshman season. Part of that has also been a little bit of foul trouble for Basabe too.

Next, shooting:

Basabe is a pretty damn good free throw shooter for a big man. Already, much better than Brunner and Evans.

Basabe, has also had a better year shooting than both Evans and Brunner. (Oddly enough, Brunner had a much worse shooting year as a senior, than he did as a freshman) His 57.07% effective FG% is good enough for eighth in the Big 10 right now. In his freshman year, Basabe is already a more efficient scorer, than Evans or Brunner. If he improves upon that number, he is going to be out of this world. But, even if he just stays consistent, he's going to be damn good.