Black and Gold Box Score

Moving On Up

2011-08-16T06:48:00.000-05:00

So, this will be the last post on Black and Gold Box Score. I have been asked to start a new blog with three other Hawkeye bloggers, of which I am sure you have read along with my work. The new blog is much more aesthetically pleasing, and will have more content than I can produce by myself here.

Finally, I just want to thank everybody who stopped by here in the 8 months that this blog was running. I never intended to do a blog. It was a gradual step by step process. I was interested in stats because I love reading baseball analysis and I wanted to apply the same thing to my favorite college team. Then I started gathering data and spitting out results, and decided to share them. I still wasn't ready to start a blog, though, because I wasn't sure if I wanted a commitment like that. As a result, I created a Twitter account, and began spamming people's Twitter feeds with Iowa football and basketball stats. I did that for about four months, before I was able to land an entry level job in my field of study. Because it was an entry level job that didn't pay shit, I also had to keep my part time job. This made it impossible to sit and tweet Hawkeye stats all the time. That's how this blog started. I would put stats on here, and people could look at them as they pleased. It eventually evolved into a real blog. Next came previews and recaps, and then the longer offseason analysis posts. I went from having a handful of people read my first posts on here, to having many more reading my final posts here. I'm not sure what I planned on accomplishing when I started this blog, but I'm very happy with how it's turned out.

Now, though, it's on to the next chapter. The new blog is called The High Porch Picnic. As the name implies, I think it's going to be a great ol' time. Thanks for stopping by, and I hope to see you over there soon.

A Snapshot of the Big Ten from 2005-2010

2011-07-18T08:48:00.002-05:00

As it turns out, I've been really busy lately. You know with life and all that kind of stuff. I've actually had this piece sitting around for a couple of days, but have been too busy to proofread and publish it. I'm probably going to continue being busy for a while, so the posting will be even more sporadic here than it already is during the offseason. As a result, this isn't one of my usual long-winded posts. Instead, you get a chart and a list. Fun for everyone!

Anyway, I decided to look at every B1G team's S&P+ over the last six years. Why? Well, because S&P+ data only goes back that far. I got the numbers from the Football Outsiders database, which you can find here (For those of you that aren't familiar with S&P+, read their definitions at the top of the link). Remember, these are where a team ranks nationally (out of 120), according to S&P+. So, the lower the number, the better.

I added Nebraska in here, even though they haven't played in the B1G yet. S&P+ adjusts for strength of schedule, so every team is comparable. They are the black line on the chart, because Wisconsin and them are kind of hard to tell apart color scheme wise. You can think of it as black for the Blackshirts (You're welcome, Husker fans. I won't be this nice come football season).

For the chart, I used a rolling average for each team that took into account each of the years previous. I did this for a couple of reasons: 1) To try to pick up on trends that give us a visual snapshot of each football program over the last six years. 2) To smooth out the team lines, and make the chart look a lot less jumbled.
Below, you will find each team's six year average in order from best to worst, along with some quick commentary.
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A Quick Post on 2010's Fourth Quarter Collapses

2011-07-09T20:51:00.002-05:00

I think we all remember what happened just before this... (Nam Y. Huh | AP)

Last Friday, Bill Connelly, of Football Study Hall, released two Google spreadsheets full of special rankings on every team in college football. Naturally, I was giddy as a damn school girl to have this data at my disposal. And once I opened up these spreadsheets, what was the first thing I wanted to look at? Why Iowa's S&P+ rankings by quarter, of course.

For those of you not familiar with the stats used at Football Study Hall, they come from Football Outsiders. Basically, it's like Sabermetrics (if you're a baseball fan), but for football. S&P+ is basically a combination ranking of two of their stats. The first stat is Success Rate, which basically measures how good a team is at moving the ball on offense or stopping the opposing team from moving the ball on defense. The second stat is Equivalent Points Per Play, which measures how explosive an offense is or how good a defense is at not allowing big plays. These two stats get added together like on-base percentage and slugging percentage do in baseball (OPS) to create S&P+. (To get full definitions of these stats check out this link)

Anyway, why did I look at Iowa's S&P+ by quarter for 2010? Because I wanted to see what the hell happened during Iowa's famous fourth quarter collapses last year. Let's find out.

To the graphs!

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A Trip Down Memory Lane: Remembering the Dominance of Evy, the Coach

2011-07-06T11:23:00.004-05:00

Lately, I've found myself over at Sports Reference's college football site quite a bit, looking at Iowa's past results throughout history. After going back through the Ferentz and Fry years, I found myself gravitating to the late 1950's (you know, since the 60's and 70's were such a clusterfuck) and the fantastic Iowa teams led by none other than Forest Evashevski.

Evy, as most people called him, had an interesting career at Iowa. He coached a total of nine years for the Hawkeyes. The last five of which, are some of the greatest football Iowa has ever played. In the late 1950's, Evy (known for his stubborn ways) and Iowa's Athletic Director Paul Brechler had a public feud. Brechler left that year to be the commissioner of the Skyline Conference, and Evy tried to lead the Hawkeyes to more glory from above in 1961. As most Hawkeye fans know, however, Evy was a better coach than he was an AD. After he left the coaching seat, Iowa went into a tailspin that would take decades to correct.

So, to review very briefly: 1) Evy was not the most pleasant man in the world. 2) He was a terrible Athletic Director. But, this post isn't about either of those. Instead, this post is about his nine year career as the head coach of the Iowa Hawkeyes, and just how damn good he was at his job.

Let's start off by looking at the stat that coaches are most judged by. Wins.

It's pretty clear that it took Evashevski a couple years to build the program up. The first four years saw mediocre results, at best. Over the final five years, though, he made Iowa a powerhouse. Since the schedule was shorter back then, compared to how many games teams play now a days. Let's look at win percentage.
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A Trip Down Memory Lane: The Most Disappointing Season Ever? 1997

2011-07-02T07:00:00.004-05:00

One of the few pictures I could find of the 1997 season. And it doesn't go with this post at all!

Maybe the title is a little harsh. Maybe I should change it to the most underachieving season in the last 32 years, considering I only did the math going back to 1979. But, holy shit was this a spirit breaking season. Luckily for me, I was only 10 years old when this season happened, so I wasn't really aware of how much this team underachieved. My memories of this season were watching Tavian Banks and Tim Dwight make opposing players look stupid. Being that I was too young to understand how good that 1997 Iowa team should have been, 2010 was my most heartbreaking season. Throughout last year's collapse though, people kept comparing the 2010 team to the 1997 team. I didn't really think much of it at the time. Like I said, I had good memories of that team, and I figured that people were just making more of that team because they had two once-in-a-lifetime playmakers.

Then Black Heart Gold Pants came out with a post, talking about using points scored and points allowed to calculate a team's expected winning percentage. Football's Pythagorean Theorem, if you will. Naturally, being the Hawkeye nerd that I am, I decided to calculate Iowa's Pythagorean win percentage for every year all the way through 1979. Season by season, I entered points scored and points allowed into an Excel spread sheet and came up with an expected win percentage.

Naturally, the 2010 team really underperformed. They were expected to win about 2 more games than they actually did. However, their difference of 2.13 more expected wins than actual wins, was not the worst. Not even in the Ferentz era. The 2008 season 2.46 was slightly worse (as BHGP pointed out here). When you add Fry's twenty year career into the equation, 2010 was the fifth most underachieving team as predicted by the Pythagorean Theorem. So what season was number one, you might ask? And by a very large margin? Why, 1997 of course.

Let's look at the Top Five Most Underachieving Iowa Teams since 1979 through the eyes of football's Pythagorean Theorem:

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James Vandenberg in 2011: What can we Expect?

2011-06-24T15:13:00.000-05:00

More of this. Less Nortwestern/Minnesota please. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images North America)

The 2011 season is only a couple of months away, and the Hawkeyes are breaking in new faces at a bunch of new positions this year. And, one of those positions just so happens to be quarterback. Which means, there will be a different guy under center this year, in place of Uncle Sam's favorite quarterback.

As Iowa fans, we had grown accustomed to seeing Ricky Stanzi line up under center for the last three years. But, his replacement, James Vandenberg, isn't a totally new face. Hawkeye fans know who he is. He has seen action in 7 games over his career, and started two of them. He already has a reputation built up around him, as he came ever so close to beating Ohio State at the Horseshoe back in 2009. He had a bit of an interception problem that game, but he completed 60.6% of his passes and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. Pretty good against a team that allowed a completion percentage of 54.3% and an average of 5.4 yards per attempt on the season. Not to mention, that Vandenberg threw 20% of all touchdown passes allowed by the Ohio State secondary that year.

However, it wasn't all great in 2009. Vandenberg struggled against Northwestern and Minnesota. He didn't really take any meangingful snaps last season, so Iowa fans only have memories of that 2009 season to go off of.

After having another year and a half since his last meaningful pass attempt in a game, Vandenberg should be much more comfortable stepping in as the starting quarterback for the most popular team in a state of about 3 million people. So what are some realistic expectations for him this upcoming season?
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Marvin McNutt and Iowa's Receiving Records

2011-06-14T08:00:00.001-05:00

7 got 6. (Photo courtesy of AP)

At the beginning of 2008, no one could have predicted this. Marvin McNutt was the third string quarterback sitting behind Jake Christensen and Ricky Stanzi. In fact, I was at the only game McNutt made an appearance at quarterback in. His final stat line vs Florida International was: 1-3, 10 yards, and 1 interception. That season, McNutt and the Iowa coaches saw the writing on the wall. The quarterbacks ahead of him on the depth chart had multiple years of eligibility remaining. Iowa had also brought in two quarterbacks, Vandenberg and Weinke, in the last recruiting class, who were redshirting in 2008. Barring AIRBHG switching from taking out Iowa running backs to taking out Iowa quarterbacks, McNutt had little to no shot of ever seeing significant playing time if he stayed at quarterback.

Flash forward to 2009. Marvin McNutt impresses in the offseason, and moves all the way up the depth chart to starting wide receiver. Hawkeye fans had heard good things about him in the offseason, but had no idea what to expect come opening kickoff that year. Then, McNutt burst onto the Big 10 scene. He led the Hawkeyes in receiving touchdowns and finished second in catches and yards in his first full year at the position. He was a natural.

His amazing story has sparked this question for me? Could he graduate as the best wide receiver in Iowa Hawkeye history?

It's crazy that we can even have this conversation so soon, considering Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who broke many of Iowa's receiving records, just finished his career last year. Many Iowa fans (those that haven't completely disowned him yet, for his personality and off the field incidents) consider DJK to be the greatest Iowa wide receiver of all time. So, leaving DJK's controversial personality out of the picture, how does McNutt compare numbers wise? Could he become the best wide receiver in Iowa history?
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A Trip Down Memory Lane: 2006 Iowa at Syracuse, "The Stand"

2011-06-12T10:26:00.001-05:00

Yeah. That seems about right. (Photo, obviously, courtesy of LIFE Magazine)

Every Hawkeye fan remembers this game. Which is funny, because the game was so bad, had it ended under normal circumstances, nobody would want to remember this game. Or care to reflect on it years later at all. Syracuse wasn't a very good team. They had lost 10 straight coming into this game, and would finish the 2006 season with a 4-8 record. Iowa was definitely the superior football squad. However, Iowa was also missing their three year starter at quarterback, Drew Tate. Tate did not play due to a strained abdominal muscle, that had been bothering him since before the season. As it turned out, this was all the Orange needed to make it this a game.

To reiterate my point about this game being ugly. Take a look at the drive chart:

Iowa's fourth drive ended in a touchdown, and their eighth drive ended in a field goal. That was it for regulation. Of their 9 drives in regulation that didn't end with a score, Iowa ended 4 of them with an interception, 4 with a punt, and 1 with a missed field goal. Yikes.

Syracuse scored a touchdown on their first drive, and didn't turn the ball over as much as the Jason Manson quarterbacked Hawkeyes did. However, they also didn't move the ball very much. In their 10 drives that did not end in a score, Syracuse only had 1 drive where they averaged above 4 yards per play. That one drive, the tenth drive, they averaged 6.71 yards per play, but then missed a field goal. They also had three drives where they went backwards, averaging negative yards per play. In other words, Iowa's defense was doing it's best to win the game, despite an offense that was doing it's best to give away the game.

In the end, the defense did win this game for Iowa. I mean, the offense got the winning touchdown in overtime. But, the defense put together an amazing 8 play goal line stand. The Iowa defense did give Syracuse every opportunity to tie the game, as they decided to get called for pass interference at the goal line twice. Nonetheless, the penalties ended up making this goal line stand even more special, and these 8 plays, are what made Hawkeye fans want to go from drinking to forget this game, to drinking in celebration of this game. So, let's reflect on those final 8 plays. Shall we?

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A Trip Down Memory Lane: 2009's Suffocating Pass Defense

2011-06-05T09:05:00.001-05:00

(What is this chart?)

The offense was below the Big 10 average in every category. You name it, they were not very good at it. The running game was especially terrible, as they were 32% below the Big 10 average in yards per carry and touchdowns per carry. The offense, however, did have some special moments. Namely, the Indiana comeback on Halloween and Stanzi to McNutt to beat Michigan State. But, make no mistake, this team was led by the defense.

The only category in which Iowa was below average on defense in, was tackles for loss ("Getting in the Backfield" on the chart), as I discussed in this post. Their 8.65% of opponent plays ending in negative yardage, was a solid number, that would have been around the Big 10 average in most years. There just happened to be a lot of teams that were good at bringing down their opponents behind the line of scrimmage that year. Other than that, Iowa abused their opponents on the defensive side of the ball in 2009.

They were 40% better than the Big 10 average at shutting down the run. 37% better than average at not letting their opponents score. In fact, they allowed only 13.08 defensive points per game (Points allowed by the defense only. Does not include touchdowns given up by offense or special teams), which was 9 points per game better than the Big 10 average. They even forced 17% more turnovers than average.

In other words, this defense ate opponents alive. The special part of the 2009 defense, though, may have been their ability to shut down opposing teams' passing attacks. Which is what these six long-winded paragraphs were leading into.

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Visualizing a Football Team: Primer

2011-06-05T00:30:00.000-05:00

If you've read this blog for a little while now, you've probably noticed that I like to use what Microsoft Excel calls "Radar Charts." Those would be those pentagonal charts that I used in all my game previews for basketball season. Well, I also use those for football too. I've gotten more readers lately, and I want to make sure that everyone who looks at these charts, knows what the hell I'm talking about. So, instead of breaking down how the chart works in every post that includes one, this post will serve as a primer to be linked to if you want to understand how they work. This will be the primer for football only. I will write a separate one for basketball later on down the road.

If you don't care about how I calculate these categories or what the categories actually measure, you can skip down to the "How to Read the Chart" section.

Anyway, let's get into it.

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Looking at Tackles for Loss, and What that Could Mean for 2011's Defensive Line

2011-06-01T15:27:00.005-05:00

People look at the roster for the upcoming football season, and everybody seems to come to the same conclusion: The biggest question mark is the defensive line. It's pretty clear to see why this seems to be the consensus, as Iowa lost three of their four starters from last year's defensive line to the NFL. Between the departed Ballard, Clayborn, and Klug, Iowa loses 43.86% of their tackles for loss from last year. If you look at just the tackles for loss by the defensive line, Iowa loses 62.50% of their tackles for loss from the 2010 season.

Iowa does get back Mike Daniels, who by himself, returns 19.30% of last year's tackles for loss (27.50% of last year's defensive line tackles for loss). Broderick Binns is also a year removed from a 9.5 tackles for loss season, with 5.5 of them being sacks. However, 2010 was a gigantic step in the wrong direction, as he came away with only 1 tackle for loss and no sacks. After those two, though, Iowa has some unproven guys with limited experience. Lebron Daniel, Dominic Alvis, and Steve Bigach only return 5.26% of last year's total tackles for loss between the three of them. So, you can see why people might be a little concerned about this year's front four.

Now, Mike Daniels could tear up the Big 10 and Broderick Binns could return to 2009 form. Iowa could also have a few of the guys with a little experience step up. For instance, someone like Carl Davis, Mike Hardy, or even Darian Cooper could prove to be Big 10 ready. But, how likely is that perfect scenario to happen? Well, if you look at Iowa's recent track record at dropping their opponent behind the line of scrimmage, probably not very likely.

The chart above shows the percentage of opponent plays that went for negative yardage in a season. Iowa struggled in this category last year, taking almost four more plays than the average Big 10 team to tally a tackle for loss. However, last year wasn't an apparition. Instead, it was part of a continuing trend for the Hawkeyes.
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Iowa Football Run/Pass Splits Since 2004

2011-05-29T13:57:00.003-05:00

Now that I'm back from my trip to the former Yugoslavia, and my stomach is fully rested after consuming many liters of homemade sljivovica. It's time for me to get back into the swing of things. That means it's time for me to dig deep into some Iowa Hawkeyes numbers. Probably way deeper than is normal for any sane person. But, hey, I had two weeks pretty much cut off from the world. I'm well rested.

Anyway, for my first post back, I went back to 2004 to look at the Iowa Hawkeyes' run/pass tendencies under Kirk Ferentz. I only went back to 2004 because that is as far back as the Hawkeyesports.com's boxscores included the "play breakdown" section, which made this exercise easier than it would have been otherwise.

My main interest in looking at this, was that I wanted to see how Iowa under Ferentz, adjusted their offense based on what they have to work with from year to year. For instance, what does the Iowa play calling look like when they have a running back like Shonn Greene, as opposed to when Sam Brownlee is the man taking the majority of the carries?

A main limitation of this study, is the fact that not all box scores pointed out the difference between a quarterback who dropped back to pass and instead ran with the football, from a quarterback who took the snap and ran with the ball by design. Some box scores made this distinction, but most did not, which left me using things like down and distance to determine whether or not it was a called pass play or run play. For example, 3rd and 9, and Jake Christensen runs for 8 yards. It probably was not a designed run. Instead, it was probably the protection breaking down, and the quarterback scrambling for however many yards he could muster. The box score would count that as a running play, but I would call that a pass play, considering the coaching staff intended for that play to have the ball in the air. This makes my numbers look different from the numbers you would see if you looked up the run/pass splits from Hawkeyesports.com. My numbers aren't perfect, as I had to guess, but they are more accurate than the official websites numbers are.

Anyway, let's see the results.

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Comparing the First 12 Seasons of Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz: Different Styles, Similar Results?

2011-05-07T08:35:00.001-05:00

Note: This will be the last post for a few weeks. I will be out of the country, and will not have much access to the internet. Hopefully, this post is plenty good enough to get you through the next two weeks.

Iowa football has been extremely fortunate to only have two different head coaches in the last 32 years. Not many college football programs can boast about such a thing. Both have been quite successful at the University of Iowa, despite doing things in pretty different ways. Hayden Fry, the man known for making Iowa respectable in football again, was very outspoken and would do anything to get inside his opponents head. He even went so far as to paint the opposing locker room all pink. Supposedly, to create a calming effect before his opponent took the field. Fry's successor, Kirk Ferentz, is the polar opposite. Ferentz is very tight lipped, giving stock answers to media questions, never giving his opponents bulletin board material. They are very different styles, but both have benefited from the way they do things.

Mostly out of needing an idea for a post, I decided to look at their success while at Iowa. Interestingly enough, they have had eerily similar success, despite their career arcs looking quite a bit different.

Like always, be warned. For there are graphs and numbers below. Ooooh. Scary. Continue if you dare!

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A Trip Down Memory Lane: Shonn Greene vs Purdue 2008 (aka the Frank Duong Game)

2011-05-01T15:43:00.002-05:00

Note: This is a series I've decided to put together to get us through the long months until football kicks off. It could be a season, a game, or one play. Hell, it could be anything that stuck out to me at some point in time about Iowa sports. Either way, just enjoy this trip back in Hawkeye history.

2008 was Shonn Greene's season, and the rest of the Big 10 was just there for him to run through. Well, run through or run by. Because the 5'11 235 lb running back could also put a move on you too. Don't believe me? Ask Frank Duong. He witnessed firsthand these two talents that Greene possessed when Purdue visited Iowa City in November of 2008. While this game was awesome, it was probably Greene's second best effort of the year, as he had single-handedly demolished Wisconsin a month earlier. But, I chose this game to take deeper look at for a couple of reasons: 1) I was at this game, and Greene looked like a man amongst boys 2) He was basically Iowa's only offense on this day 3) This was his final game at Kinnick, and boy did he put on a show 4) Last but not least, from this game forward, I have referred to anyone who gets trucked in a game of football, as getting "Duong'd."

Before paying homage to Frank Duong, let's check out Greene's numbers from this game.

Carries Yards Yards Per Carry TD

30 211 7.03 2

Besides a 22 yard touchdown run by Jewel Hampton in the first quarter, Shonn Greene was the Iowa Hawkeyes offense that day. Going for over 200 yards on the ground and averaging more than 7 yards per carry.

This was Ricky Stanzi's first year under center, and he really looked like it. He finished the game with 72 yards passing on 15 attempts. Knowing that Greene was Iowa's best bet at picking up yards and running the clock down, Ferentz kept giving the ball to him. Iowa ran the ball 37 times, and, as you can see above, Greene received 81.08% of the carries, or 56.60% of Iowa's plays consisted of Greene carrying the ball. It was the kind of game plan that Kirk Ferentz seems to love: run the ball down the opponents throat, running the clock down, and then let your defense do it's thing. The nerve racking thing about it, from an Iowa fan's perspective, was that Purdue was keeping the game uncomfortably close (Thank God, Curtis Painter didn't play very much of this game).

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Ricky Stanzi's Place In Modern Hawkeye QB History

2011-04-30T14:09:00.000-05:00

Iowa has built up a reputation as an NFL factory over the past couple of years. NFL coaches, executives, and even the so called "experts" talk up Kirk Ferentz as one of the best at getting college kids ready to be NFL players. Iowa has had success putting offensive linemen, defensive linemen, tight ends, etc. into the professional ranks. However, there has been one position that Iowa has not had the same kind of luck with in recent years. Leading up to this year's draft, I'm sure Hawkeye fans have heard this fact ad nauseum: Iowa has not had a quarterback drafted since 1992. To be fair, nineteen years is a long time. Not to mention, that the last two Iowa quarterbacks were twelfth round picks, which obviously doesn't exist anymore. So, extending that back to 1987, when Mark Vlasic went in the fourth round, means that Iowa has not had a quarterback drafted in the first seven rounds of the draft in my lifetime. Well, Ricky Stanzi finally bucked that trend today, as the Chiefs picked him up in the fifth round. And let me be the first to say: It's about fucking time, Iowa.

With that out of the way, let's get down to what this post is really about. Where does Ricky Stanzi rank all time among modern Iowa quarterbacks (modern, in this case, being since 1970)? It's an interesting question to be sure. Stanzi had mediocre years during his Sophomore and Junior campaigns, leaving the Iowa faithful hoping that he would finally put it all together. Then, during his Senior year, Stanzi literally became "The Manzi." He went from being known as a fourth quarter comeback kid, to a complete four quarter quarterback. His first two years under center for Iowa, surely drag his career numbers down, but how far do his Senior numbers pull him back up Iowa's lists? Well, let's find out.

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Iowa Football Career Offensive Stats Since 1970

2011-04-29T14:51:00.002-05:00

As you no doubt know, we're currently in the middle of the college football offseason. And like most Hawkeye fans, I tend to find myself a little bored at times. Especially, when you consider that I follow a baseball team that continuously finds new and more frustrating ways to suck at the game they get paid to play. To try and minimize my boredom, I usually find myself browsing through many different stat sites to try and find a little nugget of information that I never knew or hadn't realized before. If that nugget happens to be Hawkeye related and interesting enough, then I post it on here.

Well, I was perusing totalfootballstats.com the other day, when I found a leaderboard for career passing, rushing, and receiving stats dating back to 1970 for Iowa football. Needless to say, I found this awesome, and once I found out it was sortable by category, I nearly cried out of happiness. However, I realized it didn't give me every statistic I wanted or they didn't present it how I would like. For instance, they give you TD% and INT%, which tells you the percentage of pass attempts that were touchdowns and interceptions. However, I prefer to see those stats as in how many attempts, on average, it took a quarterback to throw a touchdown or interception. So, I decided to input the numbers into a spreadsheet of my own (thank god for text to columns!). This allowed me to add the stats that I wanted. Anyway, I uploaded the spreadsheet onto Google Docs, for those who like to play around with this sort of thing.

The link can be found at: Iowa Football Career Offensive Stats Since 1970

Note: If the columns are not already sortable, then click the filter button up top. You can also download it into Excel if you'd like.

As a quick example of what you can do with this, I present to you: The Worst 5 Iowa Quarterbacks Since 1970 in Attempts per Interception for the Iowa Hawkeyes (min. 100 attempts):

1) Tom McLaughlin (1975-1977)- 12.33
2) Butch Caldwell (1972-1976)- 12.88
3) Kyle Skogman (1970-1973)- 13.89
4) Pete Gales (1978-1981)- 15.80
5) Rob Fick (1971-1974)- 16.15

The 1970's. The golden ages of Iowa football!

So, there you go. I think you get the point. Hopefully, you will enjoy this as much as I have so far. If you get nothing else out of this, though, at least you can be the life of the party, when you tell your friends that Arvell Nelson has the highest quarterback rating in the last four decades of Iowa football.*

*Arvell Nelson- 1 Game, 1-1, 12 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 200.80 QB Rating. Small sample sizes!

Follow Me on Twitter: GoHawks1123

A Trip Down Memory Lane: Tavian Banks' 1997 Season

2011-04-23T11:55:00.002-05:00

Note: This is a series I've decided to put together to get us through the long months until football kicks off. It could be a season, a game, or one play. Hell, it could be anything that stuck out to me at some point in time about Iowa sports. Either way, just enjoy this trip back in Hawkeye history.

Ah. 1997. I remember it just like it was yesterday. Actually, no I don't. Considering when the Hawkeyes kicked off the 1997 season, I was 3 months away from my tenth birthday, I don't remember a whole lot from that season. Here's what I do remember from that time period: 1) Tavian Banks was Awesome. 2) Tim Dwight was awesome. This post, however, is about the former rather than the latter. (I'll probably do a Dwight post at some point too).

Tavian Banks was my favorite player as a kid. Why? Well, this can probably explain why. He was a playmaker. Banks was more of a finesse runner, he wasn't going to bowl you over. But, his combo of great vision and speed, allowed him to make one cut and leave everybody in a cloud of dust. Every time he touched the ball, 9 year old me looked on in awe, because I knew there was a chance that something spectacular could take place.

Banks' career at Iowa had a bit of bad timing, however. The high school star, who chose Iowa over offers from Nebraska, Washington, and Miami, to name a few, attended Iowa during the same period that another very good running back was carrying the ball for the Hawkeyes. Sedrick Shaw and Tavian Banks were quite the one-two punch, going for over 1,500 yards on the ground combined in 1995 and over 2,000 in 1996. However, Shaw got the majority of the carries (316 to 66 in 1995 and 224 to 144 in 1996) during the time period that they were teammates.

When Shaw was drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft, Banks finally got his chance in 1997 to show what he could do as the number one running back. He didn't disappoint. His final line for the year looked like this:

Games Carries Yards TD YPC YPG Carries Per TD
11 260 1691 17 6.50 140.92 15.29

The former football and soccer star from Bettendorf, had gotten the most carries of his collegiate career and put up his best average yards per carry on top of it. Not to mention, he also set the Iowa single season record for rushing yards and touchdowns, which would stand for a little over a decade, when Shonn Greene would break them.

Banks had finally got his chance to be the number one guy during his Senior year, and he took the opportunity and ran with it. Literally. Since I'm not much of a writer, I didn't write this to be just a narrative on Tavian Banks career. I'm more interested in how good he was. In other words, the numbers. So, let's take a look at the damage Banks did to opposing teams during his 1997 campaign. Shall we?

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2010-2011 Offensive and Defensive Efficiency for the Big 10

2011-04-07T06:29:00.001-05:00

Mostly out of boredom (long ways off until football season), I decided to make a chart. What you will see below, is all Big 10 teams plotted by their Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. For those who aren't familiar with Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, they're basically points per possession multiplied by one hundred. They're tempo-neutral stats that you can compare to points per game. They allow you to compare how many points a team averages or allows in one hundred possessions. I used Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency from kenpom.com. The "Adjusted" part is just kenpom's way of adjusting for things I'm not smart enough to do, like strength of opponent.

I scaled them all so that 100 on each axis equals Big 10 average (The average offensive efficiency in the Big 10 this year was 113.56. For defense, 94.04). Anything above 100 is above average and anything below 100 is below average. For instance, 90 = 10% below average and 110 = 10% above average.

Enough stat speak. Lets get to it!

Above Average Offense and Defense:

Ohio State- Offensive Efficiency- 125.6 (11% above average), Defensive Efficiency 88.4 (6% above average). They were by far and away the best team in the Big 10 this year. They dominated on both sides of the ball.
Purdue- Offensive Efficiency- 115.3 (2% above average), Defensive Efficiency 89.5 (5% above average). Purdue was very good on both sides of the ball. However, because they only had two real offensive options most of the time, they were only 2% above average on offense.

Above Average Offense and Below Average Defense:

Wisconsin- Offensive Efficiency- 123.3 (9% above average), Defensive Efficiency 95.2 (1% below average). The Badgers were very good on offense, only slightly worse than Ohio State. On defense they were simply meh.
Northwestern- Offensive Efficiency- 115.5 (2% above average), Defensive Efficiency 99.7 (6% below average). Northwestern was a good offensive team and an atrocious defensive team (worst in the Big 10!). I know. I was shocked by this result too.

Above Average Defense and Below Average Offense:

Illinois- Offensive Efficiency- 112.7 (1% below average), Defensive Efficiency- 91.0 (3% above average). Illinois just edges out Michigan, as they were both pretty much even on offense, but Illinois was 2% better on defense.
Michigan- Offensive Efficiency- 112.8 (1% below average), Defensive Efficiency- 93.0 (1% above average). Michigan was about as average as average could get this year.
Michigan State- Offensive Efficiency- 109.1 (4% below average), Defensive Efficiency- 92.6 (2% above average). Michigan State was right in-between Illinois and Michigan on defense, but they were much worse on offense.

Below Average Offense and Defense:

Penn State- Offensive Efficiency- 112.9 (1% below average), Defensive Efficiency 95.5 (2% below average). I was kind of surprised that with Talor Battle and Jeff Brooks on their team, Penn State wasn't at least slightly above average on offense. The defense didn't surprise me one bit, however.
Minnesota- Offensive Efficiency- 109.4 (4% below average), Defensive Efficiency- 95.6 (2% below average). When you have Blake Hoffarber trying to play point guard for a portion of the season, you know it's not a good year.
Iowa- Offensive Efficiency- 103.6 (9% below average), Defensive Efficiency- 94.8 (1% below average). Iowa sported the worst offense in the Big 10 this year. On the bright side, the Hawkeyes' defense was only slightly below average.
Indiana- Offensive Efficiency- 109.0 (4% below average), Defensive Efficiency- 99.1 (5% below average). Indiana and Iowa were on a whole different level of sucktitude in the Big 10 this year. However, Indiana couldn't beat Iowa this year. So, suck it Hoosiers! We're number 10!

A Mid-Season Look at the Iowa Baseball Team: Part II

2011-04-03T10:14:00.000-05:00

This time, pitching!

Note: Once again, the stats from this post are through March 31 only. No Big 10 games are included in this data.

That looks a lot better than the offense. Now, Iowa's pitchers aren't what you would consider world beaters. However, they do get the job done. The most important thing in any sport is scoring and keeping the other team from scoring. Well, Iowa's pitchers have been decent at keeping runs off the board. Iowa's 5.22 R/9 allowed is 4% better than the league average of 5.42.

A big part of Iowa's ability to keep runs off the board has been keeping the ball in the park. Iowa's 0.27 HR/9, is third in the Big 10, and good for 18% above the league average of 0.33. As mentioned in the first post, Duane Banks Field should also help with this.

When it comes to strikeouts and walks, however, Iowa is below average. Iowa's 6.21 K/9, is 3% below the Big 10 average of 6.42. While, their ability to find the strike zone is a little worse, as their 4.23 BB/9 is 9% worse than the league average of 3.87.

Iowa's pitching graded out overall to 2% above average when taking into account all four scores from above. Their score of 102, tied Illinois for fourth best in the Big 10. Basically, Iowa has a bunch of pitchers who don't miss a lot of bats, walk too many guys, but keep the ball in the park, which keeps runs off the scoreboard. It may not be the prettiest, but it can get the job done. Kind of.

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A Mid-Season Look at the Iowa Baseball Team

2011-04-02T13:30:00.001-05:00

I love Baseball and I love the Iowa Hawkeyes. However, I follow Football and Basketball much closer than I do the Iowa Baseball team. Most of that is because they are rarely on TV. It also doesn't help that they haven't been historically good at the game, and this year hasn't been an exception so far.

Well, lately I've been thinking about ideas for a post on here, and finally the inspiration hit me. I was walking around Scheel's last weekend, and I saw this awesome Iowa Baseball shirt. I decided to buy it. I then thought to myself, I'm going to wear this and know close to nothing about the how the current team is doing this year. So, I decided to write about the Baseball season so far. One, so in case anybody asked me about my shirt, I could actually sound knowledgeable about the team. Two, because I actually would like to care about Iowa Baseball, more than I do now.

So, for this post the numbers are through March 31 only. None of the Big 10 games played yet are in here. In this post, I'll be looking at offense only. Tomorrow will be pitching. Let's go!

Offense:

This is how Iowa's bats stack up to the Big 10 average. Not very good. Iowa is 5% below average at getting on base (OBP). Iowa as a team gets on base at a .344 clip, compared to the .362 league average OBP. They are also 43% below average in the power category, which I measured by Isolated Power (ISO). For those not familiar with ISO, it is simply Slugging Percentage (SLG) - Batting Average (AVG). It gets rid of the singles a player hits, leaving you with the average extra bases per plate appearance for a hitter. The Hawkeyes ISO is a measly .056, compared to the Big 10 average of .099. Iowa is also 22% below Big 10 average in scoring runs (Runs per 9 innings). Iowa is scoring 4.30 R/9 this year, while the average Big 10 team is scoring 5.50. They are, however, 4% above average when you look at their strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB). Iowa averages 1.75 strikeouts for every 1 walk. The Big 10 average is 1.82 K:BB.

Look at Iowa's triple slash line: .247/.344/.303. Now look at the average Big 10 team: .281/.362/.380. That is why Iowa's offensive scores on the above chart averaged out to an offense that is 17% below the Big 10 average.

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2010-2011 Season in Review: Devon Archie

2011-03-22T06:39:00.000-05:00

At 6'9" 225 lbs, Devon Archie looks like a man that was born to play basketball. He has long arms and a very good vertical for a guy his size. However, that athletic ability hasn't quite translated into basketball talent. He's like that prospect in every baseball fan's farm system, that has the tools to be a good player but he just never develops. He is like the prospect that can hit the ball a mile long when he makes contact, the problem is he doesn't make contact very often. For those very knowledgeable in baseball, Archie is like Greg Halman (Mariners farm system, Google him if you don't know).

Archie will be a redshirt Senior next year, and after four years of college ball (two years at Iowa), the only thing that has developed is his knack for grabbing rebounds. In his 8 minutes per game this year (only 23 games played), Archie pulled down 24.87% of the opposing team's misses, and corralled 18.06% of Iowa's misses. Those are pretty insane rebounding numbers, even if they are only in 8 minutes stints. Other than the rebounding, Archie has flashed the ability to make a nice post move or block a few shots, but nothing real consistent. Going into next year, Archie is probably a bigger question mark than Brommer is. Like I mentioned with Marble and May, Archie has the tools, he just needs to put them together. The difference is, that unlike the other two, who have multiple years remaining, Archie only has next year to do it.

Strengths:

Rebounding- This is the biggest tool in Archie's arsenal. The problem is, that only playing 8 minutes per game limits him from racking up more than about 2 or 3 rebounds per game. If he would have put up the same defensive rebounding rate and offensive rebounding rate, but played more minutes per game, Archie would have finished first in the Big 10 in offensive rebounding and third in defensive rebounding. If he were to increase his minutes to 20 minutes per game, and still grab rebounds at the same 0.36 rebounds per minute pace, he would average 7.17 rebounds per game. That would be pretty valuable for Iowa. The main question is can he do enough in practice, to make Fran get him some playing time? Because his rebounding ability is pretty useless on the bench.

Weaknesses:

Free Throw Shooting- Saying Archie is bad at shooting free throws is an understatement. A more descriptive adjective would probably be something more like horrendous. Of his 23 attempts from the free throw line this year, he made only 6 (26.09%). Even more than that, he also had two airballs from the free throw line. One in partciular, I think during the last game vs Purdue, he had one that not only came up short of the rim, but it looked to be wide right of the rim also. If I remember correctly, it was so bad that it made Sportscenter's Not Top 10. Ummm.... So, yeah. Work on that Devon.

2010-2011 Season in Review: Andrew Brommer

2011-03-21T06:32:00.000-05:00

Andrew Brommer is a bit of an enigma. For every 12 point, 6 rebound, and 3 block game like he had at Ohio State this year, there were ten games similar in nature to the 2 point, 2 rebound, 2 block, and 5 foul game like he had at Michigan State. Then you have his season stats, which are just as enigmatic. Brommer's 56.94% eFG%, was second best on the team. His 0.25 points per minute, however, was second to last on the team. His offensive rebounding rate of 8.87% was pretty good, finishing nineteenth in the the Big 10. His defensive rebounding rate of 13.97%, on the other hand, was twenty eighth in the Big 10. Brommer actually showed a pretty good talent for finding the cutter in the lane, as he had a decent assist rate for a big man, at 11.1%. Unfortunately, he also showed a pretty good talent for giving the ball to the other team, as his 28% turnover rate was third worst in the Big 10. Add to all of that, the fact that he had major fouling problems this year, and you see why he was an enigma. Basically, for every good thing Brommer did, he also had one equally or worse bad thing that he did. Which, leaves Iowa fans wondering what they can expect from him next year, when he will most likely need to step into a bigger role. Brommer's senior year will be now or never, and I hope the answer is now.

Strengths:

Shooting- Brommer went from a 38.4% eFG% (10-26 FG) last year, to a 56.9% eFG% (41-72 FG) this year. Brommer's shooting was helped by the fact that he took 55 shots in the paint, where he just so happened to shoot 67.86% on field goal attempts from there. Unlike, like some other players on the team, Brommer actually played to his strength this year.
Offensive Rebounding- Brommer's offensive rebounding rate has taken a step forward every year since his freshman year. This year he pulled down 8.87% of all available missed shots by Iowa this year, while he was on the court. That number is not great, but it's decent. The reason I put it in strengths, is because since it has increased every year, it's pretty realistic to think that it could jump up to about 10% next year. For reference, Jarryd Cole had a 10.63% offensive rebounding rate this year. If Brommer can get that up to about 10%, and keep himself in the game for longer than the 12.52 minutes per game he averaged this year, then he could be a nice asset on the offensive glass next season.

Weaknesses:

Turnovers- I've already mentioned in a few of these posts, that Iowa was a turnover plagued team this season. Well, Brommer was the most turnover prone player on the turnover plagued Hawkeyes. His 28% turnover rate was third worst in the Big 10 this season. If you take the non-conference games out of the picture, then Brommer's 33.3% turnover rate (!) was the worst in the Big 10. It wasn't just worse by a little, either. He was almost 3% worse than the number two player, who just so happened to be Iowa's own Zach McCabe (We so dominated at turning the ball over this year). If you go beyond Iowa's turnover twins, Brommer was worse than Keith Appling by almost 5%. Also, unlike his offensive rebounding rate, Brommer's turnover rate is trending in the wrong direction. In Brommer's freshman year, he had a 22.5% turnover rate. That increased to 25% his sophomore year, and then to 28% this year. Knock it off, Andrew.
Free Throw Shooting- He wasn't the worst on the team (it's hard to be worse than Archie at free throws), but he was the second worst free throw shooter for Iowa this year. In 33 free throw attempts this year, he made only 14 (42.42%). If you want another example of Brommer being enigmatic, well then look at his free throw shooting. His freshman year, he made 5 of his 22 free throw attempts (22.7%). During his sophomore campaign, he made 18-24 from the line (75%). He then built off of that good showing, by going 14-33 this year. So, who knows what the hell he'll do next year? He could go 30-40, or he could go 18-40. Neither would surprise me.
Fouling- To get an idea of how much of a fouling problem, Brommer had this year, one should look at his stats adjusted to 40 minutes per game. If a Brommer were able to play a full 40 minute game, and continued to foul at the same rate, he would average 6.80 fouls per game. Technically, he wouldn't actually be able to reach 6.80 fouls per game, as he would have fouled out just before the 30 minute mark (29 minutes and 23 seconds to be more precise). But, to get an idea of how often he fouled the opposing team, here is a graph comparing his fouls per 40 minutes to other stats he would compile in the same amount of time:

2010-2011 Season in Review: Zach McCabe

2011-03-20T10:46:00.001-05:00

Unlike fellow freshman Devyn Marble, whose playing time increased as the competition got tougher (Thanks in part to Eric May). Zach McCabe's playing time went the opposite direction as Big 10 play started. Here's a handy graph:

Now, McCabe is sort of a "tweener." He lacks the ideal height for a power forward and the athleticism for a small forward. So, he goes back and forth between positions on the court. As Basabe and Marble's playing time increased, and May's never dipped below 20 minutes per game, there was less playing time left for the struggling McCabe.

Though, his season may not have ended the way he would have liked it, McCabe did show some promise. He flashed some shooting ability from downtown at times (when he was on he was on, but when he was off....) and he was also a pretty good rebounder. He didn't have a great season overall, but he was only a freshman. With some more development, McCabe definitely has the talent to be a very good role player for Iowa for the next couple of years.

Strengths:

Rebounding- McCabe's 15.25% defensive rebounding rate and 6.64% offensive rebounding rate, finished the season right between Iowa's post players and wing players. He was nestled nicely between Brommer and Marble. His defensive rebounding rate was good for twenty second in the conference. While, his offensive rebounding rate was good for twenty sixth in the conference. Both numbers are pretty good when you consider that McCabe spent a lot of time out behind the arc.

Free Throw Shooting- McCabe was easily Iowa's second best shooter from the free throw line this year. His 80.43% free throw percentage was only worse than Gatens' on the team, and was better than third place by about 9%. If there was one thing that McCabe was consistent in shooting this year, it was free throws.

Weaknesses:

Shooting- McCabe made only 51.02% of his shots in the paint. Easily, worst on the team by about 10% (team average = 68.86%). McCabe also made only 28.57% of his three point attempts (team average = 31.40%). As you will see later, both of these categories took a huge hit when McCabe started playing against Big 10 opponents. Overall, his 42.01 eFG% was pretty underwhelming. Let's hope this improves next year.
Turnovers- McCabe, like most freshmen, had a bit of a turnover problem. His 24.3% turnover rate was tenth worst in the Big 10 this year. However, Andrew Brommer and Eric May were even worse this year. That's right. Iowa had three players in the top 10 at coughing up the ball this year. If you want to expand it to the worst 15, Iowa adds Cartwright and Basabe to the mix. That's 33.3% of the top 15. Easily the best. Yay! We won at something!

2010-2011 Season in Review: Devyn Marble

2011-03-19T11:47:00.000-05:00

Devyn Marble, as everybody knows, is the son of the all time leading scorer in Iowa Men's Basketball history. However, coming out of high school, Devyn (Roy Jr.) wasn't as heralded as his father was. Instead, he came to Iowa as a developmental guy. He's long and athletic, but he still needs a lot of polish. The potential is there, though. You can see it flash at times (ex: Iowa's first game vs Indiana, and second game vs Michigan).

On most Big 10 teams, Marble would have redshirted. But, Iowa's lack of depth, did not allow McCaffery the option of putting the redshirt on him. So, to start the season, Marble was Iowa's back up shooting guard to Matt Gatens. Then Cully Payne went down to injury, and Marble became Iowa's back up point guard too. He performed about as well as you could ask from him, playing a position that he was clearly not suited for. He wasn't good, but he wasn't horrible (ex: Purdue game when Cartwright was injured). And really, that that sums up Marble's season in one sentence. He wasn't good, but he wasn't horrible either.

Strengths:

Shooting in the Paint- Notice how I said "in the paint." Marble was one of the worst shooters on the team this year, but when it came to scoring in the paint, he was one of the best. He took 41 shots inside the paint this year, and connected on 32 of them. His 78.05% FG% in the paint was second on the team to Jarryd Cole.
Defense- This is based more on potential, than actual results. In reality, Iowa had a bad defense this year. But, at the end of the year, when Marble was inserted into the starting lineup, Fran made it a point to put him on the opposing team's best scorer at times. He wasn't always successful, as guys like Darius Morris could tell you, but he was better than the other options. Cartwright is good at a lot of things, but defense is not one of them. Gatens is a pretty good defender at times, but his lack of foot speed regularly got him beat on back door passes this year (ex: Northwestern) Eric May, well, does anybody know what went on with him this year? All three of those problems, left Marble looking like the best option for Iowa on defense. What did Marble bring to the table? Well, Marble has a lot of upside on defense. He's a quick enough to stay with athletic wing players, and also has long enough arms to help keep his man in front of him. I'm not saying he will develop into a lockdown defender, but he can definitely be a good one down the road.

Weaknesses:

All Other Shooting- Once Marble starts moving away from the basket, he becomes a very inefficient shooter. He made only 25% of his two point shots outside of the paint (team average = 28.17%) and 26.83% of his three point field goal attempts (team average = 31.40%). You can even add free throw shooting to this category. Marble only made 53.03% of his free throw attempts this year (team average = 67.55%). That was better than only Devon Archie (26.09%) and Andrew Brommer (42.42%), which is not at all a compliment. Marble was easily the worst on the team by a wing player, as Eric May was the next worst, shooting 60.38% from the charity stripe. Now, all of this is not to say that Marble won't get better. I certainly expect him too, as he was only a freshman this year. But, this is to say, that he needs to do a lot of shooting this offseason.

2010-2011 Season in Review: Jarryd Cole

2011-03-16T06:47:00.000-05:00

On a young Iowa Hawkeye team, Jarryd Cole was the lone Senior in the starting lineup. Considering Cole's story is probably fresh in your mind from the lead up to the Senior Day game against Purdue, I won't repeat it. That isn't what this post is about anyways. This post is to review his Senior year, which turned out to be a pretty good one.

It began a little shaky in November, as he started the season with an injury (foot?), which led to him playing only 18.86 minutes per game. However, even with limited playing time, he still averaged 0.32 points per minute in November, while grabbing a 5.71% offensive rebounding rate and a 18.23% defensive rebounding rate. In December, Cole's playing time increased, his points per minute stayed steady, and his rebounding exploded. His offensive rebounding rate for the month was an insane 22.92% (small sample sizes, but wow!), and his defensive rebounding rate was 23.89%. He was at the top of his game.

Then January came, and Cole went silent. His offensive rebounding rate fell back down to around 5%, and his defensive rebounding rate came down to an okay, but not great 14.66%. Not to mention, his points per minute fell to 0.24 (yikes!). I was a little worried, thinking that the tougher competition was getting the best of Cole. No worries, though, as he just needed the Calendar to turn. In February/March, his points per minute shot up to his best of the year, topping out at 0.36. It was partially due to a little good luck, as he shot an unsustainable 64.18% eFG% in those ten games (small sample sizes!), but he was still good. His offensive rebounding rate in February/March, was a more realistic 9.39%, as was his 20.09% defensive rebounding rate (both very close to his season averages). Even though Cole had some rough spots this season, he was still one of the most dependable players on the team. Especially, down the stretch.

Strengths:

Rebounding- With a 10.63% offensive rebounding rate, that was good enough for ninth best in the Big 10. Not to mention, a 19.25% defensive rebounding rate, that finished eighth in the conference. It's pretty safe to say that rebounding was a strength for Cole. Basabe and Archie were the two best rebounders on the team, but Cole wasn't too far behind. He actually outperformed Basabe on the defensive boards in December and February/March. So, he definitely deserves some credit.
Getting to the Free Throw Line- Not including Devon Archie, who only attempted 32 field goals this year, Cole led the team in free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goals attempted). On the year, he took 93 free throws compared to 162 field goal attempts, good for a 0.57 free throw rate. Never once, did he drop below 0.42 for any month (team average = 0.34). In fact, in December he had a ridiculous 0.86 free throw rate. He attempted 25 free throws compared to 29 field goals. Just to see crazy his December was, here's a graph:

Shooting- Even though Cole isn't known for his scoring ability, he was actually a very efficient scorer. He finished his career with 59.60% eFG% (never dipping below 56.7% in his four years at Iowa), and he averaged 1.20 points per scoring attempt this year (second best on the team). I should also mention, that his 78.41% FG% on shots in the paint was the best on the team, and his 31.51% FG% on two point shots outside the paint was second on the team, behind only Gatens. Just for reference, the team average FG% on shots in the paint was 68.86% and 28.17% for two point shots outside the paint. Have I made Jarryd's case yet? He was a pretty damn good shooter.

Weaknesses:

Blocks- This is probably nitpicking, and I'm not saying he wasn't good on defense. I don't recall yelling at my TV because Cole had some mental lapse on defense. He actually looked good on defense, mostly because he had a big physical body, that could bang with the bigger post players. However, he was an undersized center. So, it probably isn't that surprising that he was not that great at rejecting opponents shots. But, considering he never topped a 2% block rate his entire career at Iowa, is kind of surprising to me. Blocks aren't a huge deal, but Cole's game was pretty well-rounded during his Senior year. He wasn't a huge scoring threat, but he was never seen as the top scoring option on the team. He also cut his turnovers this year, by a lot. And so he didn't really leave much for me to complain about. Feel free to let me know if I'm missing anything, but I think Cole had a very nice Senior season.

2010-2011 Season in Review: Melsahn Basabe

2011-03-15T06:45:00.002-05:00

Make no mistake. Melsahn Basabe looks to be a star. I still find it hard to believe that if Fran McCaffery hadn't been hired at Iowa, Basabe could have been dominating the MAAC last year. Instead, he was dominating the paint in one of the toughest basketball conferences in Division I. Iowa fans knew Basabe had some talent when he showed up in Iowa City and dominated the Prime Time League. Not that the Prime Time League is necessarily something you want to evaluate a player off of, as defense is not of much importance in the "pick up" style games that are played. So, expectations were still pretty tempered for Basabe coming into his freshman campaign. This is where his season became pretty much the opposite of Eric May's.

November was a pretty good month for Basabe, as he averaged 0.35 points per minute on a 54.29% eFG%. He also had a 10.19% offensive rebound rate and 21.43% defensive rebounding rate. If he kept those numbers up all season, nobody could have complained. Those are solid numbers, especially for a true freshman. However, Basabe wasn't fine with those numbers. Instead, he decided to up his scoring, shooting, and offensive rebounding. He finished the season averaging 0.45 points per minute (best on the team) on a 57.21% eFG% (also best on the team), pulling down 13.29% of all offensive and 19.83% of all defensive rebounds available while he was on the court. Those were his numbers as a freshman. Let me say that one more time. Basabe was only a freshman this year. If he keeps this up, he is going to be one of the best players to ever put on an Iowa jersey.

Strengths:

Scoring- Basabe was the best on the team at putting the ball in the basket this year. His 0.45 points per minute, was tied with Trevor Mbakwe for number 12 in the Big 10 this year. However, if you cut that list down to freshmen, Basabe came in fourth, behind only Ohio State's Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas, and Michigan's Tim Hardaway Jr. Need I say more? Well, one more thing. A graph!

Shooting- Not only did Basabe put the ball in the hoop at a fantastic rate. He also did it very efficiently. As I mentioned in the intro, his 57.21% eFG% was the best on the team. Not to mention, his 1.21 points per scoring attempt was also number one on the team this year. Whenever Basabe put's a shot up, especially in the paint, it's going to drop more often than not.
Rebounding- Basabe was the best rebounder on the team, who actually played a majority of the games (Archie was a rebounding machine when on the court). His 19.83% defensive rebounding rate finished sixth in the Big 10. His 13.29% offensive rebounding rate finished third in the Big 10. However, during conference play, Basabe stepped it up and came away with a 15.27% offensive rebounding rate, which was the best in the Big 10. Yeah. He was only a freshman.
Blocks- When you look at Basabe, one of the things you notice about him is his long arms. The man has a pretty good wingspan. So, it should not come as any surprise that he was one of the best in the conference at swatting away opponents shots this season. Basabe blocked 6.08% of all opponents shots, while he was on the court last year. That was good enough for fifth in the conference, behind only Dallas Lauderdale, Ralph Sampson III, Mike Tisdale, and JaJuan Johnson. Pretty good company, eh?

Weaknesses:

Turnovers- Basabe had a bit of a problem giving the ball to the other team this year. His 22.1% was sixteenth worst in the conference. While it wasn't as bad as some of his teammates, it's still too high. A lot of times his turnover problems came from reacting way too late to double teams. The game at Illinois springs to mind. He needs to realize that other teams know that he is Iowa's best player. That means that he is going to see double teams when he catches the ball. He needs to get rid of the ball before that second man comes over and tries to trap him. Whether, that means him making a quick post move and putting up a shot, or kicking the ball out to an open teammate on the perimeter. The good news is, he has plenty of time to fix this.
Fouling- I could have labeled this inconsistency, as usually when he had his worst game, it was because he got in early foul trouble and took himself out of the game. When you get two fouls in the first half, you know Fran is going to yank you. Basabe is one of the the last players, that Iowa can afford to see come out of the game early. When he can string the big games together, without having one or two where he takes himself out of the equation, that will be when he takes the next step. Once again, he's young. He'll learn with experience.

2010-2011 Season in Review: Eric May

2011-03-14T06:37:00.001-05:00

Eric May's season could probably be summed up by this one graph:

Thanks for reading. See you next time. Kidding. But, this season was pretty much a nightmare for Eric May. I remember before the season started, there were people predicting he would have a breakout season and end up the best player on the team. Well, they would have been right, had the season only lasted one month and ended in November. Because once December started, May fell off a cliff, and just kept falling until the end of the season. His big November was largely the result of an unsustainable 60.42% eFG%. His eFG% came back down in the following months: 40.38% in December, 44.44% in January, and 42.71% in February/March. As May's shots stopped going in the basket as much, he looked like he started to lose confidence in his game. This led to May taking fewer and fewer shots per game. Let's see, taking fewer shots and making fewer shots, doesn't seem like a great recipe for success. Yet that's exactly what happened with Eric May. Now, this offseason becomes crucial for May, as he tries to fix whatever the hell went wrong this year.

Strengths:

Athleticism- May is one of the best athlete's on the team (I say "one of" because Basabe and Archie are pretty damn athletic too). Every Iowa fan sits on the edge of their seat when Eric May gets out in front on a fast break. The anticipation of his thunderous dunks are almost as exciting as the dunks themselves. His athleticism also allows him to be one of the best guys on the team at creating his own shot. May tied Marble this year, for third on the team in creating their own shot, as 50% of his field goals were of the unassisted variety. May is a raw talent. He's the guy that just oozes athletic ability, and you hope he can be developed into a complete basketball player.

Weaknesses:

Turnovers- May finished the season ninth worst in the Big 10 in turnovers, with a 24.7% turnover rate. What's really disappointing about that number, is that it is about 4% worse than his freshman year, where he had a turnover rate of 20.4%. Iowa, as a team, had a big turnover problem this year. Eric May was just a small part of it. Which means, this isn't the last you will hear of turnovers in the weakness column.
Free Throws- May took almost the same exact number of free throws this year (53), as he did last year (57). However, he made about 6% less of them this year (32 compared to 38). His 60.4% free throw percentage trended the wrong way this year. Hopefully, next year it well trend back toward 70%.

2010-2011 Season in Review: Matt Gatens

2011-03-13T09:53:00.001-05:00

Gatens had an up and down year. Before the season started, in October, Gatens injured his thumb. As a result, he missed the first two games of the season. When he returned, he was clearly not healthy. His injured thumb caused him to average 0.33 points per minute (8.20 points per game) shoot a 33.33% eFG%, and connect on only 21.05% of his three point attempts. When December rolled around and his thumb was feeling better, Gatens went off. He averaged 0.45 points per minute (16.17 points per game) on a 58.57% eFG%, and making 36% of his three point attempts. In January, he improved to 41.86% from behind the arc, but his points per minute dropped to 0.39 (13.50 points per game) as he saw more difficult competition. Still good, though.

However, the ten games in February and March, weren't particularly kind to Gatens. His three point percentage took a dive, falling to 27.45%. His eFG% was still a decent 45.63%, but because of his shooting dip, his points per minute fell to 0.34 (12 points per game). Very similar to his 0.33 mark he put up in November when he was injured. Gatens finished the season shooting 33.1% from downtown, and making many fans wonder what happened to the player who hit 40.3% of his three point attempts during his freshman year. It was a solid year from the lifelong Hawkeye (he did average 12.62 points per game), but it still left a lot of people questioning whether or not he was overrated.

Strengths:

Scoring- Gatens took a step forward scoring-wise this year. His 0.38 points per minute was up from his 0.32 his freshman year and his 0.33 his sophomore year. It's even more impressive, when you consider he put up the equivalent to his sophomore average of 0.33 points per minute, in November, when he shot very poorly because of his injured thumb. Even when he's injured, he will still put points on the board.
Outside Shooting- A lot of people are down on Gatens' shooting this year. His 48.4% eFG% was better than his Sophomore campaign (45.5%), but worse than his Freshman campaign (52.3%). His three point field goal percentage was the same way: 33.1% this year, compared to 32.8% last year and 40.3% his freshman year. However, the injury and the cold streak he was on during the last month of the season really hurt him. In December and January, Gatens shot 38.71% from long range, which is much closer to that 40% mark that everybody has been waiting for Gatens to repeat. If Gatens hadn't been hurt in the first month, his overall three point percentage probably would have been much better, and would have been able to withstand the terrible February and March that he had shooting the three. Not to mention, that his 37.04% FG% on two point attempts outside the paint was the best on the team. When you consider that Iowa, as a team, shot 28.17% from out there, Gatens looks very good. The guy is a shooter.
Free Throws: Gatens 87.36% free throw percentage is almost 7% better than Zach McCabe's, who is number two on Iowa. I should also mention that Gatens finished number one in the Big 10 in this category for the second time in his three year career. The other time, was when he made 90.4% of his free throws during his freshman year. A lot of his comparisons go back to his freshman year.

Weaknesses:

Quickness: Gatens isn't the most fleet of foot, and this has caused him some problems. I can remember multiple times where this has gotten him beaten on defense this year. Specifically, back door passes against Northwestern, quickly come to mind. This also limits his offensive game, and explains pretty well why he gets so much of his value from shooting the three point shot. He's not a threat to take the ball to the basket.
Finishing at the Basket: Speaking of which, Gatens has always seemed to struggle when taking the ball to the hoop. He doesn't always go up strong, and that allows the opposing team's big men to contest or block the shot without Gatens drawing the foul. It's such a small part of his game, that it isn't necessarily a big deal for Gatens, except for games like at Minnesota this year, where he shot 1-6 (16.67%) on shots in the paint. But, it is interesting to note, that Gatens' 61.82% FG% on shots in the paint, was second worst on the team behind McCabe who shot a horrible 51.02%. The team average was 68.86%. So, yeah. That is why I listed this under weaknesses.

2010-2011 Season in Review: Bryce Cartwright

2011-03-12T11:09:00.001-06:00

Bryce Cartwright came out of nowhere for Iowa fans. Literally, nowhere. The point guard (who announcers loved to remind us was straight out of Compton) showed up on campus mysteriously for a visit last June. Four days later, he verbally committed to the Hawkeyes. He wasn't very hyped, and I, like most Hawkeye fans, didn't have high expectations for Cartwright this season. I mean, he committed in June, and everyone knows there aren't any good players waiting to sign in June. Well, Cartwright was a pleasant surprise. The expectations bar was set low, but Cartwright didn't just walk over it. He launched himself over it. Iowa's incumbent starting point guard, Cully Payne, went down for the season, and Cartwright was the only healthy point guard on the roster. He wasn't really anything special in November or December, but once Big 10 play kicked off, Cartwright exploded onto the scene. His 43.01% assist rate, finished number one in the Big 10 in conference play (he finished number two, overall, in the Big 10 in assist rate, behind Darius Morris). He wasn't perfect, as he was not the most efficient scorer, and did have a bit of a turnover problem. However, he exceeded all expectations that anybody had of him coming into the season. Coach McCaffery found a diamond in the rough.

Strengths:

Passing the Ball- Cartwright became one of the best passing point guards Iowa has had in a long time. I have vivid memories of him threading that bounce pass into a streaking Jarryd Cole vs Purdue, throwing up close to half-court alley-oops to Eric May vs Michigan State, and delivering beautiful bounce passes on pick and rolls to Andrew Brommer for easy dunks.
Transition- Cartwright was at his best this year, when he was in transition. Like I mentioned above, the bounce pass to Cole and the alley-oops to May, all came in transition. Cartwright also seemed to be at his best when he brought the ball up court, and immediately tried to get into the paint. That left him the option of taking the high percentage shot or finding Basabe or Cole for an easy layup.

Weaknesses:

Shooting- Cartwright could put points on the scoreboard, but as his 42.08% eFG% shows, it often times took him a lot more shots than many would have liked. As you will see below, that also probably had a lot to do with the kinds of shots he takes. It still remains funny to me how an inefficient shooter like Cartwright, is Iowa's go to guy at the end of a game. I'm not a big believer in somebody being "clutch" (I use the term, but don't actually think that clutch is a talent), so I would prefer someone like Gatens taking the shot (who everybody says is the most unclutch guy on the team), since the percentages say he is the better shooter. However, Cartwright did hit key end of game jumpers at Indiana and vs Purdue. Not to mention, that he did hit six buzzer beating shots at halftime this year. He would have had seven, if he would have gotten that full court heave against Michigan off in time. This is nothing against Cartwright, I just don't believe in "clutch." I believe that one guy shoots a disproportionate amount of end of game shots, so he is more likely to make a few, and have the "clutch" label applied to him. Just my opinion. Now, back to your regularly scheduled program.
Turnovers- Cartwright had a propensity to force some passes into guys who weren't open at times. His 24.05% turnover rate, was second worst only to Ohio State's Aaron Craft, in turnover rate by Big 10 points guards. I can't complain a whole lot, though, because that same aggressiveness that led to a few too many turnovers, is also the same aggressiveness that allowed him to rack up his conference play leading 43.01% assist rate.

Iowa vs Michigan State Round III Recap: 61-66 L

2011-03-11T06:43:00.001-06:00

Well, the season is now officially over for the Hawkeyes. I can't really complain. Iowa's record wasn't amazing, but nobody expected it to be. All fans ask from a young team like this, is for improvement. I think we all have seen that improvement this year. Which means, Fran has kept his promise so far. He has got this fanbase excited about basketball again. So, thank you Fran. Let's do it again next season.

Just like eight days ago, life prevented me from watching Iowa play Michigan State. Although, this time I was actually able to listen to the first half on the radio. But, what follows is, once again, what I noticed from looking over the box score. It's weird to think that last year, I missed Iowa play Michigan in the Big 10 Tournament, because I was in a European Politics class. This year I missed it, because I had to work. Life needs to stop interfering with my sports.

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Iowa vs Purdue Round II Recap: 67-65 W

2011-03-06T10:26:00.001-06:00

WOOOOOOO!!!! That was easily the best win of the season, and a signature win for McCaffery. But, even better, it was also a the best possible way to send Jarryd Cole out. I'm sorry Jarryd had to be witness to such a down period in Iowa basketball, but I'm glad he got to exit Carver in style. Awesome. Fucking. Game.

Bullet Points!

Shooting-wise, holy shit (I swear when I'm excited), Iowa went and did what Purdue did to them in the first match up. Iowa didn't shoot great, putting up a 45.8% effective FG%, themselves. However, they held the Boilermakers to a 39.9% effective FG%. Iowa made 46% of their two point shots, 30% of their three point shots, and 63.2% from the free throw line. Purdue made 45.4% of their two point attempts, 20% of their three point attempts, and 58.8% from the charity stripe. A clean sweep for the Hawkeyes. That hasn't happened very much in Big 10 play.

What is Wrong With Eric May?

2011-03-05T13:48:00.001-06:00

Coming into the season, a lot of people thought that, by the end of the year, Eric May could be the best player on the team. In November, he clearly looked the part. Now, though, he has become a role player, who doesn't seem to know his role. So, what the hell happened? Let's look at some numbers.

First, lets look at his points per minute and points per scoring attempt.

Clearly, Eric May shot out of his mind in November. He put up 1.20 points per scoring attempt that month, which helped him score 0.47 points per minute. Since then, however, he has pretty much dropped off the map. His points per minute have declined every month, and February is currently his worst scoring month this year.

Last year, May averaged exactly 1 point per scoring attempt. He is at 1.01 for the season thanks to his monstrous November. But, it's pretty clear to see over the last three months, that he is not putting the ball in the basket as efficiently as he is capable of.

So, what has led to the dip in shooting efficiency? Well, let's look at his shooting percentages.

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Iowa vs Purdue Round II Preview

2011-03-05T10:26:00.001-06:00

Hopefully, every single Hawkeye fan at Carver today will give Jarryd Cole a standing ovation. He has been through the darkest period in Iowa basketball history, and he's been nothing short of classy about the whole situation. He has been a solid guy on the court, and a quality character guy off of it. I for one, am going to miss Jarryd Cole. It's too bad he never got a chance to be a part of a winning Iowa Hawkeye team. He deserved better. Thank you, Jarryd.

Now, the preview.

Last time:
Iowa vs Purdue Preview
Iowa vs Purdue Recap: 55-72 L

Iowa Offense vs Purdue Defense

Iowa's offense is in for a fun one today! Purdue's defense is really damn good. After the Michigan State debacle, Iowa is still 1% below the NCAA average in effective FG%. Purdue, on the other hand, is 8% better than the NCAA average at contesting shots. Their 45.6% opponent effective FG%, is number one in the Big 10. Last time, Purdue held Iowa to a 38.5% effective FG%. While I wouldn't expect Iowa to shoot that horrible again, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they do either.

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Iowa vs Michigan State Round II Recap: 66-85 Loss

2011-03-03T06:38:00.001-06:00

For the record, I didn't actually watch this game, as life got in the way of me enjoying this 19 point ass-kicking at the hand of the Spartans. That means that this post will be straight from the box score, since I didn't see what actually happened on the court, and it'll probably be pretty truncated too. I do, however, have this game on DVR. But, after looking over the box score, I'm not so sure I want to sit down and put myself through that kind of pain.

Anyhow, Bullet Points!

Let's start with shooting. Iowa shot a lowly 41.07% effective FG%. They made 52.27% of their two point shots (good), 60.61% of their free throws (bad), and 0% of their three pointers (ugly). Michigan State, on the other hand, put up a 60.91% effective FG%. They converted on 54.55% of their two pointers, 50% of their three's, and 66.67% of their free throw's. You aren't going to win many games when you get out shot by that margin.
Looking at rebounding, Michigan State grabbed 53.62% of all rebounds, compared to Iowa's 46.38%. The Spartans also beat the Hawkeyes on the offensive glass, 30% to 28.21%, and on the defensive glass, 71.79% to 70%. After they grabbed 40% of their own misses in the last game against Iowa, I'm surprised they only came down with 30% this time.
Iowa ended 16.74% of their possessions with an assisted field goal. They also ended 15.35% of their possessions with a turnover. Those two totals were good for a 1.07 assist to turnover ratio. Michigan State finished 27.87% of their possessions with an assist, while only giving the ball up on 18.12% of them. Good for a 1.54 assist to turnover ratio. If you haven't noticed, there wasn't much that Iowa won this game.

Iowa vs Michigan State Round II Preview

2011-03-02T06:33:00.001-06:00

Iowa Offense vs Michigan State Defense

Shooting-wise, Iowa is still a slightly below NCAA average shooting team. However, Michigan State is only slightly above average at contesting opponent's shots. This was seen in the first game between these two teams, when Iowa shot a 60.6% effective FG%, about 12% above their season average. That's probably way higher than I would expect Iowa to shoot this time. But, I could see Iowa shooting somewhere in the 52-54% range.

The battle between Iowa going for offensive rebounds and Michigan State going for defensive rebounds, should be pretty interesting. Iowa has been 7% above NCAA average at grabbing offensive boards this year. While, Michigan State is 9% above NCAA average at pulling down defensive rebounds. In the last game, Michigan State outrebounded Iowa, both offensively and defensively. However, Iowa did grab 34.8% of all of their misses, which is basically their season average of 34.82%. So, it's not like Iowa underperformed on the offensive boards last time.

Iowa probably won't see the free throw line all that much. They are 11% below NCAA average in free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goals attempted), and Michigan State is 7% above average at not letting opponents get there. Last time, Michigan State held Iowa to a 0.21 free throw rate, which is way below Iowa's season average of 0.34. Iowa shot 11 free throws that game, with Basabe taking none of them and Cole taking two of them. I expect Basabe to have a better game, so I also expect Iowa's free throws to go up a little bit. I would say Iowa get's to the line about 16 times, with Basabe and Cole getting about 8 of those attempts.

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Basabe's Future

2011-03-01T06:46:00.001-06:00

Part 1 of this series is here

In the first post on Basabe, I looked at the kind of freshman year he is having. With this post, I want to look at what he could develop into. To do that, I want to compare his freshman year, with the senior year's of Greg Brunner and Reggie Evans. This should be able to give us an idea of where his development could go.

Let's start with playing time:

Unsurprisingly, Brunner and Evans got more playing time their senior campaigns, than Basabe has in his freshman season. Part of that has also been a little bit of foul trouble for Basabe too.

Next, shooting:

Basabe is a pretty damn good free throw shooter for a big man. Already, much better than Brunner and Evans.

Basabe, has also had a better year shooting than both Evans and Brunner. (Oddly enough, Brunner had a much worse shooting year as a senior, than he did as a freshman) His 57.07% effective FG% is good enough for eighth in the Big 10 right now. In his freshman year, Basabe is already a more efficient scorer, than Evans or Brunner. If he improves upon that number, he is going to be out of this world. But, even if he just stays consistent, he's going to be damn good.

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Iowa vs Illinois Round II Recap: 68-81 L

2011-02-27T10:19:00.000-06:00

Like so many other games this year, this game was okay, then the second half started.

Bullet Points!

Let's start with shooting. Iowa shot 19-42 (45.24%) from inside the three point arc, and 5-17 (29.41%) from outside it. That look's bad enough. What makes it worse, is when we break down the two point field goals a little bit further. Of those 42 two point field goal attempts, Iowa took 16 in the paint. They made 15 of them, or 93.75%. That means, Iowa went 4-26 (15.38%) on two point jump shots outside of the paint. That's terrible. Overall, Iowa shot a 44.9% effective FG%. About 4% lower than their season average.
Illinois shot much better than Iowa. They shot 25-38 (65.7%) from two point range, and 6-18 (33.3%) from three point range. They finished the day shooting a 60.7% effective FG%.
This game was not like the last time Iowa and Illinois played. In this game, Iowa didn't beat the Illini any category (except turnovers, and not in the good way). Last time, they beat Illinois in rebounding pretty handily. This time, it was close, but Illinois grabbed 50.2% of all rebounds, while Iowa grabbed 49.8%. On the defensive boards, Illinois came down with 61.1% of Iowa's misses, while Iowa came down with 60.7% of Illinois' misses. On the offensive glass, Illinois grabbed 39.3% of their own misses, while Iowa grabbed 38.9% of their own misses. Hey, at least Iowa kept it closer than they did shooting-wise.
Last time they faced off, Iowa won the turnover battle, by forcing Illinois into a turnover on about 25% of their possessions. This time Illinois cut that down to 19.4% of their possessions. Iowa, on the other hand, turned the ball over on 20.9% of their possessions.
Iowa ended 22.39% of their possessions with an assisted field goal. They finished the day with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.07. Illinois had an assist on 31.34% of their possessions yesterday. They finished with a 1.62 assist to turnover ratio.
Moving onto players. Melsahn Basabe was Iowa's best player last night. He was very efficient, scoring 17 points on 5-9 from the field (55.5% effective FG%) and 7-7 from the free throw line (1.38 points per scoring attempt). He was pretty quiet on the defensive glass, only grabbing 2 defensive rebounds (9.5% defensive rebounding rate). However, he was like a vacuum cleaner on the offensive glass, sucking up 5 Iowa missed shots (18.5% offensive rebounding rate). He continues to get his points, no matter how many times opposing teams try to double team him.

Iowa vs Illinois Round II Preview

2011-02-26T11:50:00.000-06:00

From the Previous Match up:
Iowa vs Illinois Round I Recap

Iowa doesn't have a good track record at Assembly Hall. This could be interesting.

Iowa Offense vs Illinois Defense

Let's start with shooting. Iowa dipped below NCAA average after their last game against Michigan. They are now shooting a 48.81% effective FG% on the year. Illinois, on the other hand, has been 7% above NCAA average at contesting shots, holding opponents to a 45.35% effective FG%. They've also been number one during Big 10 play in this category. However, Iowa did shoot a 53.9% effective FG% against the Illini back in January. So, you never know.

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Comparing Freshman Campaign's: Melsahn Basabe and Greg Brunner

2011-02-23T21:31:00.001-06:00

Note: This is Part 1 of a 2 Part Series

A few weeks ago I compared Melsahn Basabe's stats from conference play to Jared Sullinger's. This time I wanted to get an idea of just how good Basabe's freshman campaign has been. To do that, I decided to use Statsheet.com and use their side by side comparison tool to look at Melsahn Basabe's freshman year to date and Greg Brunner's.

Statsheet.com has Basabe listed at 6'7" and 225 lbs. They also have Brunner listed at 6'7" 245 lbs. I doubt that is Brunner's weight from his freshman year, but still, both players are a little undersized for being post players. However, Brunner was obviously thicker.

Now, when we look at stats, minutes played is obviously an important part. It just so happens that Basabe and Brunner both averaged 24.4 minutes per game their freshman years. That makes this comparison easier. So, let's begin.

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Iowa vs Michigan Round II Recap: 72-75 L OT

2011-02-20T12:25:00.000-06:00

That second half collapse was more painful in person.

Bullet Points!

This was the second overtime game I've been to at Carver. The last one was the game against Penn State where Jake Kelly went off, while puking in a trashcan on timeouts, two years ago. Needless to say, this one didn't end as well.
Iowa shot a 54.8% effective FG% in the first half, while Michigan shot 50%. Iowa outscored them by 8 in the first half. In the second half, Iowa shot a 44.6% effective FG%, and Michigan put up a 58.7%. Michigan outscored Iowa by 8 in the second half.
For the entire game, Michigan outshot Iowa, 53.8% to 46.6%. Iowa made 58.5% of their two point attempts, and a meager 11.8% from behind the three point line. Michigan made 59.3% of their two point shots, and 30% of their three point shots.
The Hawkeyes did win the rebounding battle, pulling down 58.6% of all rebounds, compared to Michigan's 41.4%. Iowa grabbed 41.2% of their own misses, while allowing Michigan to do the same only 24.1% of the time. On the defensive glass, Iowa came down with 75.9% of all of Michigan's misses, and Michigan came up with 58.8% of Iowa's misses. This the only thing Iowa dominated in for the whole game.
Iowa ended 21.7% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, but they also turned it over on 23.2% of them. That performance was good for a 0.94 assist to turnover ratio.
Michigan ended 20.3% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and only gave the ball up on 18.8%. That performance was good for a 1.08 assist to turnover ratio.
More on the second half collapse. Iowa had a 32-24 lead at the beginning of the second half. Around the 9:15 mark it was 42-42. That is a 18-10 run for Michigan. During that 18-10 run by Michigan, Tim Hardaway Jr. went 3-4 from three point range and 1-1 from two point range. He scored 11 points in that 10 minute stretch. That is 1 more point than Iowa scored in that entire 10 minute stretch. That was a bad bad 10 minutes.
As you can see from above, instead of this game being the Darius Morris show Part II (he did play good, though), this time it was the Tim Hardaway Jr. show. Hardaway scored a game high 30 points (20 of which came in the second half) on 9-14 shooting (4-7 from two point range and 5-7 from three point range). Thanks to all his three's, he had a ridiculous effective FG% of 82.1%. If you add him going 7-7 from the free throw line, you get a ridiculous 1.73 points per scoring attempt. He wasn't just hitting wide open shots, either. There were times where he just decided to pull up with an Iowa defender in his face, and drain the shot. It got to the point where me and the guy in the seat next to me, were surprised when Hardaway missed a shot. He looks like he's going to be pretty good for years to come.
Now, we can move on and talk about Morris. Morris was pretty quiet in the first half (the whole Michigan team was). But, in the second half, Michigan decided to start attacking Iowa's defense more. That was a problem for Iowa. Iowa had enough trouble guarding Hardaway in the second half, but when Morris started driving more, all hell broke loose. Cartwright couldn't keep him in front of him and neither could Marble. He also made Basabe (I believe that's who it was, because Fran yanked him for a good chunk of minutes) look bad on some pick and roll defense, that led to some easy baskets for Michigan. Morris put up 20 points and 9 assists, 10 and 5 of which, came in the second half.
Moving onto Iowa's players. Basabe was his efficient shooting self, as he put up 19 points on 8-10 shooting (80% effective FG%) and made all three of his free throw's (1.66 points per scoring attempt). He also grabbed 8 rebounds. 5 of which were defensive (22.8%) and 3 of which were offensive (11.6%). There were stretches where Basabe was unstoppable, making almost everything he put up, and grabbing some key offensive rebounds and converting them into second chance points. He also had a very nice alley-oop on a lob from Marble, on a play that was almost a turnover. However, as I said above, he did have some defensive trouble in the second half. So much so, that Fran took him out and put Brommer in for a while. That most certainly, did not help Iowa's offense. But, if you're going to blow that many defensive assignments, Fran is not going to have you on the court.
Staying on Fran for a moment. Holy hell, was he in full character yesterday. During the second half his face was terror threat level red. What was great about it, was that he would get in the players faces as they came off the court. They would sit down, and he would dig into them again. Then he would walk away as if he needed to calm down and collect himself, and then he would walk back over and start screaming once again. During a TV timeout, I believe it was, he walked away and came back at least 4 times. Fran can be more entertaining than the game sometimes.
Hightower refereed yesterday. Beilein got a technical. Fran didn't. Huh?
Gatens put up 13 points yesterday, but shot 4-11 from the field including 2-7 from behind the arc (the only three pointers Iowa made yesterday). However, it was his defense for the second game in a row that was pretty freaking bad (the team as a whole had some terrible defensive stands). I love Gatens, but he's too slow on defense.
Marble was pretty impressive yesterday, putting up 11 points on a 62.5% effective FG%. His mid range jumper was beautiful yesterday. He would just bring the ball up court, and pull the trigger. It looked very smooth. As a matter of fact, Marble made 60% of his two point shots outside the paint yesterday. By far the best on the team. He also made 100% of his shots inside the paint. He is looking more impressive as the year goes on. He has some real upside for the future.
Cole put up 14 points (1.69 points per scoring attempt), doing most of his damage from the free throw line. He made 8 of his 9 free throw attempts. That was good for a 2.25 free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goals attempted). This is something I need to give Cole credit for, his ability to get to the free throw line. He is number one on the team in free throw rate among players who actually play (Archie is number one, overall), getting to the line on 60% of his field goal attempts (0.60 free throw rate). Keep it up, Jarryd.
Cartwright couldn't make a basket yesterday to save his life. He went 3-13 from the field (23% effective FG%), scoring 8 points. While he did have 8 assists, he also had 5 turnovers. But, let's stay on his shooting. Cartwright shot 42.86% on his shots inside the paint yesterday. Only Brommer, who shot 33.3%, was worse. However, Cartwright decided to one-up that, by shooting 0% (0-6) on his two pointers outside of the paint. Add to that, the fact that he couldn't guard Darius Morris to save his life either, and it was a bad day.
Iowa averaged 1.04 points per possession, while Michigan averaged 1.09. Another game where Iowa scores above season average and loses.

Iowa vs Michigan Round II: Preview

2011-02-19T10:31:00.000-06:00

Going to be a short preview today, as I decided last minute to head to this game in person, and I still got to take a shower and everything. But, here is the preview from last time and the recap from last time. Both should do a good job of letting you know what to expect today. But, below I do have the updated ratings for both teams coming into this game. Enjoy!

Iowa Offense vs Michigan Defense

Michigan Offense vs Iowa Defense

Iowa vs Northwestern: Round II Recap: 70-73 L

2011-02-18T21:44:00.000-06:00

Iowa outshot and outrebounded Northwestern, and still lost.

Bullet points!

Iowa outshot Northwestern in effective FG% 56% to 55%. Iowa made 54.3% of their two point field goal attempts, 41.7% of their three point attempts, but they also hit only 41.7% of their free throw attempts. Northwestern shot 46.8% from inside the three point arc, 42.9% from behind it, and 53.8% from the free throw line.
In the first match up between these teams, Northwestern scored 46.7% of their points on three point field goals. This time they decided to up that, to 49.3%.
Iowa also won the rebounding battle 53.7% to 46.3%. On the offensive glass, Iowa pulled down 35.3% of all of their misses, compared to Northwestern's 27.8%. On the defensive glass, Iowa grabbed 72.2% of the Wildcat's misses. While, Northwestern grabbed just 64.7% of Iowa's misses.
Iowa did lose the turnover battle last night. They turned the ball over on 20.3% of their possessions. Northwestern, on the other hand, turned it over on just 12.5% of their possessions. Most of those Iowa turnovers, were directly forced by Northwestern (and Iowa stupidity), they weren't just travels or passes thrown out of bounds. 10 of Iowa's 12 turnovers were steals by Northwestern (15.6% of Iowa's possessions ended in a steal). Northwestern's defensive philosophy seemed to be "go for the steal, allow basket, repeat."
Iowa finished 25% of their possessions with an assisted field goal. Good for an assist to turnover ratio of 1.23. Northwestern ended 26.56% of their possessions with an assisted field goal. Good for a 2.12 assist to turnover ratio.
Northwestern also won in free throw rate. However, they beat Iowa in this regard ever so slightly, 0.22 to 0.21 free throws attempted per field goals attempted. Though, neither shot them very well as you can see in the first bullet point.
Speaking of not shooting free throws very well. Holy hell, Devon Archie. I've seen people airball free throws before, but they usually go straight and come up short. Archie's, from the TV camera angle anyway, looked like it went almost a foot to the right of the basket. Archie is 6-22 (27.3%) from the free throw line this year. After last night, I'm amazed he's made 6 free throws this year.
Staying with free throws. Matt Gatens missed 2 of his 3 free throws last night. Gatens is now 60-68 from the free throw line this year. His 88.2% free throw percentage, according to Statsheet.com, is number one in the Big 10. Gatens missing 2 free throws in a game almost seems impossible. I'm halfway tempted to go back and check how many times he has ever missed more than one free throw in a game.
If you had to pick a star player for Iowa last night, it would probably have to be Cartwright. He didn't have his best shooting performance, scoring 10 points on 5-12 shooting (41.6% effective FG% and 0.83 points per scoring attempt), but he did shoot better down the stretch. Overall, he was the catalyst for Iowa's offense last night. He finished the game with 9 assists and assisted 42.3% of all shots made by Iowa (and probably 99% of the shots made by Jarryd Cole), while he was on the court. He had 4 turnovers, but I can live with the 2.25 assist to turnover ratio. I'm really hoping he can improve on his scoring efficiency next year. If he can put those 10 points up on about 3 less shot attempts, he's going to be really damn dangerous.
Jarryd Cole had a big game against Northwestern. Much better than his first game against them. He scored 17 points on 8 shots (87.5% effective FG%) and 4 free throw attempts, which was good for 1.72 points per scoring attempt. He also grabbed 8 rebounds (4 offensive and 4 defensive), which was good for a 14.7% offensive rebounding rate and a 13.8% defensive rebounding rate.
McCabe was Iowa's offense in the first half. When Northwestern tried to put Iowa away early with a barrage of three pointers, McCabe decided to fire back. He only went 1-3 from three point range, but he went 4-5 from two point land, including a nice layup and foul on a clear flop from the Northwestern defender. McCabe scored all 11 of his points in the first half. He didn't do a whole lot in the second half, but he kept this game from getting out of hand like the previous game did. Kudos to the freshman, who has struggled in Big 10 play.
Onto Basabe. I predicted a double-double for him, and he probably would have had it too. Except, he only played 20 minutes due to foul trouble. Some of the fouls were plain crap, but I'm not going to get into the referees. Melsahn struggled to find his game early, but right around when he picked up his second foul, he put down a thunderous one-handed dunk (just before Fran pulled him, as he does with any player that has two fouls in the first half), and he seemed to get rolling after that. In the 20 minutes he played, he put up 13 points and 7 rebounds (4 offensive and 3 defensive). Translating that into rebounding rate, he grabbed 23.5% of all offensive and 16.6% of all defensive rebounds, while he was on the court. If he wouldn't have been in foul trouble, Iowa probably would have had their second conference road win of the year. Basabe probably would have had that double-double too.
Gatens returned to his normal form this game, after being in a shooting slump over the last three games. When I say returned to form, I mean he went 3-4 from behind the three point arc and 1-4 from inside it. Not to mention, he played some pretty poor defense at times. Welcome back, Matt.
Eric May shot a 20% effective FG% and averaged 0.40 points per scoring attempt. That also includes a laser beam layup that he threw off the backboard way too hard. Eric May is lost right now. Maybe we should put some "missing" signs on the back of milk cartons or something.
While Iowa shot better and made three more field goals than Northwestern did, the Wildcats made 12 three pointers. Those 36 points are the reason Northwestern averaged 1.14 points per possession, and Iowa averaged 1.09. This marks the second time that Iowa has faced Northwestern, shot much better than their season average, and still lost.

Iowa vs Northwestern: Round II Preview

2011-02-17T06:34:00.001-06:00

Life got in the way of me posting an Iowa vs Minnesota recap. Not that it really matters, as I can sum it up for you real quick: Iowa got spanked. Now, onto the Wildcats.

Iowa Offense vs Northwestern Defense

Last time Iowa played Northwestern, they shot about 11% above their season average effective FG% of 48.6%. That is actually pretty normal for Northwestern's defense this year, as Northwestern has let opponents shoot a 7% better than NCAA average effective FG% against them. Hopefully, that will mean good news for an Iowa team coming off a terrible shooting game.

Iowa is a pretty good offensive rebounding team, grabbing 6% more offensive rebounds than the average NCAA team. Northwestern has been better on the defensive boards, though. Coming down with 8% more defensive rebounds than average. In the previous match up, Iowa got embarassed on the glass all night. Basabe did his part, but Iowa will need bigger contributions from Cole and Brommer. Archie too, but I doubt he plays.

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Iowa vs Minnesota Men's Basketball Preview: Round II

2011-02-13T10:40:00.001-06:00

From Last Time
Iowa vs Minnesota Men's Basketball Preview
Iowa vs Minnesota Recap: 59-69 L

The last time Iowa and Minnesota faced off this year, Minnesota scored 39.1% of their points from free throws and blocked 20.3% of Iowa's shots. Iowa actually kept it somewhat close, and only lost on the road by 10, though. This time, these teams face off at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and Iowa has played much better in their house than they have on the road this year. So, let's look at the match up, shall we?

Iowa's Offense vs Minnesota's Defense

Iowa's 48.89% effective FG% rounds out to NCAA average. While, Minnesota is holding opponents to 46.79% shooting, which comes out to 4% above NCAA average. During their last match up, Iowa shot around 42%, but that was also because Minnesota blocked 12 shots. Unless you expect Minnesota to block that many shots again, then there is a good chance Iowa should shoot a better percentage from the field.

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Iowa vs Wisconsin Recap: 59-62 L, OT

2011-02-11T06:42:00.000-06:00

I'm a day later than usual because, believe it or not, I have a life.

Bullet points!

I was expecting Iowa to shoot terrible, but I wasn't expecting Wisconsin to shoot worse. The first half was terrible, Wisconsin went 6-33 from the field and 2-16 (!) from three point range. That total was good enough for a terrible 21.2% effective FG%, and a miserable 0.63 points per possession. And somehow, Iowa was only up by 5 at halftime.
For the entire game, Iowa shot 25-60 from the field. That includes, 24-53 from two point range (45.2%),1-7 from three point range (42.5% effective FG%), and 8-9 from the free throw line (88.9%). They also averaged 0.94 points per possession.
For the entire game, Wisconsin went 24-68 shooting. That includes, 16-39 from insided the arc (41%), 8-29 from beyond the arc (41.2% effective FG%), and 6-7 from the charity stripe (85.7%). Wisconsin finished the game averaging 0.98 points per possession.
Wisconsin took 8 more shots than Iowa in this game. That is because in the first half, Iowa allowed the Badgers to grab 12 offensive rebounds. I bring that up to point this out; Wisconsin had 0 second chance points in the first half, according to Iowa's .PDF box score. Wisconsin shot so bad in the first half, that on 12 second chance opportunities, they had no points to show for them (they were still only down by 5 at halftime, though).
Why didn't Fran call a timeout at the end of overtime? I'm fine with not using it at the end of regulation. The game was tied then, and a two point shot wins it. Cartwright is pretty much the only guy on the team who can create his own shot, and he got his chance and missed. In overtime though, Iowa needed a three to tie. Cartwright is not a good three point shooter. He is shooting 26% on the year. He's not the guy who should be taking a three, much less a contested one, in that position. Call a timeout, and set up a play for Gatens, even May is a better long range shooter, or hell, put Stoermer on the court and give Wisconsin another option to guard. I would much rather see Gatens take a contested three with the game on the line, than Cartwright.
Just like in the Michigan State game, Iowa had four starters in double-figures this game. They also saw their two starting post players, put up double-doubles. This was Basabe's sixth double-double this year. The kid is a monster.
Basabe was second on the team in scoring, but he played the best, overall. He scored 13 points on 6-11 shooting and making his only free throw attempt. Like always, Basabe was very efficient at scoring. He finished with a 54.5% effective FG% and averaged 1.13 points per scoring attempt. He also grabbed 11 rebounds, including 4 offensive (13.5% offensive rebounding rate) and 7 defensive (18.9% defensive rebounding rate).
Jarryd Cole had a nice game. He put up 10 points on 4-7 shooting and went 2-2 from the line. Cole shot a very efficient 57.1% effective FG% and averaged 1.26 points per scoring attempt. He also came down with 12 rebounds (3 offensive and 9 defensive). For the game, Cole grabbed 9.6% of all offensive and 23% of all defensive rebounds available while he was in the game. He was the team's best defensive rebounder, and was the second best offensive rebounder, behind Basabe.
Cartwright led the Hawkeyes in scoring, with 14 points. But, he didn't have his best shooting night. Wisconsin is a good defensive team, and they held Cartwright to 5-15 from the field and 1-2 from behind the arc. He did make all three of his free throws, though. But, he had a rather inefficient night scoring, as he put up a 36.6% effective FG% and averaged 0.85 points per scoring attempt. He also ended his streak of at least 8 assists in his last four games. He finished with 4 assists, and a 21.8% assist rate (percentage of field goals assisted while on the court), which is about 16% less than his season average.
Staying on Cartwright, I'm not saying he had a terrible game. He was just offensively inefficient. However, he still had moments where he looked damn good. One moment comes to mind, where late in the game, Cartwright pushed the ball up court and took it straight to the lane, hitting the little tear drop floater. The Badgers wanted to slow this game down, but on this possession Cartwright set the pace of play to Iowa's speed. It was good to see him be aggressive and not get bogged down in Wisconsin's slower pace of play.
Gatens was the fourth starter in double-digits, scoring 10 points on 4-12 shooting, including 0-4 from downtown. He did make both of his free throw attempts. However, Gatens was not himself this game, as he finished with a very inefficient 33.3% effective FG% (about 16% below his season average) and was second worst on the team averaging 0.77 points per scoring attempt (May was the worst averaging 0.33). It was good to see that with an off shooting night from Gatens and Cartwright, that Iowa could still weather the storm against a good team like Wisconsin.
John Leuer had 19 points and 15 rebounds. I just want to point out that he grabbed 32.7% of all defensive rebounds available while he was on the court. That's insane.
Overall, Iowa lost the rebounding battle 46.1% to Wisconsin's 53.9%. Wisconsin won on the offensive boards, grabbing 35.6% of all offensive rebounds available to Iowa's 27.8%. They also won on the defensive glass, 72.2% to 64.4%.
Losing the rebounding battle is not surprising anymore, considering how Iowa hasn't won the rebounding battle very much in Big 10 play. To show this, I provide visual evidence below. Look how the black line goes from being under the yellow line, to above it once Big 10 play starts.

Iowa ended 22.2% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and 15.9% of their possessions with a turnover. Good for a 1.4 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
Wisconsin ended 30.2% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and 12.7% with a turnover. Good for a 2.38 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.

A Quick Comparison

2011-02-09T06:42:00.000-06:00

Player A: 11 Games, 35.64 Minutes Per Game, 0.52 Points Per Minute, 54.80% Effective FG%, 0.65 Free Throw Rate, 65.50% Free Throw%, 11.70% Offensive Rebounding%, 26.50% Defensive Rebounding%, 1.70% Block%, 1.40 Steal%, 11.50% Assist%, and 11.30% Turnover%.

Player B: 11 Games, 25.36 Minutes Per Game, 0.52 Points Per Minute, 57.30% Effective FG%, 0.57 Free Throw Rate, 82.40% Free Throw%, 15.40% Offensive Rebounding%, 22.70% Defensive Rebounding%, 6.00% Block%, 1.00 Steal%, 3.20 Assist%, and 21.10% Turnover%.

Pretty similar players, huh? What if I told you, that Player A, was a McDonald's All-American and was a top 5 recruit coming out of high school? What if I also told you, that Player B, was none of those things. That Player B was only offered a scholarship by smaller school's out East. Would you believe it? Can you guess who these two mystery players are?

If you guessed Player A was the Big 10's top freshman this year, Jared Sullinger, then you guessed correct. Now, can you tell me who Player B is? Since this is a Hawkeye blog, that should give you an idea. It's none other than the Hawkeyes own, and Fran McCaffery's prized recruit, Melsahn Basabe.

Those stats above are what these two players have accumulated in conference play so far. I was shocked to find that they were so similar.

As you can see, since conference play has kicked off, Basabe has put the ball in the basket at the same rate (0.52 points per minute) as Sullinger. He has also shot the ball better, 57.30% effective FG% to 54.80%. Sullinger gets to the free throw line more often, as his free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempts) is 0.65 compared to Basabe's 0.57. However, when Basabe has gotten to the line he has made 82.40% of his free throw's in Big 10 play, compared to Sullinger's 65.50%. Sullinger has about a 4% edge in defensive rebounding, while Basabe has about a 4% edge in offensive rebounding. Basabe has also blocked about 4.5% more shots than Sullinger has.

Now, I'm not saying that Basabe is better, or that he is a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Obviously, Sullinger is the better player. Basabe turns the ball over about 10% more often than Sullinger, while dishing out about 8% fewer assists. Plus, Sullinger's numbers are very impressive, when you consider he plays about 10 minutes more per game than Basabe on average.

This is only an 11 game sample, so there could be a lot of random chance in here. But, it is 11 games against very good competition, and since they are in the same conference, it is against the same competition. What this does though, is give you an idea of just how good Basabe has been over the past month and some change. I think what this also shows, is that if Iowa fans aren't already excited about Melasahn Basabe, they should get excited. Because he looks like the real deal.

Iowa vs Wisconsin Men's Basketball Preview

2011-02-08T23:14:00.000-06:00

No intro. Need sleep.

Iowa's Offense vs Wisconsin's Defense

Right off the bat, this doesn't look real good for Iowa. The Badgers are a good defensive team. Wisconsin has held opponents to a 45.62% effective FG% on the year (47.8% for Big 10 opponents), which is good enough fro 7% above NCAA average. Iowa isn't a good shooting team, coming in right at NCAA average and tenth in the Big 10, with a 49.2% effective FG%. Expect Iowa to struggle from the field.

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Offensive-Minded Stats from January

2011-02-06T12:50:00.000-06:00

I like keeping track of monthly progress for Iowa's players because it lets me know the ups and downs of the season, that the season average doesn't provide. Monthly averages are undoubtedly small sample sizes. Teams play seven or eight games in a month, and there is a lot of room for random variation in there. However, I think it is still fun to look at, and see if we can see who was on a hot streak and who was not. So, let's take a look.

First, minutes per game:

Obviously, May was injured in January, so it's not a surprise that his playing time took a little dip. As a result, Marble's playing time went up a bit. For the third month in a row, McCabe's playing time has decreased, that might have something to do with a 33.78% effective FG% in January. Finally, looking at the post players, Basabe, Archie, and Brommer all saw their playing time go up in January, as Cole's decreased. Cole didn't have the greatest of January's either.

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Iowa vs Indiana: Round II Recap: 64-63 W

2011-02-06T09:09:00.000-06:00

I'm not sure which game I enjoyed more. This game vs Indiana or the Michigan State massacre. Michigan State is a great program with a legendary head coach. So, that made it even more awesome that Iowa slaughtered them. Indiana is a rebuilding program, like Iowa, and this was a competitive game going back and forth the whole time. I haven't had a feeling like this, where Iowa pulled out a big conference win in... I don't know how long. But, either way, these last two games have been nothing short of spectacular, considering the expectations of this Iowa team coming into the season. And, by the way, Iowa picked up their first conference road win yesterday.

Bullet Points!

I said in the preview to this game, that because Indiana has a fouling problem, Basabe and Cartwright should live at the line today. Well, Basabe had a free throw rate of 0.90 (!), getting to the charity stripe 9 times, making 8 of them (88.89%). Cartwright was second on the team with 5 free throws attempted, making four of them (80%). Which, was good for a free throw rate of 0.45. Both players took advantage of Indiana's hacktastic ways, and even more important, both players made it count when they got to the free throw line.

Iowa vs Indiana Men's Baskeball Preview: Round II

2011-02-05T11:08:00.000-06:00

Iowa vs Indiana Preview: Round I

Iowa vs Indiana Recap: Round I

Last time this game was played, I didn't get to watch most of it because the NFC Championship game was on. But, when I did see catch the game during commercials, Iowa was dominating. That was at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, though. While, Iowa is 2-3 in home conference games this year. They are 0-5 on the road. Indiana has a similar home/road split. They are 3-2 at home, and 0-5 on the road in Big 10 play. Not to mention, in their last three games they have beaten Illinois and Minnesota (two teams that beat Iowa), and they took Sparty (a team who Iowa crushed) to overtime and only lost by one point. Did I mention that they are doing this while missing star players? When Iowa beat them they were missing Maurice Creek and Verdell Jones III. This time they will have Jones III back, but he isn't 100%, and they will be missing Christian Watford, who just happened to put up 30 points on Iowa last time out. So, who knows what to expect?

Iowa Offense vs Indiana Defense

The thing to keep an eye on, is the free throw rate. Indiana has a ridiculously hard time not fouling guys. Last time these teams played, Indiana put the Hawkeyes on the line 39 times (a 0.75 free throw rate!). Almost 30% of Iowa's points that game came from uncontested shots at the free throw line. When you give a team that many free opportunities. You're probably not going to win all that much.

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Comparing Iowa's Non-Conference Stats to Big 10 Stats

2011-02-05T09:13:00.000-06:00

Iowa went 7-5 in non-conference play this year. But, since the Big 10 schedule kicked off, wins have been few and far between for the Hawkeyes. Going just 2-8 in conference play so far. So, what has been the difference? Let's find out.
Shooting:

As you can see, Iowa's shooting hasn't really changed in Big 10 play. Instead, it's been their opponents shooting that has been much better since conference play started. Non-conference opponents shot a combined 44.69% effective FG%, while Big 10 opponents have shot 56.64%. Let's break the shooting down a little bit.

Two point and three point field goal percentage:

We already know Iowa is shooting pretty much the same between both halves of their schedule (even though they are shooting a little better from three point range in Big 10 play). Their opponents, though, have shot about 10% better a piece on their two point field goal attempts and their three point field goal attempts. It's not a surprise that these numbers have gone up, but a 10% increase is a lot. You're not going to win a lot of games when you get outshot by your opponents like Iowa has in conference play.

Offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency:

Offensive and defensive efficiency are simply just points per possession multiplied 100, to show what a team would score on offense or give up on defense in 100 possessions (it's like points per game, but adjusted for pace of play). Iowa is scoring slightly less in conference play, dropping by 1 point per 100 possessions. But, that hasn't really been the problem.

Seeing that Iowa has had trouble stopping Big 10 opponents from shooting really well, it shouldn't be a surprise that defensive efficiency is where Iowa see's the most trouble. In non-conference play they only allowed 87.56 points per 100 possessions. In conference play, however, they have allowed 113.26 points per 100 possessions. Don't expect these numbers to change all that much though. The Big 10, obviously, has a lot of firepower this year.

Rebounding:

Iowa was a dominant rebounding team during the non-conference portion of their schedule. Now that they are in Big 10 play, not so much. They went from grabbing 72.64% of all defensive rebounds available in non-conference play to 61.76% in Big 10 play. That is a huge drop. Offensive rebounding rate has dropped too, but not anywhere near as much as defensive rebounding rate. The Hawkeyes pulled down 36.43% of all offensive rebounds available against non-conference opponents, but only 33.02% in conference play. We should expect a small drop in rebounding since Iowa is playing harder competition now, but the defensive rebounding is just ridiculous. That needs to be fixed.

Assists and Turnovers:

Finally, let's look at assists and turnovers. Just like the rest of the categories above, the offense has been basically the same. They have seen a 1% increase in their assist rate (percentage of possessions ending with an assisted field goal), but nothing real huge. Once again, the defense has been the difference.

To go right along with the huge increase in shooting, Big 10 opponents have seen a much larger percentage of their possessions end with an assisted field goal than non-conference opponents did. Iowa is also forcing a turnover on 22.10% of Big 10 opponents possessions compared to 23.26% against non-conference opponents. That's not a huge difference, but when you are allowing 10% more assists, the last thing you want to do is force less turnovers.

To summarize, Iowa's offense has actually been pretty consistent since transitioning into playing against Big 10 defenses. However, the same cannot be said for the defense guarding Big 10 offenses. Big 10 teams are shooting a ridiculous effective FG% against Iowa, which has also led to a huge uptick in the number of assists allowed by the Hawkeyes. The amount of turnovers Iowa has forced is also slightly down in conference play, but Iowa is still very good at making other teams cough the ball up.

The other main problem besides opponents shooting, has been rebounding. Specifically, defensive rebounding. Since Big 10 play has started, Iowa has been giving opponents way too many second chances opportunities. The rate at which Iowa was grabbing offensive rebounds has also dropped, but to a much lesser degree than the defensive rebounds have. Let's hope these problems get smaller as the season goes on. This is a young team, and it wouldn't be reasonable to expect them to fix them overnight. Hopefully, though, we can see progress as the season winds to an end. Progress gives us something to look forward to for next year.

Iowa vs Michigan State Recap: 72-52 W

2011-02-03T08:00:00.000-06:00

That game was what every Hawkeye fan needed. Sure, Michigan State has major problems right now, and Iowa didn't go and knock off the best team in the Big 10. But, keep in mind that this Michigan State team still has a lot of talent on it, and Iowa outplayed them in pretty much ever aspect of that basketball game last night. So, it's still a great win for the Hawkeyes, even if we are still alone in last place (damn you Indiana).

Bullet Points!

WOOOOOOO!!!!!
I've been very repetitive lately, saying that Iowa has yet to get a good game out of their four best offensive players, or even three out of the four. Well, Gatens was feeling it last night, Cartwright put together another great game, and May had some big plays that got Carver on its collective feet. Basabe struggled, but Cole more than made up for his troubles last night. Overall, 4 Iowa starters were in double digit points.
Iowa's starters scored 59 points, going 24-40 from the field, 2-5 from three point range (62.5% effective FG%), and 9-11 from the free throw line (81.82%).
Michigan State's starters scored 34 points on 12-41 shooting, including 4-17 from the three point line (34.15% effective FG%), and 6-6 from the free throw line (thanks to Kalin Lucas). I'm not surprised there was this much disparity between the teams in shooting, I'm just pleasantly surprised that it wasn't Iowa, who couldn't buy a basket all game.
For the entire game, Iowa made 62.7% of their two point field goal attempts (only the second time they've been over 60% in Big 10 play this year), but only 33.3% of their three point attempts. Considering that 75% of the Hawkeyes points came from inside the three point line, they still finished with a great effective FG% of 60.58% (their second highest shooting in Big 10 play this year).
Over the entire 40 minutes of this game, Michigan State made 39.4% of their two point shots taken, and an even worse 22.2% of their three pointers attempted. These two averages combined for a 37.5% effective FG%, which is easily the lowest by any Big 10 opponent against Iowa this season. Actually, it is only the third time Iowa has held a conference opponent to less than 50% this year.
Bryce Cartwright has put together back to back great games. This really has to make the Iowa fanbase excited to see how much he can improve next year. He's no Darius Morris, but he did his best impression last night, as he grabbed his first Career double-double as a member of the Iowa team (and in his collegiate career). He scored 12 points on 6-12 shooting (50% effective FG%), which is a very efficient shooting night for Cartwright. He also had another game where he went insane dishing out assists. He tallied 10 assists in 37 minutes of play, good for his second best assist per minute rate of the season, at 0.27 (he had 0.30 assists per minute vs Michigan last Sunday). Cartwright did have four turnovers, but still came up with a 2.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio last night. Pretty good.
Staying on Cartwright and his assists, the man has been impressive. In an earlier post, I wrote he wasn't improving as the year had gone on. Well, he hasn't scoring wise, but he is getting better and better at finding his teammates over the course of the season. If you look at his assist rate, he is ranked number 21 in the country and number 3 in the Big 10, with a 36.9% assist rate. In Big 10 play he is averaging 0.20 assists per minute compared to the 0.16 assists per minute he averaged in non-conference play. What about if you check out month to month? Yep. He's getting better. Have a look:

Gatens had a great game. He had 14 points on 6-11 shooting, including 2-3 from three point range (good for a 63.6% effective FG%). He also added 5 more points from the charity srtipe, bringing his total on the night to a team high, 19 points. Gatens still struggled to shoot a better percentage from two point range (50%) than he did from three point range (66.7%), but that's the player he is, and he is still Iowa's best shooter. He also had 4 steals and a dunk! Fastbreak points bitches!
Welcome back Eric May! Please feel free to stay a while too. May was very efficient, scoring 11 points on 4-5 shooting (0 three point attempts) and 3-4 from the free throw line. Even better, he was attacking the basket when he shot, and he was getting out in transition when Michigan State turned the ball over. May had one dunk foiled when was run down from behind by a Michigan State player, but a couple minutes later he was redeemed. May caught an outlet pass, outrunning another Spartan player, flushing the ball down with one hand. That dunk literally got everybody in Carver (and even fans on Twitter) out of their seat.
I love when Eric May dunks. Eric May dunks bring us all together. I think Eric May's dunks could bring peace to the Middle East. Let's get on that Eric.
Jarryd Cole also decided to come to play last night, as he scored 13 points (6-6 shooting too!) and grabbed 9 rebounds (all defensive). As if this game wasn't already amazing enough, Iowa almost had two players grab double-double's against Sparty. Cole grabbed 31% of all defensive rebounds available while on the court, which is about 12% better than his season average. However, his outstanding defensive rebounding was still second on the team.That's how good things were for Iowa last night.
Cole's defensive rebounding rate was second best on the team to who else? Devon Archie of course. All the man does is crash the boards. He pulled down 12.4% of all offensive and 35.7% of all defensive rebounds while on the court. Good to see him get some playing time. Too bad it meant that Basabe and Cole were in foul trouble.
Brommer was apparently sick as a dog, and throwing up at halftime. For being sick, 6 points and 2 offensive rebounds in 14 minutes of play is still pretty damn good. He also, only picked up 1 foul in those 14 minutes. Progress!
Looking at rebounds, Iowa won the overall battle ever so slightly, 50.79% to 49.21%. However, Michigan State gave the Hawkeyes trouble on the offensive boards, pulling down 40% of their missed shots. Iowa, on the other hand only grabbed 34.78% of their missed shots. On the defensive boards, Michigan State also came away with more, beating Iowa 65.22% to 60%. This isn't real disappointing though, because Michigan State has some legit rebounders. So, this was expected.
Iowa finished 30.65% (!) of their possessions with an assisted field goal (the only other time they were over 30% in this category this year, was against the mighty SIU Edwardsville Cougars), while also ending 19.4% of their possessions with a turnover. That's good for an assist to turnover ratio of 1.58 to 1.
Michigan State ended 17.74% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and ended 27.4% of their possessions with a turnover. The Spartans finished with a 0.65 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
Overall, Iowa averaged 1.16 points per possession. Michigan State, meanwhile, averaged 0.84 points per possession. That is the lowest defensive points per possession allowed by Iowa in Big 10 play this year, and only the second time they have held a conference opponent under 1 (Indiana averaged 0.99 points per possession).
WOOOOOOOOO!!!

Iowa vs Michigan State Men's Basketball Preview

2011-02-02T06:00:00.015-06:00

Everybody knows something is going on up at Michigan State. They've already lost four conference games to Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, and in-state rival Michigan. Not to mention, they just went into overtime with an Indiana team missing some key players. Finally, another blow for them, was Junior guard Korie Lucious recently being dismissed from the team. Will this one be the game where Iowa finally pulls off a Big 10 upset? Or will this be another blowout where Iowa is run out of the gym? Let's try to figure that out.

Iowa Offense vs Michigan State Defense

Let's start with shooting. Iowa is the worst shooting team in the Big 10, overall (10th place if you look at conference games only), shooting a 48.66% effective FG%. Michigan State has only been 2% above NCAA average at contesting opponents shots this year, allowing opponents to shoot 48%. In conference play though, the Spartans have allowed Big 10 opponents to shoot a 51.9% effective FG%. Hopefully that means good news for Iowa.

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Iowa vs Michigan Recap: 73-87 L

2011-01-31T06:18:00.001-06:00

This game was going okay. Then they played the second half.

Bullet points!

58.8%. That is the effective FG% that Iowa's Big 10 opponents have averaged against them in 9 conference games this year, after Michigan shot a 71.4% yesterday (86.54% in the second half!). Michigan's average on the year coming into yesterday's game was 51%. They basically shot 20% better than their season average against Iowa.
Iowa also shot above their season average yesterday. Their 53.5% effective FG% was about 5% better than their 48.42% average on the season. Too bad that wasn't even close to enough.
Michigan likes to shoot three pointers. This game was no different. They took 56 shots, and exactly half of them were three's. Out of those 28 three's, the Wolverines made exactly half of those. Their 50% 3pt FG% was about 16% higher than their season average. Their 67.8% 2pt FG% against Iowa, was also about 16% higher than their season average.
I almost called the a Basabe double-double in the preview for this game. Michigan's best post defender is Horford, and he doesn't play as much as Morgan and Smotrycz. Neither of which, had a chance against Basabe. Basabe had 25 points on 9-11 shooting (81.8% effective FG%) and on 7-8 from the free throw line. He also grabbed 8 rebounds (4 offensive and 4 defensive). That was good for 15.6% of all offensive and 21.7% of all defensive rebounds available while he was in the game. If only Iowa had like 5 more Basabe's.
Cartwright had a nice game today. He actually had an effective FG% above 50%, shooting 55% (yay!). He scored 11 points on 5-10 shooting with 1-2 from three point range. He also had 9 assists (screw you Darius Morris) and 0 (!) turnovers. Michigan is not a good defensive team, so this is mostly a result of Michigan being bad defensively, and not Cartwright becoming amazing overnight. Still good to see, though.
Gatens had a meh kind of game. He had 11 points on 4-9 shooting and went 1-2 from behind the arc (50% effective FG%). That is pretty much all he did. Well, besides play some interesting defense. But, whatever.
May continues to struggle. This really needs to be fixed in the final month of the season.
I'll say it again without parenthesis this time. Screw you Darius Morris. How did he get stuck playing on a half-court offensive team like Michigan? I mean, this game was literally the "Darius Morris Show". He did his best Jason Kidd impression by putting together a triple-double. He was the only Michigan player that didn't just sit behind the three point line all day. He actually drove to the basket and scored 12 points and also found guys like Morgan and Horford down low for big dunks. He found his teammates 11 times total, and pulled down 10 rebounds. Yeah. He's a point guard.
Iowa lost the overall rebounding battle, as Michigan grabbed 52.73% of all rebounds compared to Iowa's 47.27%. Iowa did grab 69.57% of all defensive rebounds available compared to Michigan's 68.75%, and 31.25% of all offensive rebounds compared to 30.43%. It should also be pointed out that Michigan is a horrible offensive rebounding team, and that their 30.43% today was about 10% above their season average. Oh, how I miss the days of Iowa being good at rebounding.
Iowa ended 23.44% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and only 15.6% of their possessions with a turnover. That was good for a 1.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. This is good.
Michigan ended 39.29% (!) of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and 17.2% of their possessions with a turnover. That was good for an assist to turnover ratio of 2 to 1. This is not good.
Iowa averaged 1.14 points per possession. Michigan averaged 1.36 points per possession. Iowa is now averaging 0.99 points per possession in Big 10 play, while allowing 1.16 points per possession. Also, not good.

Looking at Iowa Compared to the Average Big 10 Team

2011-01-30T11:37:00.001-06:00

When this season began, everyone was proclaiming the Big 10 as one of the toughest conferences in the nation. This was bad news for an Iowa team trying to rebuild. Iowa went 7-5 in non-conference play, but has gone just 1-7 in Big 10 play. We all knew that Iowa's stats from non-conference play wouldn't necessarily translate to Big 10 play. So, now that the Hawkeyes have 8 conference games under their belt, I wanted to look at why Iowa has looked so much worse. First, though, let's see how good the Big 10 actually is.

The Average Big 10 Offense vs The Average NCAA Offense

What you see above is the average of all 11 Big 10 teams plotted against the average of every NCAA Division I team. As you can see, the Big 10 is above average in everything except for getting to the free throw line. So, the average offense in the Big 10 is better than the average NCAA offense. Bad news for Iowa.

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Iowa vs Michigan Men's Basketball Preview

2011-01-30T09:15:00.000-06:00

Iowa is on the road for the second game in a row, taking on another slower paced offense in Michigan. Michigan is fresh off a big victory against Michigan State (what has happened to them?), but is only 2-6 in conference play. Michigan is a winnable game for the Hawkeyes, but they need to play much better than they have in other conference road games this year.

Iowa Offense vs Michigan Defense

Iowa should be able to shoot pretty well against Michigan, as they have been slightly below average at contesting opponents shots. Against Northwestern Iowa shot lights out, but against Penn State they were terrible. Both of those teams were below average in opponent shooting, but one game is a small sample size, so anything could happen.

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Visualizing the Big 10's Top 5 Quarterbacks from 2010

2011-01-29T12:04:00.000-06:00

I've been trying to figure out how to do this for a while now. I've been able to use averages to create ratings, and show a team's strengths and weaknesses on a chart. However, I have yet to do it for players. I'm still working on other skill players because I'm having trouble coming up with what stats to rate them on. But, quarterbacks were easy. So here they are.

Methodology

For quarterbacks (with at least 80 pass attempts in 2010), I rated them on their propensity to throw interceptions (interceptions per pass attempt) and touchdowns (touchdown per pass attempt). I also rated them on how good they were at picking up chunks of yards through the air (yards per pass attempt). The final category I looked at, was completion percentage, to see how often they were completing their passes. I didn't include quarterback rating on the charts, because it essentially measures these four things by itself. I didn't want any categories that captured the same thing twice.

The ratings are the same as they always are. Only, this time the average is the Big 10 average, and not NCAA average (like my basketball ratings). 100= Big 10 average, 110= 10% better than Big 10 average, and 90= 10% below Big 10 average. Let's begin!

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Iowa vs Penn State Recap: 51-65 L

2011-01-27T06:43:00.000-06:00

Well, that sucked.

Bullet points!

Iowa got beat in pretty much every facet of the game by Penn State. The only one of the Four Factors that Iowa won was the turnover battle. They turned the ball over on 19.3% of their possessions, while forcing Penn State into a turnover on 24.56% of their possessions.
Unfortunately turnovers wasn't enough to give Iowa the win, as they also got killed in shooting. Penn State shot a 58.5% effective FG%, which is 10% higher than their season average. Iowa, on the other hand, shot a 44.1% effective FG%, which is 4% lower than their season average. It's all the more disappointing because Penn State's opponents had been shooting well on them all season. So, it's not like Penn State was known for their defense.
Let's stay on shooting. Iowa shot a better percentage from downtown, making 38.9% of their three pointers compared to Penn State's 31.3%. However, the problem came once Iowa got inside the three point line. They only made 36.3% of their two point field goals (!), compared to Penn State's 64.5%. Ummm, yeah. I think that speaks for itself.
It's not like Iowa was bad all game. For most of the first half they had the lead over Penn State. They were even up by double digits at one point. Of course, the lead dwindled and the Nittany Lions took the lead right before halftime. A real momentum shift, I felt, took place when the refs called that charge on McCabe. The defender was all the way under the basket, and it should have been a blocking foul. Of course, Fran also disagreed with the referee, and got himself another technical to add to his mantle this year. But, that took at least two points off the board for Iowa, and gave Penn State two as they made their technical free throws. I'm not saying that is where Iowa lost the game, just that it seemed to be a momentum changer in the first half.
Once again in Big 10 play, Iowa got throttled on the boards. I've already mentioned how rebounding has taken a turn for the worse during Big 10 play for Iowa, and tonight was no different. Penn State grabbed 56.5% of all rebounds to Iowa's 43.5%. On the offensive glass, the Nittany Lions outrebounded Iowa 42.9% to 30%. Defensively, they grabbed 70% to Iowa's 57.1%. I mean, Iowa only grabbed 12 defensive rebounds out of Penn State's 22 misses all night. Let me repeat that. 12 defensive rebounds. All night. That's it. That sucks.
Gatens reached double digits tonight, scoring 10 on 4-10 shooting (50% effective FG%). He went 2-5 from two point range and 2-5 from three point range. That is what I find the most interesting because it shows his Big 10 performance in a nut shell. Three pointers have been the easier shot for Gatens since Big 10 play kicked off. In eight conference games, Gatens has shot 44% from three point range and 38.10% from two point range. One of those things is good, and one of those things is not. In November he shot 35% from two point range, but he was coming off a hand injury. In December, he was hot, shooting 70% from inside the arc. So, he's gone from ridiculously cold to ridiculously hot to ridiculously cold again. Let's hope for Gatens to regress to his mean in January.
Cole was the leading scorer for the Hawkeyes last night. He put up 11 on 4 of 7 shooting (57.1% effective FG%) and by hitting three of four free throws. Cole had a better defensive rebounding game, grabbing 17.8% of all defensive rebounds while he was on the court. However, he didn't do a whole lot on the offensive rebounding side, grabbing only 4.1%. Still had a pretty good game though.
Cartwright was interesting last night. On the one hand, he had 8 assists and only 3 turnovers. On the other hand, he had 9 points on 4-13 shooting (34.6% effective FG%). Early in the game he took some questionable shots, but they were falling so you couldn't really question him. Late in the game those shots were no longer falling. There really isn't much to say about it anymore, it would be great if he could get 9 points on about half as many shots but, Cartwright is what he is.
On the Penn State side, Talor Battle and Jeff Brooks put up more points, together, than every player on Iowa did. Battle had 23 points on 8-13 shooting (65.3% effective FG%), while Brooks had 22 on 9-17 shooting. His 64.7% effective FG% looks better than his 9-17 shooting, and that's because of 4 of his 9 made baskets were three pointers.
Penn State's Andrew Jones also put in 9 points. But, his shooting wasn't the important part. Jones was Iowa's worst nightmare on the glass, as he came up just one point shy of a double double. He grabbed 4 offensive rebounds (21.7%) and 6 defensive rebounds (22.8%). He's the main reason Iowa lost the rebounding battle.
Overall, Iowa ended 22.8% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, finishing with a 1.18 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. Penn State ended 24.56% of their possessions with an assist, which gave them an assist to turnover ratio of 1.
Iowa's miserable shooting led to an average of 0.90 points per possession. Meanwhile, Penn State averaged 1.14 points per possession.
Ugh.

Iowa vs Penn State Men's Basketball Preview

2011-01-26T06:43:00.001-06:00

WOOOO!!! We're no longer alone in last place!!! Sorry, haven't quite gotten that out of my system yet. We are now on our third day removed from Iowa's first Big 10 win of the season over a short-handed Indiana squad. Now, Iowa heads out to Happy Valley tonight to take on the Nittany Lions of Penn State. Interestingly enough, Penn State doesn't look to be as bad as everyone thought they would be this year, getting two big upsets at home against Illinois and Michigan State. Even their last two Big 10 road losses to Ohio State and Purdue were close, losing by three points and one point, respectively. So, does Iowa stand a chance? Let's find out.

Iowa Offense vs Penn State Defense

As any Hawkeye fan who has followed all season knows, Iowa is not a real great shooting team. Their 48.62% effective FG% comes out to 1% below NCAA average, which is actually only good enough for last place in the Big 10. Thankfully for Iowa, Penn State has let opponents shoot 5% better than NCAA average against them. Last time Iowa played a Big 10 team that was below average in shooting defense (Northwestern), they shot a 59% effective FG%. So, there's a chance!

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Iowa vs Indiana Recap: 91-77 W

2011-01-23T20:37:00.001-06:00

I only caught parts of this game since I was busy watching the Packers make the Super Bowl. Nonetheless, it's Iowa's first Big 10 win of the season and the Packers are going to the Super Bowl! Great Day!

Bullet Points!

Not only was Indiana missing Maurice Creek, but they were missing their second leading scorer in Verdell Jones III. That helps to somewhat explain why they shot as terrible as they did today. Indiana was shooting a 54% effective FG% in Big 10 play, but they shot a 42.86% today. That is easily the best that Iowa has held a Big 10 opponent to so far this year. Indiana was clearly off today.
Speaking of shooting, my word, what the hell got into Iowa today? Their 61.54% effective FG% was the second best this season, next to the SIU Edwardsville game, and only the third time they've eclipsed the 54% mark this year.
I said in the preview that Indiana had a fouling problem, and if I was Iowa I would just dump the ball down low to Basabe. I figured that if he didn't score, he would at least get to the free throw line. Well, he scored 20 points on 7-10 shooting (70% effective FG%), and he also made it to the free throw line 8 times, sinking 6. Not to mention that he was, once again, Iowa's best rebounder. He came away with 24.8% of all defensive and 9.8% of all offensive rebounds.
Gatens did not have a great shooting game today, going 3-8 from the field, but he still had 19 points. That was because he went 11-12 from the free throw line. I'm not used to seeing that many free throw attempts next to Gatens' name in the box score. It's definitely good that the teams best free throw shooter was able to get to the line that much.
Devyn Marble, welcome to the Big 10! Marble had 18 points on 8-13 shooting (65.3% effective FG%). However, he continued to struggle from the free throw line, making only 1-4. Flipping over to this game, I saw Marble getting into the lane almost at will. Indiana had a lot of trouble stopping him. I don't expect Marble to do this again in the Big 10 for the rest of the year, but it's good to see flashes of the future down the road.
During a commercial break from the Packers and Bears game, I switched over to see Eric May catch an outlet pass from Bryce Cartwright and throw down a thunderous dunk. He went on to follow that up on the next possession, by taking the ball the full length of the court, weaving in and out of Indiana guys, and finishing at the rim again. On the day he had 11 points on 4-5 shooting (no three point attempts) and 3-4 from the line. I have yet to watch the game on DVR, but the stats seem to indicate that May was more aggressive with the ball today, and that's a welcome sight.
Brommer followed up his breakout game at Ohio State by playing 12 minutes today. He did go 2-2 from the field for 5 points and grabbed 2 offensive rebounds and 1 defensive rebound. However, he had 4 fouls in those 12 minutes. It's hard for McCaffery to give him playing time when he can't keep himself on the court.
What happened to Jordan Hulls today? The nation's leader in effective FG%, shot 1-8, including 1-5 from downtown. He finished with 7 points. That makes it three straight games where Hoffarber, Diebler, and now Hulls have struggled to find their shot. At what point should the credit be given to the Hawkeyes defense?
Christian Watford was trying to make up for the loss of Verdell Jones III and the slumping Jordan Hulls, as he put up 30 points today. He put up 20 shots, making 10 of them (3 behind the arc). He's a pretty good player.
I figured that Iowa would force more turnovers than they did today, but they still forced Indiana to turn the ball over on 19.2% of their possessions. Iowa lost the turnover battle, though, giving it up on 24.4% of their possessions. This ended up being a moot point, considering the disparity in shooting between the two teams.
Of Iowa's 19 turnovers, 11 were from Cartwright and Basabe combined (6 and 5). In the preview I expressed my wishes for Cartwright and Basabe to cut down their turnovers. Obviously, I did not get my wish.
Iowa and Indiana both ended 20.5% of their possessions with assisted baskets. Iowa finished with a 0.84 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. Indiana finished with a 1.07 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
Indiana's Derek Elston did his best to single-handedly win the rebounding battle for the Hoosiers. He grabbed 7 offensive (27.6%) and 5 defensive (31.3%) rebounds in 22 minutes.
Indiana won the rebounding battle 51.3% to 48.7%. They outrebounded Iowa on the offensive glass 37% to 34.5% and 65.5% to 63% on the defensive glass.
Needless to say, rebounding, once Iowa's strength, is not so much in Big 10 play. In seven Big 10 games, Iowa has grabbed only 47.16% of all rebounds compared to 54.39% in non-conference play. Offensively, they have dropped from 36.43% to 33.47%, and on defense, they have fallen to 61.71% from 72.64%. Let's hope this changes.
Overall, Iowa averaged 1.17 points per possession against Indiana. The Hoosiers only managed 0.99 points per possession.

Iowa vs Indiana Men's Basketball Preview

2011-01-22T13:32:00.003-06:00

Everybody is claiming that this is one of Iowa's best shots to win a Big 10 game. While I think Penn State (even with their upsets) is Iowa's best chance, Indiana is beatable. However, it won't be easy. Indiana has some serious offensive firepower, and Iowa well, they are offensively challenged at times. I could see this game being close, but I could also see Indiana pull a Northwestern on the Hawkeyes too.

Iowa's Offense vs Indiana's Defense:

Iowa has shot a 47.97% effective FG%, which is right around what Indiana has held opponents to shooting wise. So, expect Iowa to shoot pretty close to their average against this Indiana defense. The offensive rebounding battle will be interesting. Iowa has been 9% above average at getting second chances, while Indiana has been 9% better at limiting them. Indiana seems to have a fouling problem, as they are a ridiculous 24% below average at keeping their opponents off the free throw line (so bad, I had to rescale all the graphs down to 70 for this post). Iowa is slightly below average at giving out assists. Indiana is decent at limiting them, but not so good that Iowa couldn't have a pretty good game in this regard. The same goes with turnovers. Indiana is about average at forcing turnovers, which could be key in this game. If Iowa can keep the turnovers under control (I'm looking at you Cartwright and Basabe), they have a very good chance at winning this game.

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Actual In-Season Improvement: Melsahn Basabe

2011-01-22T12:00:00.002-06:00

There are a number of reasons for Hawkeye basketball fans to be excited about the player they have in Melsahn Basabe. The most obvious, is that he is just a freshman, and Iowa has three more years of him presumably only getting better. As a true freshman he has been Iowa's most consistent rebounder (outside of Archie who doesn't get regular playing time) and one of Iowa's best offensive threats.

I want to look at three categories for Basabe: scoring, offensive rebounding, and defensive rebounding to see if he has made any in-season improvements during his freshman campaign.

First, scoring:

His points per game have increased pretty consistently as the season has gone on. His Big 10 numbers also prove this point, as he is averaging 11.83 points per game compared to the 8.5 he put up in non-conference games.

Like with Cartwright, let's look at his shooting to see if he has improved that.

His effective FG% is slightly trending upward. Overall though, he is shooting 54.17% in Big 10 play compared to 54.93% in non-conference play. The Purdue game clearly hurt his Big 10 effective FG%.

Just as I did with Cartwright, I want to look at how many shots per game Basabe is taking.

I would say that that's a pretty big increase. In non-conference play Basabe averaged 5.92 field goal attempts per game. So far in Big 10 play, he has put up an average of 8 shots per game. Just like Cartwright, Basabe is putting up two extra shots per game, at the expense of another player's shots (:cough: Eric May :cough:). So, Basabe is scoring more points, but that isn't really the result of him improving his shooting. He's just the same scorer he was before, only now, he is taking more shots per game.

What about offensive rebounding?

Holy crap. Basabe has seen his trendline move from about 8% to about 17%. That's a rather large increase in the percentage of offensive rebounds he has come down with over the season. During non-conference play, Basabe pulled down 10.38% of all offensive rebounds available while he was in the game. In Big 10 play, that number increased to 18.52%. If your curious, that dip around the Drake and Louisiana Tech games is when Fran said Basabe was terribly sick with the flu.

Defensive Rebounds tell another story though.

His defensive rebounds have actually declined by about 2% over the course of the season. Looking at his Big 10 defensive rebounding rate of 22.73% compared to his 20.28% defensive rebounding rate for non-conference games, though, it looks to be the opposite. That is because the Northwestern game where Basabe grabbed 47.62% of all defensive rebounds available while on the court, is inflating his Big 10 defensive rebounding rate. Otherwise, Basabe has seen a slight decrease in defensive rebounds, but nothing too large to be worried about. He has pretty much stayed the same in this regard also.

Overall, Basabe is similar to Cartwright, in that he is shooting the same but scoring more points because he is taking more shots per game. But, he has actually improved in one of the categories that is important to a player who plays Basabe's position. His offensive rebounding continues to get better as the season goes on. His defensive rebounding has dropped off a little bit, but is still over 20% which is very good. The total package of double digit points per game on an above 50% effective FG%, coupled with an offensive rebounding rate around 13% and a defensive rebounding rate around 20% is a very good player. Especially, for a true freshman. I look forward to seeing Basabe's improvement as the season goes on, but I also look forward to seeing his game get even better over the off season. Considering he is only a freshman this year, the Big 10 better watch out for the next three years.

Is Cartwright Getting Better?

2011-01-22T11:00:00.024-06:00

Recently, Iowa's point guard Bryce Cartwright has been scoring more and more of the team's points. He is averaging 10.89 points per game currently, which has given off the appearance that he may indeed be finally putting it together. Now, he has gone from 10.33 points per game in non-conference play, to 12 points per game in Big 10 play. Does that mean he's gotten better though? Not necessarily. Let's take a look.

First, we've already established that Cartwright is scoring more points per game recently. So, let's look at his effective FG% to see if he's shooting more efficiently than he was in the beginning of the season.

I added a trendline because the pattern is hard to discern otherwise. As you can see, Cartwright's shooting has been on a very very slight downward trend since the beginning of the season. When you look at his effective FG% in non-conference play and Big 10 play it tells the same story. In non-conference play he shot a 42.15% effective FG%. In Big 10 play so far, he has shot a 41.67% effective FG%. Not a huge difference, but clearly his shooting has not gotten any better.

The only other explanation could be that he is just taking more shots per game. Well, let's see.

The trendline is increasing here. So obviously, Cartwright has taken more shots per game recently. During non-conference play, Cartwright put up 10.08 shots per game. In the Big 10 portion of the schedule, he has put up 12 shots per game. Two more shots per game seems to explain the rise in points scored.

So, is that it? Is that all Cartwright should be judged on? Not quite. Since he's the point guard, it would only be fair to look at his assists and turnovers too. First, assists:

That's good to see. The trendline shows a tiny increase. Overall, Cartwright has averaged 0.16 assists per minute in Big 10 and non-conference play. So, just like with his shooting, his assist rate has remained pretty stable.

What about Turnovers?

Also good to see. However, in Big 10 play, he has averaged 0.11 turnovers per minute compared to his 0.10 turnovers per minute during the non-conference part of the schedule. That doesn't fit with the trendline. What gives? Well, it's not necessarily bad news. I lean more toward it meaning Cartwright is the same as he has been. If you look at his performances against really good Big 10 defenses in Ohio State (0.17 and 0.14 turnovers per minute) and Purdue (0.14 turnovers per minute) he turns the ball over more against them. When he plays a soft defense like Northwestern, he only averaged 0.05 turnovers per minute. Those high numbers against the good defenses are more than plenty to inflate his Big 10 average so far through only six games. After playing the rest of the Big 10 schedule that number could very well level out to around 0.10 again.

Now, I'm not trying to say anything negative about Cartwright, because I'm glad he is on this team. I can't imagine what this team would do if Fran never recruited another point guard. But, it doesn't look Cartwright has improved as the season has gone on. Good news is, he hasn't gotten worse either. There is still a little over a month of basketball left to play, which means he still has time to show some improvement. He also has the whole off season, as it definitely isn't unheard of for players to make huge strides out of season. I just wanted to see if Cartwright had indeed made strides or not. In this case it turns out not. But, hey, at least he's consistent.

Iowa vs Ohio State Recap Part II: 70-48 L

2011-01-20T07:40:00.000-06:00

Well, that wasn't surprising.

Bullet Points!

You know that Iowa is in trouble if Andrew Brommer is the player of the game. In all seriousness though, Brommer played great last night. He had 12 points on 8 shots and 2 free throws (both of which, he actually made!). However, scoring was only a little part of what he did against the Buckeyes. He also had 6 rebounds (3 offensive and 3 defensive), 2 assists, 1 steal, and 3 blocks. Even more miraculous, was that he only had 3 fouls in 30 minutes of play.
Even though Brommer had a great game, I'm not on the "Free Andrew Brommer" bandwagon yet. Cole has hit a bit of a rough stretch (which continued last night), but he still has better number's than Brommer. Cole averages slightly more points per minute, 0.29 to Brommer's 0.27. He also grabs more rebounds. Brommer has pulled down 13.27% of all defensive rebounds and 9% of all offensive rebounds while in the game this year. Cole, on the other hand has grabbed 19.08% of all defensive and 12.75% of all offensive rebounds this year. They both have shot about a 51% effective field goal percentage, but Cole makes more of his free throws. The only outright advantage that Brommer has over him is in assists. At this point, I don't really buy into the Brommer hype until he starts becoming a more consistent scorer or better rebounder.
Gatens failed to reach double digits in points for the first time since the UNI game. What I found interesting was his shot selection. He went 4-11 from the floor, but only took 2 three pointers, both of which he missed. 4-9 shooting from two point range, isn't a real great percentage. Now, I fell asleep trying to watch this game on my DVR, but after this game and the Minnesota game it felt like Gatens had missed a lot of two point field goals lately. So, I looked it up in my handy spreadsheet. In January, Gatens has shot a FG% of 36.67% on two point field goals. In that same time frame, he has also shot 43.33% from behind the arc. Good to see the numbers match what the eyes are seeing.
May followed up his great performance against Minnesota, with a not so great performance against Ohio State. In 18 minutes, May went 0-2 shooting, grabbed 1 rebound, had 1 turnover, and picked up 1 foul. I said Iowa needed a big game out of Gatens and May considering Ohio State would probably game plan for Basabe this time around. Well, those two didn't have great games, and Iowa got run out of the building.
Since I haven't seen all of this game yet, I don't know what adjustments the Buckeyes made to guarding Basabe this time around, but he still had 11 points. They weren't as efficient as usual, since it took him 10 shots and 2 free throws, but it's good to see that Basabe hasn't hit that "freshman wall" and is still giving Big 10 teams trouble.
Cartwright was Cartwright last night. Scoring 10 points on an inefficient 13 shots. He also had 7 assists and 5 turnovers. Cartwright would be so good if he could cut down the amount of shots it takes to get him to double digits and if he could cut down on the turnovers. He will be a Senior next year, and if he makes those improvements, Iowa will be much better.
Sullinger was relatively quiet this time around, only scoring 13 points and grabbing 9 rebounds. David Lighty was the star for Ohio State. He had 18 points (85.7% effective FG%), 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. They just have too many good players.
Iowa had another bad shooting performance last night, shooting a 40.9% effective FG% compared to Ohio State's 52.7%. In Big 10 play, Iowa has shot a 47.2% effective FG%, and allowed opponents to shoot a 60.06%. Yep. That's why Iowa is 0-6 in conference play.
Looking at points per possession, Iowa scored a whopping 0.69 points per possession (easily the lowest of the year). Ohio State averaged 1.01 points per possession. Not surprisingly, as Iowa has gotten in to Big 10 play, their points per possession has dropped and their opponents has risen. Take a look:

Iowa lost the rebounding battle again, as Ohio State pulled down 52.7% of all rebounds to Iowa's 47.3%. On the offensive glass, Iowa grabbed 33.3% to Ohio State's 38.7%. On the defensive boards, Iowa grabbed 61.3% compared to the Buckeyes 66.7%. It's starting to look like Iowa's one real strength is starting to diminish in conference play, as rebounding has been just as bad as points per possession recently:

The one real positive from this game, was that Iowa was good at causing turnovers. In fact, they forced a turnover on 29% of Ohio State's possessions. The bad news was they also turned the ball over on 33.3% of their own possessions.
For assists, Iowa finished with a 0.52 assist to turnover ratio, finishing just 17.42% of their possessions with an assisted field goal. Ohio State finished with a 0.9 assist to turnover ratio, ending 25.89% of their possessions with an assist.

To wrap this game up, it sucked. The end.

Iowa vs Ohio State Men's Basketball Preview: Round 2

2011-01-19T06:42:00.001-06:00

Short on time and sleep. So, let's get to it.

Iowa's Offense vs Ohio State's Defense:

Iowa is a pretty mediocre offense overall. They excel at offensive rebounding (9% above NCAA average), and they did win that battle against Ohio State last game. Iowa struggles to shoot the ball though, coming in slightly under the NCAA average in effective FG%. Last time, Iowa shot a 48.3% effective FG%, which is right around their season average.

Ohio State's defense is very good. They have held opponents to 3% below average in shooting this year. Iowa probably won't get to the free throw line very often, considering Ohio State is 81% above average at keeping opponents off of it, and Iowa is 4% below average at getting there. Ohio State has been good at limiting their opponents second chances, but last time Iowa grabbed 45.7% of their misses. So, who knows? Expect Iowa to turn the ball over early and often, as the Buckeyes are 25% better than average at forcing teams to cough it up. On paper, Iowa doesn't match up real well here.

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Iowa vs Minnesota Recap

2011-01-17T22:19:00.000-06:00

Bullet points!

This game was a story of 2 periods for Iowa. In the first half, I was updating my like nine Twitter followers that Iowa was attempting to finish the 1st half with more turnovers than field goals made. Well, the good news was, they didn't. The bad news was, they had 8 turnovers and 8 field goals made in the the first half.
Iowa shot 8-25 from the field and 2-11 from three point range in the first half. Good for a 36% effective FG%. Not good.
In the second half, Iowa was hot for the first 10 minutes and then cooled off during the last 10 minutes. For the second half they shot 14-34 and 4-8 from three point range. Good for a 47.1% effective FG%, which is slightly below average, but better than 36%. They outscored the Gophers in the second half 40 to 39. Too bad they were outscored 19 to 30 in the first half.
Overall, Iowa shot 22-59 and 6-19 from three point range. Good for a terrible 42.4% effective FG%, which is about 6% below their season average. They did make 9 of their 11 free throws. So, that was good. Unfortunately, they only made it to the free throw line 11 times.
Minnesota didn't shoot all that well from the field either. Iowa held them to a 45.7% effective FG%. About 5.5% below their season average. The big thing on offense for Minnesota was free throws. They got to the line 37 times! Their free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goals attempted) was an absurd 0.80 (!) because they took 46 shots from the field and 37 free throws. That is pretty much double Minnesota's season average.
13 of Iowa's 23 fouls came from Cole with 5 (fouled out), Basabe with 4, and May with 4.
The players of the game for Iowa were Basabe and May. First, Basabe. He only took 3 shots (made 2 of them) and had 4 rebounds (2 offensive and 2 defensive) in the first half. Not a huge part of the offense. In the second half, Basabe exploded for 16 points on 6 field goals and 4 free throws. He also grabbed 9 rebounds (3 offensive and 6 defensive). He finished the night with a double-double 20 points (66.7% effective FG%) and 13 rebounds. He grabbed 14.6% of all offensive and 26.1% of all defensive rebounds. Both of which are above his season average. Hopefully we can see more of this Basabe as the season goes on.
It was good to see May have a good game after dealing with an injury lately. Like Basabe, he was relatively quiet in the first half offensively, minus a nice fastbreak dunk. In the second half, May went 4-6 including 3-3 from behind the arc, scoring 11 points. For the game, May scored 16 points with a 75% effective FG%.
Cartwright had 10 points in this game, with most of them coming in the second half. I was impressed with his play in the second half, but for the game he still had at least one missed lay up that bugged me. He did go 4-5 from the free throw line, but it still took him 10 shots to get his 6 points from field goals. I'm just hoping he can be a more efficient scorer.
Gatens scored double digits again. The problem was it took him 21 shot attempts to score those 13 points (30.9% effective FG%). Similar to the Purdue game, Gatens shot 30% (3-10) from three point range. Gatens tried to get in the paint and draw the foul against the Gophers, and it never worked. Every time he would get into the paint his shot was blocked as he went to the ground. Gatens is the best player on the team, but he has always had trouble when he's contested in the lane.
I found it funny that Iowa's best shooter (Gatens) and Minnesota's best shooter (Hoffarber) were both cold on the same night. Unlike Gatens, Hoffarber made none of his three point attempts. He was 2-10 from the field and 0-4 from behind the arc. For once, Iowa held the opposing team's shooter in check this year.
The Gophers had a block party on Sunday night. Ralph Sampson III swatted 7 or 19.4% of the Hawkeyes total shots. As a team, Minnesota blocked 12 of Iowa's shots (20.3%). That along with the free throws killed Iowa in this game.
Another thing that killed Iowa was Minnesota outrebounding them. It's not really surprising since Iowa wasn't really favored in rebounding. But, Basabe was the only one that actually seemed to stand a chance at pulling the ball down against the Gophers. Minnesota grabbed 56% of all the rebounds to Iowa's 44%. They also grabbed 42.9% of the offensive rebounds (horrible) and 69.2% of the defensive rebounds. Iowa managed to secure 30.8% of the offensive rebounds (5% below season average) and 57.1% of the defensive rebounds (12% below season average).
Iowa finished 20% of their possessions with an assisted field goal, and 16.7% of their possessions with a turnover (thanks to only turning the ball over twice in the second half). Good for a 1.2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
Minnesota finished 28.33% of their possessions with an assisted field goal (85% of their field goals were assisted...), and 18.3% of their possessions with a turnover. Good for a 1.55 assist to turnover ratio.
Iowa averaged 0.98 points per possession. Minnesota average 1.15 points per possession.
To sum it up, Minnesota free throws, blocks, and rebounding are what killed the Hawkeyes in this game.

Iowa vs Minnesota Men's Basketball Preview

2011-01-16T09:50:00.001-06:00

The Hawkeyes are headed to the Twin Cities to take on a team that they haven't beat since 2007. Unfortunately, I don't think that's going to change after this game. From here on out, anytime that Iowa wins, aside from Penn State (even though they upset Illinois and Michigan State) and Indiana, it's going to be considered an upset.

Iowa's Offense:

Not much has changed with Iowa. They are still around average at shooting, and slightly below average at getting to the free throw line, sharing the ball, and not turning it over. Their offensive rebounding rate fell after getting embarrassed by Northwestern.

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Iowa vs Northwestern Recap

2011-01-14T06:00:00.003-06:00

This game doesn't deserve an intro.

Bullet points!

Well, I said Northwestern could shoot... Wednesday night was a mixture of bad defense from Iowa and ridiculously hot shooting from Northwestern. They came into the game with a 54.52% effective FG%. During the game, they shot a 64.52% effective FG%. Coming into the game they had made 39.39% of their three pointers. During the game they made 50%.
I also said Northwestern was bad on defense. Iowa had a 48.16% effective FG% coming into Wednesday night's game. In 40 minutes, they put up a 59% effective FG%. Second best this season, only to the 66.67% they put up against SIU Edwardsville.
I also told you, that Iowa should win the rebounding battle easily. Yeah, about that. I have no idea what happened. Basabe did his job on the boards. He grabbed 8 defensive rebounds (47.62% defensive rebound rate) and 4 offensive rebounds (26.27% offensive rebound rate) in 21 minutes of play. Cole, actually grabbed around his season average in defensive rebounds, but did not grab any offensive ones. When you take into consideration time on the court, (he grabbed 4 defensive rebounds in 22 minutes) Cole had a 22.73% defensive rebounding rate. He averages 19.57% on the year.
I think the rebounding gap lies with Archie and Brommer, who both played a combined 19 minutes in the game and grabbed no rebounds. This is the one good thing that Archie can consistently do, and against Northwestern he just wasn't himself.
Staying on rebounding. Northwestern grabbed 59% of all rebounds to Iowa's 41%. They also out-rebounded Iowa on the offensive glass 43.75% to 24.14%. Not to mention, on the defensive boards 75.86% to 56.25%. That is the worst Iowa has been in rebounding this season. Those totals are also, all way above Northwestern's season average, especially, the 43.75% offensive rebounding. Coming into the game, they had only grabbed 27.74% of all offensive rebounds available on the season.Yeah. This was a great game!
One of the few bright spots in this game was Matt Gatens. He shot 5 of 8 from three point land, and made all 3 of his free throws. He finished with 20 points on 10 field goals attempted and 3 free throws attempted. That was good for an effective FG% of 85% (!). He has been the only consistent player on this team since Big 10 play started, shooting a 70.24% effective FG%, making 53.57% of his three point attempts, and averaging 17 points a game. At least we know what we can expect out of one Iowa player once the game starts.
Cartwright also had an offensive explosion against Northwestern. Going off for 25 points. Even better, was that he did it on 16 shots and 8 free throw attempts. That was good for a 56.25% effective FG%, much more efficient than his season average of 42.94%. Don't expect this efficiency to be an every game thing, because most of the Big 10 doesn't play defense like Northwestern.
Staying with Cartwright. I only caught the last 10 minutes of this game because I forgot to set my DVR, and the Big Ten Network didn't replay it that night (not that I can blame them after the massacre that took place). But, listening to the second half on the radio driving home, I heard Dolph and Bobby get excited every time the Hawkeyes would make a shot to cut the lead. However, they would immediately go from encouraged to depressed because of Cartwright's defense. They literally sounded like Cartwright's defense was driving them to drink on the air. Since Iowa is so thin at point guard, this is what we are going to get. An offensive minded, decent passing, turnover prone, inefficient scoring, matador-like defending, point guard. He has nights where he can be special, but there are nights where he will frustrate the living hell out of you. Last night was a little of both.
Eric May's injury has really hurt this team. I feel bad for Eric because he was in a shooting slump in December, only to get injured before the Ohio State game. May can put the ball in the basket, rebound, and play defense. Not having him do all of that at full strength, is not doing this team any favors during Big 10 play.
I defended Basabe and Cole on their rebounding, but I was surprised at how little they scored against Northwestern. Mirkovic is a good, tall post player for Northwestern, but he can only guard one of the duo. Basabe went 3 of 3 from the field and Cole went 1 of 2. Even more weird, when I got home, I thought I heard the Big Ten Network announcers say that Northwestern didn't even try their 1-3-1 zone until later in the second half. Hopefully, the Basabe and Cole who showed up in the Ohio State game will come back and visit soon.
Iowa struggled from the free throw line, making 54.55% on 12 of 22 shooting. But, when you look at who missed them, it's easy to see why. Marble went 1 for 6 and Brommer went 0-2. That is 7 of the 10 missed free throws there. Marble is shooting 50% from the line this year, and Brommer 30.43%. When those guys are taking 8 of your team's free throws, you should automatically prepare for the worst.
Iowa finished 16.07% of their possessions with an assisted field goal and 21.91% with a turnover. Good for a 0.73 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
Northwestern ended 33.67% of their possessions with an assist and 20.49% of their possessions with a turnover. Good for a 1.64 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
Iowa averaged 1.04 points per possession. Northwestern averaged 1.32.
After letting Northwestern shoot lights out on them, Iowa has now allowed Big 10 opponents to shoot a 64.76% effective FG% (!), compared to the 44.69% they held non-conference opponents too. You should expect an increase, but 20%? Let's hope this gets fixed.

This game doesn't deserve an outro either.

Iowa's Defense 2003-2010 (The Rest of the Leftovers)

2011-01-11T16:00:00.003-06:00

If you've read the the accompanying posts, you know how this goes. Since I'm snowed in today, I have time for more analysis than I did in the offensive one.

First, defensive points allowed per game:

The 2006 version of Iowa's defense was the only team to ever give up more (just slightly) than Big 10 average points per game. If you're looking up points per game and these don't match, it's because I took out points given up on kick returns or any other plays that the defense was not on the field. 2003, 2008, and 2009 were really stingy on points. 2010 was really good at this through the first eight games, the last four games raised their average to about 16.

Iowa's eight year average: 16.17 defensive points per game allowed
Big 10 eight year average: 21.94 defensive points per game allowed

Iowa vs Northwestern Men's Basketball Preview

2011-01-11T14:00:00.005-06:00

Northwestern is coming into Carver Wednesday night, after just picking up their first conference win of the season against Indiana. They are a pretty interesting team. My opinion on them, is that they had a pretty cupcake non-conference schedule, but have struggled anytime they have faced a good opponent. For a team that is looking to finally make an NCAA tournament, their signature wins this year are probably against Creighton, Georgia Tech, and Indiana. They did only lose by 3 to Michigan State at home, but on the road they lost to Illinois and Purdue by double digits. Interestingly enough, in this series over the last two years, the home teams are undefeated. Even better, Northwestern hasn't won in Carver since the Alford Era (or since I was a Sophomore in high school, I'm getting old), January 10, 2004. Also, in that time frame, Iowa has only won once at Welsh-Ryan Arena. The home team has won ten out of the last twelve meetings. In other words, Iowa could easily get their first Big 10 win Wednesday night.

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Iowa's Offense 2003-2010 (Leftovers from the Last Post)

2011-01-10T14:30:00.004-06:00

In the first post I only gave you the percentages because I felt that it was already long enough, and there was no need to go overboard with information. In this one, I wanted to put the actual numbers because it is interesting to see things like in what years the Big 10 was especially tough. Also, I calculated more than the five stats I used for the earlier post, and I figured they might as well not go to waste. There will be less analysis in this post, but plenty of graphs to look at.

Offensive Points Per Game:

Three seasons above average.

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Iowa vs Purdue Recap

2011-01-09T22:15:00.000-06:00

Not going to lie. I paid much more attention to the first half of this game than the second half. I had the game on the entire time, but got distracted by other things after halftime. I saw some of the action, but a lot of it seems like a blur of Iowa making some mistakes, making a few good plays, and then making even more mistakes. Not surprisingly, Purdue capitalized on these mistakes and ran away with a game that was never in doubt once the tip was won.

Bullet Points!

Congratulations to the Hawkeyes on a new record today! This was their worst shooting game of the season. Previously this year they had shot a 38.97% effective FG% against Xavier. Today, they shot 38.46% vs Purdue. That is going to hurt the season average.
The Hawkeyes are not a great shooting team to start with, as they came into the game shooting about NCAA average in effective FG%. But, Purdue is a really good defensive team. They came into the game today holding opponents to 43.1% effective FG% on the season. NCAA average was 48.9%. Yeah. They are good.
Iowa shot 37.78% on their two point field goals today. Interestingly enough, that is only second worst this year to the 33.33% they put up against Alabama (they won that game?).
The 7 three point attempts by Iowa is the least amount taken in a game this year. The previous least was 10 in the first game of the year against South Dakota State.
Iowa made 12-16 free throws today, which marks three out of the last four games that they have made at least 70% of their free throws. So, maybe they're fixing that problem.
Purdue was really focusing on Gatens defensively. They know he likes to catch and shoot from behind the three point line, and they limited him to three shots from there. Gatens went 4 of 10 from the field, and only 1 of 3 from behind the arc. He was still the only Hawkeye in double figures, with 13. But, it was harder than usual, coming on 10 field goal attempts and 4 free throw attempts.
The Hawkeyes had a tough time converting on shots around the basket today. In the first half I specifically remember seeing Cartwright miss at least two layups after bringing the ball up court and getting into the paint right away. Brommer also missed a layup pretty horribly, and I still have no idea what that was about. Marble missed one or two pretty close to the hoop also. There were probably more, but there were so many of them they all started to blur together for me (notice a trend?). Early on, Iowa actually would have been more in the game if they hadn't missed all of these.
Remember when I said JaJuan Johnson was their best shot blocker? He had 4 blocks. Purdue, as a team, had 9 blocks.
Also, remember when I said they had shooters? Well, Ryne Smith, who shot 49.1% from three point range coming into the game, shot 6 of 9 from there. ISU's Christopherson, OSU's Diebler, and now Purdue's Smith. Iowa has to find a way to shut down opposing teams shooters.
Devon Archie got 20 minutes of playing time today. Mostly due to the fact that Iowa was getting killed, and Basabe and Cole seemed to be ineffective down low. Basabe had 8 points and Cole had 6, but Basabe pulled down 3 rebounds and Cole pulled down 0. Archie is by no means a better player than either Basabe or Cole, but he is the teams best rebounder. He has proven it time and time again while in the game, that he can be a rebounding machine. Today was no different, he grabbed 2 offensive rebounds and 6 defensive rebounds. I really wish he could put it together, because he is a great rebounder when he is on the court. The problem is, he doesn't see the court that often.
Oh yeah. In 20 minutes of play, Archie grabbed 38.71% of all defensive rebounds available while on the court. The next best on the team was Brommer with 17.2%.
Iowa ended 16.27% of their possessions with an assisted field goal today. Unfortunately, they ended 23.67% of their possessions with a turnover. A 0.69 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
Purdue ended 30.91% of their possessions with an assist today, and only 19.14% with a turnover. That was good for a 1.62 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
Remember how rebounding was supposed to be Iowa's strength? Yeah, well, not so much today. Purdue grabbed 55.38% of all rebounds compared to Iowa's 44.62%. On the offensive boards, Iowa grabbed 23.53% and Purdue grabbed 32.26%. Defensively, Iowa pulled down 67.74% and Purdue pulled down 76.47%. Probably didn't help that Cole didn't grab one single rebound and Basabe only had 3.
Overall, Iowa scored 0.77 points per possession, beating their previous low of 0.88 against Alabama (they really did win that game). While, Purdue scored 1.10 points per possession.

Wrapping this up, I figured a blowout like this was coming. Iowa has such a young team, and five of their players (including Archie who sat out last year) were playing in their first Big 10 road game. Purdue is a good team with no weaknesses. Add in that home crowd, and I figured it wouldn't be pretty. Next up for Iowa is Northwestern, and I really want to beat them. We can't lose to them in football and basketball this year. That one will be in Carver, so forget about Purdue and prepare for a good game. I know I've already erased this massacre from my DVR and mind.

Comparing Iowa to the Rest of the Big 10 Under Kirk Ferentz

2011-01-09T12:47:00.000-06:00

Kirk Ferentz became the Iowa coach in 1999. In the last 12 seasons Ferentz has had the same offensive and defensive coordinator. One of them is regarded as a genius of his trade, while the other is, well, not so highly regarded. The genius, and rightfully so, is Norm Parker who has given Iowa a reputation of great defenses. Ken O'Keefe is the not so highly regarded coordinator. Since O'Keefe has been offensive coordinator, Iowa has had some good offenses, but they've also seen some bad ones. Now, O'Keefe tends to get all the blame for Iowa's offensive strategy. I tend to believe that if Iowa had another offensive coordinator, not much would change because Ferentz is the boss and he tends to be very conservative.

Under Ferentz, Iowa has been a run first team no matter what. Ferentz is the kind of coach who has no problem late in games running the ball three times, punting it, and letting his defense win the game. He also is the kind of coach who will get up on a team by three scores in two quarters and then milk the clock the last two quarters (see 2010 Penn State). Iowa fans cannot complain too much, as Iowa has been successful under Ferentz. But, I wanted to look at how Iowa's offense and defense compared to the rest of the Big 10 in the Ferentz era to see if the praise of Parker and criticism of O'Keefe is warranted.

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Iowa vs Purdue Men's Basketball Preview

2011-01-08T12:23:00.001-06:00

Iowa goes on the road for the first time in conference play this Sunday, taking on Purdue. This would be the third Top 25 team in a row that Iowa has faced. So like usual, if they were to somehow come away with a victory this would be a huge upset. But, can they keep it close? Let's hope so. Here is how they match up.

Like always, here is Iowa's offense:

Just like last time, 100 is NCAA average. Anything below is below average, and anything above is above average. Iowa shot above it's season average vs Ohio State, which bumped them up slightly to exactly average by NCAA standards in shooting. However, they didn't get to the free throw line as much as they had been, so they were knocked down just a notch below average in free throw rate. However, thanks to Basabe and Cole rebounding well vs Ohio State, Iowa's offensive rebounding went up. It is now 14% above NCAA average for the year. Iowa's offense looks pretty average, but their one strength is rebounding.

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Iowa's Biggest Strength: Rebounding

2011-01-06T06:40:00.000-06:00

The one thing I've been really impressed with from the Hawkeyes men's basketball team so far this year has been their rebounding. So, here are a few graphs to show you what I mean.

The first graph shows the percentage of defensive rebounds Iowa has pulled down every game. The white line is the NCAA average. As you can see, for the most part this year Iowa has been above that white line in almost every game. Especially, around late November when Cole seemed to be recovered from the injured foot. Also, you can see that the only game in which they lost the defensive rebounding battle, was Long Beach State.

Now, Offensive Rebounds:

We have the same thing for offensive rebounds too. Long Beach State is the only team to crash the offensive boards harder than the Hawkeyes. Iowa is also above the white line in offensive rebounding in just about every game so far this season too.

I am becoming more impressed with this team's rebounding, especially after what they did against Ohio State. I wondered if their rebounding would decline once they got into the tougher competition of the Big 10. I know it's only two games in, but so far they are showing that their rebounding skill is for real.

Iowa vs Ohio State Recap

2011-01-05T21:38:00.002-06:00

Well, that game was fun. Even though it was a loss, I thoroughly enjoyed watching last night's game. I mean, Iowa led at halftime only to give it up, but come back from a double digit deficit and lose by five to the second ranked team in the nation. I'm not usually a moral victory type of person, but for a young team in their first year under a new coach, I would consider this a great outcome. I predicted a double digit loss, and that's what it looked like would happen when Ohio State went on their run in the second half. But, Iowa played tough and clawed back into the game. They even got within three with thirty seconds left. They didn't win last night, but this team showed a lot of heart.

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Eric May's Different Approach in December

2011-01-03T21:42:00.002-06:00

Similar to the Gatens post, I want to take a deeper look at Eric May's December. In November he was the best player on the Iowa basketball team. December, though, was a different story. If you look at the number's May seems to have changed his strategy like Gatens did, but with different results.

Just like in the Gatens post let's start with Eric May's shooting:

You can see there is a big difference in the shooting percentages in both months. In November he was hitting almost any shot that he took. He made 60% of his three pointers, which led to a 60.42% effective FG%. Now, there is no way that May was going to keep shooting 60% from three point range. That is an unrealistic percentage for even the best shooters. In December he hit 36.36% of his three points shots. This is actually more realistic for May. He shot 28.7% from behind the arc last year, and it isn't crazy to think he could have improved his three point shooting into the mid 30% range. The problem with his shooting in December is that he only hit 30% of his two point shots. That knocked his unrealistically good effective FG% from November down to an unrealistically bad 40.38 FG%. The graph also shows that May has also not shot real well from the free throw line in either month.

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Iowa vs Ohio State Men's Basketball Preview

2011-01-03T15:00:00.128-06:00

Big 10 play kicked off last week with a loss to Illinois. Iowa played them pretty tough, but Illinois shot ridiculously well. Ohio State is the next Big 10 foe to visit Carver this Tuesday. So far this season, they seem to be the team to beat in the Big 10. But, how does Iowa match up?

First, let's look at Iowa's offense:

The offensive rating is simply the average of the five scores from the graph. 102 means that Iowa's offense has been a little above average so far. Clearly, this team's strength is offensive rebounding. So far they have been 12% above NCAA average in offensive rebounding percentage.

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The 2010 Iowa Hawkeyes Football Team: What Happened?

2011-01-02T14:00:00.008-06:00

The 2010 season did not go as many had hoped it would. Iowa had a huge returning senior class, a two year starter at quarterback, a wide receiver on the verge of almost every Iowa receiving record, and a dominant defense returning most of its starters. The first eight games of the season went about as planned. Iowa looked like one of the best teams in the Big 10. Their only two losses came on a just missed comeback against Arizona and a last minute loss to Wisconsin. Iowa then went on to blow out an undefeated Michigan State team, and suddenly they were in control of their own destiny. The next four games though did not go as expected. Iowa won in week ten versus Indiana, but it took a last second dropped pass. They then finished out the season with three straight losses and finished 7-5. So what was the difference in those first eight games compared to the last four games? Let's find out.

First, lets take a look at the passing game:

This is Stanzi's completions and pass attempts by game. For the most part the gap between Stanzi's completions and attempts seem to be the largest in Iowa's losses. But, notice how the gap between the two gets larger and stays larger after Michigan State. Meaning, that over the last four games of the year Stanzi's completion percentage took a dip.
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I Think it is Safe to Say that Matt Gatens is Healthy

2011-01-02T11:00:00.001-06:00

I touched briefly on this in an earlier post, but I wanted to dig a little deeper. Anybody who has watched Iowa basketball this year has noticed Matt Gatens is starting to play like the player we all knew he could be. The season didn't start off like Gatens would have liked. He dislocated his thumb in practice before the season, and missed the first three games of the season. Fans figured that the one part of his game that would suffer from this injury would be his shooting. Surely enough, it did in November. In December though, he played like his hand was no longer bothering him.

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Comparing the 2009-2010 Season to the 2010-2011 Season

2011-01-01T11:42:00.000-06:00

The Men's Basketball season is only about halfway over, but I think one thing is pretty clear. This year's team is better than last year's team. Now, I'm not going to make this post into a Lick-bashing/Fran-loving one, I'm simply curious as to what this year's team is doing better so far. In order to figure that out, I compared the numbers of this year's team and last year's team vs their non-conference opponents. Let's take a look.

First, the 2009-2010 Offense:

So, as you can see, Iowa was an above average shooting team last year against their non-conference opponents. Their rating of 108 means they shot 8% better than the NCAA D1 average in effective FG%. They were also above average at sharing the ball, averaging 19% more in assists to field goals made ratio than NCAA average. They also gave the ball away 7% less than the average NCAA team last year. However, they did have trouble getting second chance opportunities, as they were 13% worse than average at grabbing offensive rebounds. Not to mention, that they struggled getting to the free throw line. Their free throws attempted to field goals attempted ratio was 15% below NCAA average.

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Iowa Men's Basketball: Comparing November and December

2010-12-31T15:06:00.007-06:00

In November Iowa went 3-4 in it's first 7 games of the season. December was better to them, as they finished 4-2 including, winning two of three to instate rivals. But, besides the record, I want to look at the numbers and see how each player did in December compared to November.

First we'll look at playing time:

Nothing too surprising. The guys at the back of the bench have lost playing time as the schedule gets tougher. Also, Payne hasn't played due to injury, which has increased Cartwright's minutes. Gatens minutes have increased as he has gotten healthier, as have Cole's. The most interesting thing to me is that as the season has gone on, Fran seems to prefer Basabe, Cole, and Brommer over Archie.

Next, let's look at shooting:

Overall, the team shot pretty much the same in November and December. The team effective FG% (weights 3pt FG more than 2pt FG) was 48.93% in November and 48.66% in December. As you can see, Gatens getting healthy and heating up counteracted the negative effects of Eric May slumping all December. Cartwright's shooting slump in December was also counteracted by Cole getting healthier and Brommer shooting better.

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Iowa vs Illinois Stats Recap

2010-12-31T12:05:00.000-06:00

It was good to see Carver almost full again, even if there were some Illini fans responsible for that. This game marked the beginning of Big 10 conference play. Lets hope the Hawkeyes can pull off some upsets. Now, bullet points!

Iowa shot better than their season average. They made 52.5% of their 2pt FG (48.39% season average), 37.5% of their 3pt FG (33.19% season average), for a 53.91% effective FG% (48.81% season average). If you prefer FG% to eFG%, then they shot 46.88% (43.8% season average).
Unfortunately the Illini also shot better than their season average, as they were unconscious all night. They hit 63.33% of their 2pt FG, a ridiculous 72.22% of their 3pt FG. Both of those made for an insane 80.21% (thanks to all those 3pt FG) effective FG%, or 66.67% FG%. They just simply did not miss from when the ball was tipped until the final buzzer sounded.
Iowa's one lone advantage coming into this game was their rebounding. Especially, offensive rebounding, as Illinois was 6% worse than NCAA D1 average at letting opponents grab offensive rebounds. As predicted, the offensive rebounding was good. Iowa grabbed 40.54% of all offensive rebounds available. They also grabbed 66.67% of all defensive rebounds available, which is a little low for Iowa, but still better than Illinois. It looks like rebounding is Iowa's strength this year.
Technically, Illinois got more rebounds, 28 to 27 (50.91% to 49.09%), than Iowa. But Illinois only pulled down 33.33% of offensive rebounds available and 59.46% of defensive rebounds available. Both totals were about 7% lower than Iowa's totals.
Illinois shared the ball really well on offense (it also helped that they rarely missed a shot), finishing 29.78% of their possessions with an assisted FG. Iowa only finished 18.81% of their possessions with an assisted FG.
Iowa's defense did do a good job of winning the turnover battle, forcing Illinois into a turnover on 25.32% of their possessions. On offense, Iowa had a 1 to 1 assist to turnover ratio, also turning the ball over on 18.81% of their possessions.
In the paint, Iowa scored 30 points or 71.43% of their 2pt FG. Illinois scored 28 points in the paint, good for 73.68% of their 2pt FG.
Iowa's player of the game was Matt Gatens. He had 21 points (0.53 points per minute), hitting 50% of his 2pt FG attempts, and 50% of his 3pt FG attempts. That was good for a 67.86% effective FG% or a 50% FG%.
Jarryd Cole also had a great game with 10 points and 9 rebounds (7 offensive rebounds). He had an insane 77.78 offensive rebounding rate vs Illinois. He also averaged 0.36 rebounds per minute on the court.
Overall, Illinois' shooting led to them averaging 1.3 points per possession. Iowa shot much better than their season average, coming up with 1.15 points per possession. In the end, though, it just wasn't enough.

Iowa's Running Game is Going to Be Just Fine

2010-12-31T10:41:00.000-06:00

Well, since the mass exodus of Brandon Wegher, Jewel Hampton, and now most likely Adam Robinson, Iowa is pretty thin at running back. While, Coker gave us a glimpse of great things to come, Iowa only has him and DeAndre Johnson left as scholarship backs. The incoming recruits at running back will likely get a chance to log a lot of playing time next year. But, I want to show you guys something:

That is a comparison of all of A-Rob's runs this year and all of Coker's this year. Now, Robinson had almost 100 more carries, but Coker still had over 100 carries total this year. Running behind the same offensive line (Coker even ran behind Koeppel at RG for a majority of the season), Coker had less of his carries go for a loss and for 0-2 yards. Most of Coker's runs actually went for 3-5 yards, while a majority of A-Robs were good for 0-2 yards. They were pretty much even in the amount of 6-9 yard runs they ripped off. However, Coker had 3% more of his carries go for over 10 yards than A-Rob did. To put that last stat into perspective, Coker had 20 carries of over 10 yards in just 114 carries on the year. Robinson had 30 carries of over 10 yards in 203 carries.

Conclusions? Coker is going to be good. Everybody loved Robinson early in the year, and he was only averaging 4.64 YPC. Coker averaged 5.47 YPC this year as a true freshman. As long as he stays healthy there is a bright future ahead for him. Not to mention, that Iowa's offensive line remains virtually intact for the next few years.

Insight Bowl Random Stats Dump

2010-12-31T10:20:00.000-06:00

Bullet points!

The man of the game was true freshman Marcus Coker. 221 Yards on 33 Carries for a 6.7 YPC and 2 TD. His 6.7 YPC is second this year to A-Rob's performance vs Iowa State (156 Yards 14 carries for 11.14 YPC). Coker averaged over 5 YPC in four of the seven games he carried the ball in this year. A-Rob only did that twice this year.
Here's a breakdown of Coker's Runs:

Loss of Yards: 1 Rush (3.03%)
0-2 Yards: 11 Rushes (33.3%)
3-5 Yards: 11 Rushes (33.3%)
6-9 Yards: 4 Rushes (12.12%)
10+ Yards: 6 Rushes (18.18%)

Now a look at Stanzi's completions:

Less than 10 Yards: 4 Completions (36.36%)
10-19 Yards: 4 Completions (36.36%)
20+ Yards: 3 Completions (27.27%)

Stanzi finished with a good 9.52 YPA because 7 of his 11 completions were for over 10 yards. Other than that Stanzi was inconsistent. This game was his season personified. Early in the game he looked like the Stanzi from the first eight games of the year, but after that he looked like the Stanzi from the last four games of the year.
Stanzi finished with a QB Rating of 113.3, which is actually his worst of the year. In the first eight games of the year he never had a QB Rating worse than 152.9. In the last four games of the year he could never do better than 144.4. His completion percentage was not very good in this game either. He completed only 52.38% of his passes. But, Stanzi didn't have to be great to get the victory, and the win is all that matters.
McNutt had four passes directed his way, and caught two of them. His catches were for 14 and 49 yards. That's a 31.5 YPC average. McNutt continued to do what he did all season, he stretched the field. Even if he only caught two balls, they were big plays for Iowa.
Coming into this game Missouri's red zone defense was vaunted, and known as the best in the country. As advertised, they were good. They held Iowa to 2 FG and 1 TD in four trips. The only reason Iowa didn't score on their fourth trip though, was because they were busy taking a knee to win the game.
Missouri's vaunted defense, also held Iowa to 0 three and outs this game.
Now to Iowa's defense. Gabbert had a ridiculous day passing. He dinked and dunked the Tiger offense down the field (7.61 YPA), and though he only had 1 passing TD, he constantly had the Tigers in the red zone.
Even though Gabbert completed 71.93% of his passes, it was the two passes he completed to Brett Greenwood and Micah Hyde that were his biggest. Of course Stanzi had 2 interceptions also, but Gabbert's had a bigger impact. Greenwood picked him off in the endzone before halftime, stopping Mizzou from getting any points. Then of course, Hyde's was the game winner. So, while Gabbert may have outplayed Stanzi, Gabbert also made the two biggest mistakes of the game.
Iowa's defense continued to bottle up the run. Allowing only 2.7 YPC to the Tigers.
The Hawkeyes also forced Missouri into a three and out on 2 of 11 drives (18.18%).
In the red zone, Iowa was only able to stop them once (Greenwood INT). Otherwise, Missouri scored 3 TD and 1 FG on 5 attempts.
Overall, Iowa was more efficient on the day. They averaged 7.7 yards per play compared to 5.95 by Missouri. Iowa also averaged 0.34 offensive points per play (doesn't include Hyde INT), and Missouri averaged 0.28 offensive points per play (Missouri ran 86 offensive plays to the Hawkeyes' 58).

Finally, congrats to the Hawkeyes on the bowl victory. This team really needed to end the season on a positive note, and it did just that.