Iowa vs Indiana: Round II Recap: 64-63 W

I'm not sure which game I enjoyed more. This game vs Indiana or the Michigan State massacre. Michigan State is a great program with a legendary head coach. So, that made it even more awesome that Iowa slaughtered them. Indiana is a rebuilding program, like Iowa, and this was a competitive game going back and forth the whole time. I haven't had a feeling like this, where Iowa pulled out a big conference win in... I don't know how long. But, either way, these last two games have been nothing short of spectacular, considering the expectations of this Iowa team coming into the season. And, by the way, Iowa picked up their first conference road win yesterday.

Bullet Points!

• I said in the preview to this game, that because Indiana has a fouling problem, Basabe and Cartwright should live at the line today. Well, Basabe had a free throw rate of 0.90 (!), getting to the charity stripe 9 times, making 8 of them (88.89%). Cartwright was second on the team with 5 free throws attempted, making four of them (80%). Which, was good for a free throw rate of 0.45. Both players took advantage of Indiana's hacktastic ways, and even more important, both players made it count when they got to the free throw line. 

Iowa vs Indiana Men's Baskeball Preview: Round II

Iowa vs Indiana Preview: Round I

Iowa vs Indiana Recap: Round I

Last time this game was played, I didn't get to watch most of it because the NFC Championship game was on. But, when I did see catch the game during commercials, Iowa was dominating. That was at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, though. While, Iowa is 2-3 in home conference games this year. They are 0-5 on the road. Indiana has a similar home/road split. They are 3-2 at home, and 0-5 on the road in Big 10 play. Not to mention, in their last three games they have beaten Illinois and Minnesota (two teams that beat Iowa), and they took Sparty (a team who Iowa crushed) to overtime and only lost by one point. Did I mention that they are doing this while missing star players? When Iowa beat them they were missing Maurice Creek and Verdell Jones III. This time they will have Jones III back, but he isn't 100%, and they will be missing Christian Watford, who just happened to put up 30 points on Iowa last time out. So, who knows what to expect?

Iowa Offense vs Indiana Defense

The thing to keep an eye on, is the free throw rate. Indiana has a ridiculously hard time not fouling guys. Last time these teams played, Indiana put the Hawkeyes on the line 39 times (a 0.75 free throw rate!). Almost 30% of Iowa's points that game came from uncontested shots at the free throw line. When you give a team that many free opportunities. You're probably not going to win all that much.

Comparing Iowa's Non-Conference Stats to Big 10 Stats

Iowa went 7-5 in non-conference play this year. But, since the Big 10 schedule kicked off, wins have been few and far between for the Hawkeyes. Going just 2-8 in conference play so far. So, what has been the difference? Let's find out.
Shooting:

As you can see, Iowa's shooting hasn't really changed in Big 10 play. Instead, it's been their opponents shooting that has been much better since conference play started. Non-conference opponents shot a combined 44.69% effective FG%, while Big 10 opponents have shot 56.64%. Let's break the shooting down a little bit.

Two point and three point field goal percentage:

We already know Iowa is shooting pretty much the same between both halves of their schedule (even though they are shooting a little better from three point range in Big 10 play). Their opponents, though, have shot about 10% better a piece on their two point field goal attempts and their three point field goal attempts. It's not a surprise that these numbers have gone up, but a 10% increase is a lot. You're not going to win a lot of games when you get outshot by your opponents like Iowa has in conference play.

Offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency:

Offensive and defensive efficiency are simply just points per possession multiplied 100, to show what a team would score on offense or give up on defense in 100 possessions (it's like points per game, but adjusted for pace of play). Iowa is scoring slightly less in conference play, dropping by 1 point per 100 possessions. But, that hasn't really been the problem.

Seeing that Iowa has had trouble stopping Big 10 opponents from shooting really well, it shouldn't be a surprise that defensive efficiency is where Iowa see's the most trouble. In non-conference play they only allowed 87.56 points per 100 possessions. In conference play, however, they have allowed 113.26 points per 100 possessions. Don't expect these numbers to change all that much though. The Big 10, obviously, has a lot of firepower this year.

Rebounding:

Iowa was a dominant rebounding team during the non-conference portion of their schedule. Now that they are in Big 10 play, not so much. They went from grabbing 72.64% of all defensive rebounds available in non-conference play to 61.76% in Big 10 play. That is a huge drop. Offensive rebounding rate has dropped too, but not anywhere near as much as defensive rebounding rate. The Hawkeyes pulled down 36.43% of  all offensive rebounds available against non-conference opponents, but only 33.02% in conference play. We should expect a small drop in rebounding since Iowa is playing harder competition now, but the defensive rebounding is just ridiculous. That needs to be fixed.

Assists and Turnovers:

Finally,  let's look at assists and turnovers. Just like the rest of the categories above, the offense has been basically the same. They have seen a 1% increase in their assist rate (percentage of possessions ending with an assisted field goal), but nothing real huge. Once again, the defense has been the difference.

To go right along with the huge increase in shooting, Big 10 opponents have seen a much larger percentage of their possessions end with an assisted field goal than non-conference opponents did. Iowa is also forcing a turnover on 22.10% of Big 10 opponents possessions compared to 23.26%  against non-conference opponents. That's not a huge difference, but when you are allowing 10% more assists, the last thing you want to do is force less turnovers.

To summarize, Iowa's offense has actually been pretty consistent since transitioning into playing against Big 10 defenses. However, the same cannot be said for the defense guarding Big 10 offenses. Big 10 teams are shooting a ridiculous effective FG% against Iowa, which has also led to a huge uptick in the number of assists allowed by the Hawkeyes. The amount of turnovers Iowa has forced is also slightly down in conference play, but Iowa is still very good at making other teams cough the ball up.

The other main problem besides opponents shooting, has been rebounding. Specifically, defensive rebounding. Since Big 10 play has started, Iowa has been giving opponents way too many second chances opportunities. The rate at which Iowa was grabbing offensive rebounds has also dropped, but to a much lesser degree than the defensive rebounds have. Let's hope these problems get smaller as the season goes on. This is a young team, and it wouldn't be reasonable to expect them to fix them overnight. Hopefully, though, we can see progress as the season winds to an end. Progress gives us something to look forward to for next year.

Iowa vs Michigan State Recap: 72-52 W

That game was what every Hawkeye fan needed. Sure, Michigan State has major problems right now, and Iowa didn't go and knock off the best team in the Big 10. But, keep in mind that this Michigan State team still has a lot of talent on it, and Iowa outplayed them in pretty much ever aspect of that basketball game last night. So, it's still a great win for the Hawkeyes, even if we are still alone in last place (damn you Indiana).

Bullet Points!

•  WOOOOOOO!!!!!
• I've been very repetitive lately, saying that Iowa has yet to get a good game out of their four best offensive players, or even three out of the four. Well, Gatens was feeling it last night, Cartwright put together another great game, and May had some big plays that got Carver on its collective feet. Basabe struggled, but Cole more than made up for his troubles last night. Overall, 4 Iowa starters were in double digit points. 
• Iowa's starters scored 59 points, going 24-40 from the field, 2-5 from three point range (62.5% effective FG%), and 9-11 from the free throw line (81.82%).
• Michigan State's starters scored 34 points on 12-41 shooting, including 4-17 from the three point line (34.15% effective FG%), and 6-6 from the free throw line (thanks to Kalin Lucas). I'm not surprised there was this much disparity between the teams in shooting, I'm just pleasantly surprised that it wasn't Iowa, who couldn't buy a basket all game.
• For the entire game, Iowa made 62.7% of their two point field goal attempts (only the second time they've been over 60% in Big 10 play this year), but only 33.3% of their three point attempts. Considering that 75% of the Hawkeyes points came from inside the three point line, they still finished with a great effective FG% of 60.58% (their second highest shooting in Big 10 play this year).
• Over the entire 40 minutes of this game, Michigan State made 39.4% of their two point shots taken, and an even worse 22.2% of their three pointers attempted. These two averages combined for a 37.5% effective FG%, which is easily the lowest by any Big 10 opponent against Iowa this season. Actually, it is only the third time Iowa has held a conference opponent to less than 50% this year. 
• Bryce Cartwright has put together back to back great games. This really has to make the Iowa fanbase excited to see how much he can improve next year. He's no Darius Morris, but he did his best impression last night, as he grabbed his first Career double-double as a member of the Iowa team (and in his collegiate career). He scored 12 points on 6-12 shooting (50% effective FG%), which is a very efficient shooting night for Cartwright. He also had another game where he went insane dishing out assists. He tallied 10 assists in 37 minutes of play, good for his second best assist per minute rate of the season, at 0.27 (he had 0.30 assists per minute vs Michigan last Sunday). Cartwright did have four turnovers, but still came up with a 2.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio last night. Pretty good.
• Staying on Cartwright and his assists, the man has been impressive. In an earlier post, I wrote he wasn't improving as the year had gone on. Well, he hasn't scoring wise, but he is getting better and better at finding his teammates over the course of the season. If you look at his assist rate, he is ranked number 21 in the country and number 3 in the Big 10, with a 36.9% assist rate. In Big 10 play he is averaging 0.20 assists per minute compared to the 0.16 assists per minute he averaged in non-conference play. What about if you check out month to month? Yep. He's getting better. Have a look:

•  Gatens had a great game. He had 14 points on 6-11 shooting, including 2-3 from three point range (good for a 63.6% effective FG%). He also added 5 more points from the charity srtipe, bringing his total on the night to a team high, 19 points. Gatens still struggled to shoot a better percentage from two point range (50%) than he did from three point range (66.7%), but that's the player he is, and he is still Iowa's best shooter. He also had 4 steals and a dunk! Fastbreak points bitches!
• Welcome back Eric May! Please feel free to stay a while too. May was very efficient, scoring 11 points on 4-5 shooting (0 three point attempts) and 3-4 from the free throw line. Even better, he was attacking the basket when he shot, and he was getting out in transition when Michigan State turned the ball over. May had one dunk foiled when was run down from behind by a Michigan State player, but a couple minutes later he was redeemed. May caught an outlet pass, outrunning another Spartan player, flushing the ball down with one hand. That dunk literally got everybody in Carver (and even fans on Twitter) out of their seat. 
• I love when Eric May dunks. Eric May dunks bring us all together. I think Eric May's dunks could bring peace to the Middle East. Let's get on that Eric.
• Jarryd Cole also decided to come to play last night, as he scored 13 points (6-6 shooting too!) and grabbed 9 rebounds (all defensive). As if this game wasn't already amazing enough, Iowa almost had two players grab double-double's against Sparty. Cole grabbed 31% of all defensive rebounds available while on the court, which is about 12% better than his season average. However, his outstanding defensive rebounding was still second on the team.That's how good things were for Iowa last night.
• Cole's defensive rebounding rate was second best on the team to who else? Devon Archie of course. All the man does is crash the boards. He pulled down 12.4% of all offensive and 35.7% of all defensive rebounds while on the court. Good to see him get some playing time. Too bad it meant that Basabe and Cole were in foul trouble.
• Brommer was apparently sick as a dog, and throwing up at halftime. For being sick, 6 points and 2 offensive rebounds in 14 minutes of play is still pretty damn good. He also, only picked up 1 foul in those 14 minutes. Progress!
• Looking at rebounds, Iowa won the overall battle ever so slightly, 50.79% to 49.21%. However, Michigan State gave the Hawkeyes trouble on the offensive boards, pulling down 40% of their missed shots. Iowa, on the other hand only grabbed 34.78% of their missed shots. On the defensive boards, Michigan State also came away with more, beating Iowa 65.22% to 60%. This isn't real disappointing though, because Michigan State has some legit rebounders. So, this was expected.
• Iowa finished 30.65% (!) of their possessions with an assisted field goal (the only other time they were over 30% in this category this year, was against the mighty SIU Edwardsville Cougars), while also ending 19.4% of their possessions with a turnover. That's good for an assist to turnover ratio of 1.58 to 1. 
• Michigan State ended 17.74% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and ended 27.4% of their possessions with a turnover. The Spartans finished with a 0.65 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
• Overall, Iowa averaged 1.16 points per possession. Michigan State, meanwhile, averaged 0.84 points per possession. That is the lowest defensive points per possession allowed by Iowa in Big 10 play this year, and only the second time they have held a conference opponent under 1 (Indiana averaged 0.99 points per possession).
• WOOOOOOOOO!!!

Iowa vs Michigan State Men's Basketball Preview

Everybody knows something is going on up at Michigan State. They've already lost four conference games to Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, and in-state rival Michigan. Not to mention, they just went into overtime with an Indiana team missing some key players. Finally, another blow for them, was Junior guard Korie Lucious recently being dismissed from the team. Will this one be the game where Iowa finally pulls off a Big 10 upset? Or will this be another blowout where Iowa is run out of the gym? Let's try to figure that out.

Iowa Offense vs Michigan State Defense

Let's start with shooting. Iowa is the worst shooting team in the Big 10, overall (10th place if you look at conference games only), shooting a 48.66% effective FG%. Michigan State has only been 2% above NCAA average at contesting opponents shots this year, allowing opponents to shoot 48%. In conference play though, the Spartans have allowed Big 10 opponents to shoot a 51.9% effective FG%. Hopefully that means good news for Iowa.